Last week's data reiterated the tension between employment and the economy, with expectations for economic activity and spending remaining strong while employment data was weak. The key will be the extent to which October's non-farm data reflects the economy rather than hurricane-related noise. That turned attention to the November data. 
 Friday's jobs data makes us think the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points this week, bringing rates closer to neutral. The move is expected to be accompanied by minor changes to the statement, which is likely to mention that "the Committee remains confident that inflation is moving toward 2 percent on a sustained basis to achieve roughly balanced risks to the employment and inflation objectives." 
 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to signal further rate cuts at his press conference, but will not provide clear guidance on the timing or pace of cuts. Instead, we think he will reiterate that the Fed will make a meeting-by-meeting decision and that the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. In particular, he may signal that the Fed may pause if the labor market is stronger than expected, or if inflation picks up. 
 However, we still expect the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points in December. As for 2025, the Fed will cut rates three more times in March, June and September, with risks tilted toward a higher rate path. This is based on a forecast that inflation remains tame, the labor market cools slightly, and the unemployment rate peaks at 4.2 percent.