2024-11-07 04:52
IndustryFX Daily: Three scenarios for payrolls and the dol
If payrolls fall below 100k today and unemployment surprisingly creeps higher, then we see a 50bp Fed cut in September becoming the market’s base case, which would result in big USD losses. Anything closer to the consensus 165k and a stable unemployment print would make 25bp more likely on the margin, and any USD weakness may fade quickly
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FX Daily: Three scenarios for payrolls and the dol
| 2024-11-07 04:52If payrolls fall below 100k today and unemployment surprisingly creeps higher, then we see a 50bp Fed cut in September becoming the market’s base case, which would result in big USD losses. Anything closer to the consensus 165k and a stable unemployment print would make 25bp more likely on the margin, and any USD weakness may fade quickly
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