Hong Kong
2024-11-07 23:00
IndustryA difficult time for the Fed
We can expect Fed Chairman Powell to steer clear of predictions as much as possible at his press conference later. It's just that social media won't let him off so easily, demanding guidance on the path of interest rates that Powell won't and can't provide.
As you can see, almost every well-known economist in the market believes that Trump's election would be an unmistakable disaster for the United States, including me. The prospect of tariffs has driven much of the rise in the dollar, the biggest haven in financial assets even if the source of risk in financial markets is the U.S. That was true in Trump's last term, and I don't think it will change anything in his current term.
But with three months to go before he officially takes office, it is too early to say that non-U.S. currency pairs will continue to fall, because that is a long time in financial markets for something unexpected to happen. For the Fed, all the current data points to the fact that they should and have good reason to keep cutting rates, but Trump's upcoming policies will tell inflation to pick up. So here I expect the inflationary impact of the policy to be visible in June 2025.
I'm putting forward a hypothesis here that if the Fed cuts rates as expected, 50 basis points each for the rest of this year and next year, we could see a spike in U.S. inflation by next summer and fall. At that point, there could be a disagreement over economic policy between Mr. Trump and the Fed.
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A difficult time for the Fed
Hong Kong | 2024-11-07 23:00
We can expect Fed Chairman Powell to steer clear of predictions as much as possible at his press conference later. It's just that social media won't let him off so easily, demanding guidance on the path of interest rates that Powell won't and can't provide.
As you can see, almost every well-known economist in the market believes that Trump's election would be an unmistakable disaster for the United States, including me. The prospect of tariffs has driven much of the rise in the dollar, the biggest haven in financial assets even if the source of risk in financial markets is the U.S. That was true in Trump's last term, and I don't think it will change anything in his current term.
But with three months to go before he officially takes office, it is too early to say that non-U.S. currency pairs will continue to fall, because that is a long time in financial markets for something unexpected to happen. For the Fed, all the current data points to the fact that they should and have good reason to keep cutting rates, but Trump's upcoming policies will tell inflation to pick up. So here I expect the inflationary impact of the policy to be visible in June 2025.
I'm putting forward a hypothesis here that if the Fed cuts rates as expected, 50 basis points each for the rest of this year and next year, we could see a spike in U.S. inflation by next summer and fall. At that point, there could be a disagreement over economic policy between Mr. Trump and the Fed.
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