Abstract:U.S. stocks continue to fall, Dow gold continues to fall!
Fundamentals:
U.S. stocks were turbulent last week after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 points as widely expected to curb soaring inflation and signaled it would continue to do so at its upcoming meeting. On Friday, the United States added 428,000 non-farm payrolls in April, higher than the expected 380,000, and the previous value was revised down to 428,000; of which the private sector added 406,000 jobs, compared with the previous value of 424,000, the unemployment rate was 3.6% in April, unchanged from the previous reading but weaker than the 3.5% expected.
This week, U.S. inflation data will be released, and if inflation rises further, volatility in the stock market could intensify. Investors also need to pay attention to speeches from Fed officials. China is also to publish closely-watched trade and inflation data and the UK is to publish GDP data, but growth is expected to slow.
Technical:
Dow: Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes continued their decline. The Dow fell for six consecutive weeks. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also fell for five consecutive weeks, setting the longest losing streak since 2011 and 2012, respectively record. The Dow bears continued as expected, reaching the target position of 32222. Continue to pay attention to the support position at the bottom of the range. If it falls below the Dow, the bears will continue to the next target of 30600.
USD: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond continued to rise, finally closing at 3.142%. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note hit its highest level since 2018. The US dollar index rose first and then fell. It stood at the 104 mark for the first time since December 2002 in the European session, and then gave up most of the gains in the day, and finally closed up 0.077% at 103.67. The US dollar index broke through the upper pressure level near 103.5 and reached a new high, chasing more attention to the profit and loss ratio, and paying attention to the position near 106 above.
Gold: Spot gold fluctuated and closed higher on Friday, once stood at $1,890 an ounce during the session. The April U.S. non-farm payrolls report released last week showed a decline in labor participation, and the U.S. index hit a new high of 104.074 since mid-December 2002. Gold continued its bearish decline. In the later period, the target position of 1850 below the range is concerned.
Crude oil: In terms of international oil prices, the two oil prices fluctuated upwards. WTI crude oil recovered the $110 mark, and finally closed up 1.8% at $110.49 per barrel; Brent crude oil also fluctuated widely, and finally closed up 1.86% at $113.03 per barrel. Crude oil prices hit a two-week high, and crude oil hit a two-week high. After the $110 mark, it retreated sharply, and finally closed up 0.94% at $108.53 per barrel; crude oil prices reached the target pressure level of 110, and the following concerns the target position of the 106 callback.
(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the forex market is risky, and investors should be cautious)
This week's economic events include: Japan's Monetary Policy Minutes and U.S. Services PMI on Monday, impacting JPY and USD. Tuesday's RBA Interest Rate Decision affects AUD, with German Factory Orders influencing EUR. Wednesday sees German Industrial Production and U.S. Crude Inventories impacting EUR and USD. Thursday: RBA Governor speaks, with U.S. Jobless Claims. Friday: China's CPI and Canada's Unemployment Rate affect CNY and CAD.
As we approach the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report on August 2, 2024, market participants are keenly observing the data for insights into the U.S. labor market. The report is expected to show an increase of 194,000 to 206,000 jobs for July, indicating modest growth. This suggests potential softening in the labor market. A weaker-than-expected report could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts, influencing the USD. Major currency pairs and gold prices will likely see volatility around the NFP release
The USD/JPY pair hovers around 152.50, just above a three-month low, as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan's policy decision, expecting a 10-basis-point rate hike and bond-buying tapering, which supports the Yen. A slight recovery in the US Dollar has paused the pair's rise, with the Dollar Index near 104.50 ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, where rates are expected to stay unchanged but with dovish guidance.
This week, key economic events expected to generate high volatility include China's Q2 GDP and retail sales data, impacting CNY. The US will release Core Retail Sales and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, affecting USD. The UK's CPI data will influence GBP, and the ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference will impact EUR. These events will drive significant market movements due to their influence on monetary policy and economic outlooks.