Abstract:The three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively, and spot gold continued to decline
Fundamentals:
Cleveland Fed President Mester reiterated his support for raising rates by 50 bps at each of the next two meetings. If monthly inflation data proves that inflation is falling by the time of the September FOMC meeting, the pace of rate hikes may slow, but if inflation fails to do so, then a faster pace of rate hikes may be necessary. That means the Fed could raise rates by 75 bps in September.
This week, investors will need to pay attention to U.S. retail sales data and earnings from retail stocks, as well as speeches from several Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, for more clues on the path of future rate hikes.
Technical:
Dow: US stocks rebounded collectively; the S&P 500 closed up 2.39% at 4023.89 points; the Dow closed up 1.47% at 32196.66 points; the NASDAQ closed up 3.82% at 11805 points. Technology stocks and Chinese stocks rose sharply, with Tesla up 5.71%, NVIDIA up 9.47%, Alibaba up over 8%, and XPENG Motors up over 11%; Twitter closed down nearly 10%. The Dow bears continued to pull back near 31000 below, focusing on the upper target position near 33200.
USD: Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose and ended at 2.928%. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated lower, showing an inverted V-shaped trend in the European session. It once stood at the 105 mark, continued to hit a new high since December 2002, and then retreated from the high level, and finally closed down 0.277% at 104.47. After the US dollar index fell back to a new high, chasing long does not have the advantage of holding positions, and pay attention to the first support position near 103.2 below.
Gold: Spot gold continued its decline last Friday, breaking below the $1,800 mark for the first time since February 4, and rebounded slightly in late trading, finally closing down 0.58% at $1,811.15 an ounce. At present, gold chasing short has no profit-loss ratio and price advantage, pay attention to the 1830 target position of the band callback target.
Crude oil: The two oil prices rose strongly. WTI crude oil regained the $110 mark and finally closed up 3.19% at $110.09 per barrel; Brent also stood at $111 per barrel and finally closed up 3.10% at $111.16 per barrel. The pressure level above crude oil is valid at 109.3, and attention is paid to the target position near the lower range position 97.
(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the forex market is risky, and investors should be cautious)
This week's economic events include: Japan's Monetary Policy Minutes and U.S. Services PMI on Monday, impacting JPY and USD. Tuesday's RBA Interest Rate Decision affects AUD, with German Factory Orders influencing EUR. Wednesday sees German Industrial Production and U.S. Crude Inventories impacting EUR and USD. Thursday: RBA Governor speaks, with U.S. Jobless Claims. Friday: China's CPI and Canada's Unemployment Rate affect CNY and CAD.
As we approach the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report on August 2, 2024, market participants are keenly observing the data for insights into the U.S. labor market. The report is expected to show an increase of 194,000 to 206,000 jobs for July, indicating modest growth. This suggests potential softening in the labor market. A weaker-than-expected report could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts, influencing the USD. Major currency pairs and gold prices will likely see volatility around the NFP release
The USD/JPY pair hovers around 152.50, just above a three-month low, as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan's policy decision, expecting a 10-basis-point rate hike and bond-buying tapering, which supports the Yen. A slight recovery in the US Dollar has paused the pair's rise, with the Dollar Index near 104.50 ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, where rates are expected to stay unchanged but with dovish guidance.
This week, key economic events expected to generate high volatility include China's Q2 GDP and retail sales data, impacting CNY. The US will release Core Retail Sales and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, affecting USD. The UK's CPI data will influence GBP, and the ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference will impact EUR. These events will drive significant market movements due to their influence on monetary policy and economic outlooks.