Mohicans markets ：Under the Monetary Tightening, the Non-US Market is Sluggish

Reminder: This article involves the technical analysis of 6 varieties of spot gold, spot silver, U.S. crude oil, Europe and the United States, GBPUSD, Australia and the United States. Starting from the distribution of market chips, the change data of options positions published on the CME official website is superimposed on the average order flow change data of large brokers in the industry to more accurately mark the market trading sentiment in important price ranges.

The order flow mainly refers to the following Oder Book data, which is updated every 20 minutes, taking XAUUSD international gold as an example:

The opinions and strategies provided in this article are for reference only. The data are all from large brokers. Please check them according to your needs. They are not investment suggestions. Please read the statement terms at the end of the article carefully.

Key Data

Market Overview

Long and Short News

On Monday, September 26, during the Asian session, the US dollar's gains slowed down, and geopolitical tensions and global recession fears attracted safe-haven buying. After the Fed raised interest rates, bargain-hunting buying has increased, and the price of gold is sticking above the 1655 support, and it is expected to usher in some short-term rebound opportunities. The market's expectations for the manufacturing PMI data in Europe and the United States in September are relatively pessimistic. At present, the U.S. dollar has dropped nearly 100 points from a high of more than 20 years, suggesting that market sentiment has been vented, and the short-term U.S. dollar index faces an increased risk of correction, which is expected to provide some opportunities for gold prices to rebound and adjust. Geopolitical tensions, a global economic recession, and a drop in global stock markets are also expected to provide safe-haven support for gold prices. Of course, many Fed officials will speak one after another this week, and it is more likely to be hawkish, which may limit the rebound of gold prices.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 15:30 on September 26, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical Point of View

CME Group options layout changes:

1675 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease slightly, resistance and bull target

1660 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance level

1650 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, strong resistance and long-short dividing point

1620 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, bear target

1610 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, bear target

1600 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, bear target

Order flow key point labeling (spot price):

1668 Trend rebound key resistance

1654-1660 Daily key resistance zone

1642-1643 Intraday key resistance

1625 Short-term bearish target

1600-1610 Daily line level bears first target and support

1550-1560 Daily level short second target

Technical Analysis

Gold remained under pressure amid hawkish rate hike expectations after U.S. data last week showed the economy remained strong. Friday's options data shows that there is a clear difference between the long and short sides of 1654, and the bears are betting continuously below, and the next move can be not small.

Affected by the higher US index in the Asian session, gold suffered a setback. And 1654 is suppressed by a large number of shorts, and the rebound of gold in the future may be limited. At the same time, this is the dividing line between long and short positions, and it is necessary to stand at 1654 again to see the recovery of bullish sentiment. There are bulls entering the market to bet on a rebound, and the secondary resistance is at 1664 and 1679.

On the other hand, bears are targeting 1624 and 1614. The support is at 1604, but there is a large stock of bears and there are still many put options entering the market, which is the next target of the bears. At present, the bullish support in the range where gold is located is weak, and the continued entry of the bears may accelerate the price of gold to break down. We still need to be alert to downside risks during the day.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 26. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Changes in CME Group's options layout (Futures prices in December):

19.2-19.25 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance zone

19 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease sharply, resistance weakened

18.75 Bullish decrease, bearish increase sharply, resistance level

18.5 Bullish increase, bearish increase, bulls and bears fight for points

18.25 Bullish unchanged, bears increase sharply, bears target

18 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply but the stock is large, bearish target

Order flow key point labeling (spot price):

19.7 Strong resistance

19.45 Bounce target

19.2 Support turns into resistance, and stabilization is expected to ease short-term downward pressure

18.8-18.85 The key resistance during the day

18.5 Secondary Support

18.3 Key Support - Long Cost Area

18 The first goal after breaking the position

Technical Analysis

Silver fell below the previous starting point of 18.8 in the Asian session, and if it is under pressure under the middle rail of the daily Bollinger Band, it will further weaken the bullish sentiment. From the perspective of options changes, the bulls are not active, mainly to lighten their positions, while the bears are betting on the bottom, and some of the bears near 19 above have left the market.

Above 18.75, the short position increases resistance to silver. There is a lot of stock in the long and short range of 19.2-19.25, but the short position is dominant, which still forms a certain pressure on the trend of silver. On the other hand, the 18.5 support below is fighting for long and short positions, but the signs of increasing put options are more obvious. As silver is further under pressure, the bearish sentiment may strengthen. If it breaks, the short target of 18.25 will be seen.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 26. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes:

81.5 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, strong resistance

80 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease sharply, rebound target and resistance

79 Bullish increase, bearish increase, rebound target

78 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, first support

75 Bullish slightly increased, bearish increased and larger stock, short target

73 Bullish slightly increased, bearish decreased sharply, support level

The key points of the order flow are marked:

83 Strong resistance to the trend

81.5-82 key support turned resistance

80.4-81 The starting point of heavy volume decline in the US market, an important resistance level

80 Short-term resistance

78 First support

76.5-77 Secondary support

75-75.5 Option bet below short target

Technical Analysis

Affected by demand concerns and a stronger dollar, oil prices fell sharply on Friday, falling below the previous bearish target of 80, and now hovering above 78.

In terms of option distribution, the bulls have continuously increased their bets above 78 with the same direction, while the short positions are more scattered. Among them, 78 will be the first support for oil prices because it is the starting point for the continuous entry of longs. If it falls below, it may look to the short target of 75, where the short funds have dense chips, and then the support will be seen at 73.0.

In the upward direction, 79 will be the rebound target. If it rises above, the oil price is expected to see the next rebound target and resistance 80, of which the bears have left a large number of positions again, and the resistance has weakened; However, near 81.5, the bears have begun to add a large number of bets, and it is expected that there will be strong resistance.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 26. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

0.9875 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, rebound target

0.98 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, strong resistance

0.9750 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, resistance level

0.97 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease but the stock is larger, resistance level

0.9650 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, resistance level

0.9550 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, short target level

0.95 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, support level

Technical Analysis

On Friday, amid the generally poor performance of PMI data from various countries in the Eurozone, fears of a recession reignited, and the market experienced panic selling. EURUSD fell rapidly after falling below 0.98.

The Asian session opened this morning. Under the poor liquidity, the euro against the US dollar was hit again and tested the bearish target of 0.9550. From the perspective of options changes, the willingness of shorts around 0.95 has been differentiated, and this is a key level for nearly 20 years, which may be expected to ease the decline. Pay attention to the repeated testing of shorts in this area.

On the other hand, the option bets show that in order to achieve rebound momentum, the EURUSD must first stand at the 0.9650 level, and then look at the 0.9750 resistance level after stabilization; however, only a breakthrough of 0.98 is expected to ease the downward momentum and end this round of decline.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 26. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

1.12-1.1220 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, resistance area

1.1150-1.1170 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance area

1.11 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase, resistance level

1.10 Bullish increase, bearish increase, rebound target, resistance level

1.0850-1.09 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, strong resistance

1.05-1.0550 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase sharply, bearish target area

Technical Analysis

The British government's new mini-budget plan has caused an uproar, not only did not boost market confidence, but instead increased investors' concerns about its financial situation, and indirectly promised unlimited debt to increase further downward pressure on the pound. The GBPUSD fell sharply below 1.09. It opened in Asian trading this morning and suffered another heavy setback, dropping to 1.04.

Judging from the trend of more than 30 years, if the GBPUSD breaks below 1.0520, it will enter a historical vacuum, and the bearish bet below has tentatively focused on the 1.01-1.03 area. Considering the nature of speculative funds, there may be entanglements near historical lows, and in the “battle” in this area, special attention should be paid to the profit-loss ratio.

On the other hand, if the GBPUSD wants to rebound, there will be many resistances, and the first concern is whether 1.0850 can be broken through.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 26. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

0.66 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target and resistance

0.655 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but the stock is large, the resistance has weakened

0.65 Bullish increase, bearish increase slightly, rebound target and resistance

0.645 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease sharply, support level

0.64 bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply and the stock is large, short target

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD fell sharply on Friday as the dollar strengthened to new highs and commodities were weighed down. Today, the AUDUSD extended last week's decline and has now fallen below 0.65. In terms of options, there is no new action for the bulls below the current price, and the new bets are basically concentrated on the top; the bears enter the market continuously below 0.64. Overall, the funds have no clear direction. Therefore, in the upward direction, the rebound target will be at 0.65; if it breaks through, it may look at the upper resistance of 0.655; the short bets are intensive at this position, but the resistance has weakened, and then the long target resistance is at 0.66. On the downside, there are a lot of short funds leaving the market at 0.645, which will support the fall; if it falls below, it may look at the short target of 0.64.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 26. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.