​Mohicans markets：12.14-MHM European Viewpoint

Market Overview

On Wednesday (December 14, Beijing time), during the Asian European session, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range. At present, it is trading near 1810 US dollars/ounce. After the overnight US November CPI data was weaker than the market expectation and the previous value. The market generally strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase. The soaring gold price recovered the 200 day moving average and 1800 level and broke the resistance around the August high of 1807. The short-term bullish signals increased.

This trading day will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will only increase interest rates by 50 basis points, but the market expects that the Federal Reserve may only increase interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year, and the expectation before the CPI data in November is 50 basis points. This expectation bias provides further opportunities for gold prices to rise.

It should be reminded that investors also need to pay special attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. When the Federal Reserve's resolution was released last month, the gold price once rose from around 1649 to around 1669.

However, after Powell said that the terminal interest rate would be higher than expected, the gold price rose and fell by more than $30 to around $1635, and fell to around 1616 on the following trading day.

Mohicans Markets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on December 14, 2022 Beijing time.

Technical Analysis

Due to the abnormal option data of CME's crude oil and European pound today, only gold, silver and AUD is updated today, and only the order flow point of crude oil is temporarily available!

Change of CME Group's option layout (futures price in February):

1890 Bullish increased significantly, bearish increased slightly, long target

1875 Bullish increased significantly, bearish unchanged, long target

1850 Bullish sharply reduced, bearish slightly increased, resistance level

1820 Bullish and bearish increased significantly, and long and short positions competed for positions

1800 Bullish slightly increased, bearish significantly increased, short target

1785-1790 Bullish declined, bearish increased significantly, and the downward momentum expanded

Order flow key point marking (spot price):

1845 Secondary target of bulls is also resistance

1833 The first target of bulls

1825 Important resistance level of the day

1814 US session upper resistance

1806-1807 Resistance to support

1790 The starting point of CPl data, important

1781 Key support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 14. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

CME Group options layout changes ( March Futures Price)：

25 Bullish decreased, bearish increased slightly, resistance level

24.5 Bullish decreased slightly but the stock was large, bearish unchanged, previous long target

24 Bullish decreased, bearish unchanged, short-term resistance

23.75 Bullish increased, bearish increased, long and short compete for points

23.5 Bullish decreased, bearish increased, short target

23.25 Bullish increased slightly, bearish increased sharply, short target

Order flow key point marking ( Spot Price)：

24.85-25 Long target

24.45-24.57 Secondary resistance

24-24.17 March double top neckline level, strong resistance area

23.65 First support

23.4 Post CPI data starting point, important

23-23.1 Important near-term support

22.57 Hourly double bottom neckline support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 14. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Order flow key point marking (January Futures Price)：

79-80 Rebound target area for bullish option bets, also resistance

78 Important resistance

76.4-76.7 First retracement of last week's downtrend, important resistance

75-75.4 U.S. backpedaling twice before releasing volume down, key level (being tested)

74.5 Short-term support

72.8-73.3 Key support during the day

71-71.3 Monday's U.S. retracement of the starting point, important support

70 Target of bearish option bets, tested twice, important support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 14. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. 

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general consultation only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranty or representation on this material. The examples in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any information provided or omitted in this material in any way (including negligence). The characteristics of MHMarkets' products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statement provided on MHMarkets' website. Derivatives may be risky; The loss may exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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