MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆At 20:30, the United States will release the monthly retail sales rate for March, which is known as “terrorist data”. Currently, it is expected to record -0.4%, consistent with last month.

☆At 16:00, the IEA released its monthly crude oil market report. Previously, the OPEC monthly report stated that there was a downward risk in summer oil demand, and a reduction in oil production would lead to an expansion of the supply gap. Pay attention to IEA's views on the oil market.

☆At 20:45, Federal Reserve Governor Warren delivered a speech on the economic outlook. Previously, Waller stated that inflation could rapidly decline without causing relatively little pain to the job market.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Thursday, as more weak US economic data supported the market's bet that the Federal Reserve was about to suspend interest rate hikes, spot gold surged above the $2040 level, breaking a new high in over a year, about $30 from its historical high set in 2020, and finally closed up 1.25% at $2040.13/ounce; Spot silver briefly approached the $26 level and ended up 1.29% higher at $25.83 per ounce.

Due to the cooling of the PPI, the US dollar index continued to decline during the day, falling below the 101 level, reaching a new low since February 2, and finally closing down 0.51% at 101.01; The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond was the first to fall and then rise, still standing above 3.4% and closing at 3.449%.

In terms of crude oil, or OPEC's report has sparked concerns about demand, with the two oil companies experiencing a slight decline. WTI crude oil expanded its decline during the US session and fell more than 1%. In the end, it recovered some of its losses and ultimately closed down 1% at $82.39 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed 1.02% lower at $86.27 per barrel.

The US stock market index closed up 1.14%, while the S&P 500 index closed up 1.33%, both reaching their highest closing levels since February; The Nasdaq closed up 1.99%, the largest increase of the month. Apple and Walt Disney closed up 3%.

European stocks rose overall, with the DAX30 index in Germany rising 0.16%, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rising 0.24%, the CAC40 index in France rising 1.13%, and the Stoxx 50 index in Europe rising 0.67%.          

Market Focus

1. The U.S. monthly PPI rate for March recorded a lower-than-expected -0.5%, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed's interest rate hike has peaked. Gold is pushing $2,050, the Nasdaq is up nearly 2%, and Ether is on the 2,000 mark.

2. The U.S. Republican Party intends to extend the debt ceiling suspension measure for one year to open negotiations with Biden on spending issues.

3. A 21-year-old cyber expert in the Air National Guard intelligence unit suspected of leaking U.S. military intelligence documents was arrested.

4. The U.K. economy unexpectedly stalled in February as public services were crippled by strikes in February.

5. OPEC monthly report: maintain the forecast of global crude oil demand growth at 2.32 million barrels per day this year, and oil production cuts will lead to a widening supply gap.

6. ECB officials gradually reached a consensus on a 25BP rate hike in May, five people familiar with the matter said, while two officials said they would not rule out a 50BP hike.

7. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer drafted the framework: the proposed will prevent AI from causing potentially catastrophic damage to the country while ensuring that the U.S. is in the lead.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov informed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian army personnel and military equipment in Kupyansk, Red Liman and other directions.

2. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that Russian forces continued to concentrate their main forces on offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut, Avdeyevka and other directions, and that the Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian attacks.

Assistance Situation：

1. The sources: Germany has approved Poland's request to export old German MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.

2. Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ukraine: We have received $42 billion of international support.

3. The EU Council agreed to provide 1 billion euros in aid to the Ukrainian army.

Other Situation：

1. UN Secretary-General's spokesman: the UN is pushing for the return of Russian banks to the SWIFT system.

2. Ukrainian State Oil and Gas Company says it won the $5 billion arbitration case with Russia.

3. Ukrainian State Nuclear Energy Corporation: A Russian mine exploded near the reactor generator room at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

4. The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has declared 15 Russian Embassy officials persona non grata. Russia: will respond.

5. Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ukraine: Ukraine will probably raise its economic growth forecast in April. Deflation is expected to continue.

6. The EU placed Russian private defense contractor Wagner Group and affiliated media on its sanctions list.

7. Russian Foreign Ministry: The UN-brokered Black Sea food deal will not be extended beyond May 18 unless the West removes a series of obstacles to Russian food and fertilizer exports.

8. Ukrainian Defense Minister: Ukraine has no other choice but to join NATO.

9. Germany's imports from Russia fell by more than 90%, mainly due to the “precipitous” fall of Russian energy supplies to Europe's largest economy.

10. Ukraine's foreign minister: all Ukrainian cities, including Crimea, must and will become part of Ukraine again. Real peace means restoring Ukraine's borders. It's time to turn the Black Sea into NATO's sea.

11. The Russian Defense Ministry's State Defense Management Center informed on the 13th that a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet flew with a Norwegian Air Force patrol plane over the Barents Sea on the same day.

Institutional Perspective 

01

Goldman Sachs

The Fed is no longer expected to raise rates in June, with the latter expected to raise rates by 25BP in May.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

【Societe Generale: USDCAD May Have Peaked Like US Rates】

On April 12, no one expects the Bank of Canada's policy rate to change tonight, Societe Generale said. However, futures traders have built the largest short position in the Canadian dollar since January 2019. The USDCAD tracks relative U.S. and Canadian interest rates, but by far the biggest driver of the spread is the trend in U.S. rates. We believe the USDCAD has peaked and will move lower toward 1.25 in the coming months, even though sticky core CPI data and a tepid CBC policy statement may not give the pair much of a boost.

03

MUFG

Mitsubishi UFJ subsidiary to establish a $375 million startup investment fund.