MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆ At 7:00 GMT, the three-member Federal Reserve Williams to speak; Fed Governor Waller will speak at 20:45 and the following day at 0:20; the following day at 00:20, Cleveland Fed President Meister speaks; the following day at 03:00, Fed Governor Bowman attends the “Federal Reserve Listen” event; the following day at 05:00, the Atlanta Fed President Bostic on the economic situation speech. Fed officials take turns to appear, investors need to pay close attention to their views on the Fed's next policy initiatives.

☆ At 9:15, China's one-year loan market quoted rate to April 20, expected to be in line with the previous value of 3.65%.

☆At 19:30, the ECB releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and ECB officials are expected to still emphasize the importance of anti-inflation. For the May rate hike resolution, previous news said that policymakers basically agreed on a 25 basis point rate hike, but there are still variables, the main influencing factors are the Eurozone inflation data in April and the ECB's quarterly bank lending survey.

☆At 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week to April 15 and the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for April are released; At 22:00, U.S. March total home sales annualized and the U.S. monthly rate of leading indicators of the Conference Board for March are released. The influence of secondary economic data on the market has also been strengthening recently, and investors should pay sufficient attention to it.

☆ The following day at 02:30, New York crude oil May futures completes the last trading on the floor.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend 

On Wednesday, spot gold V-shaped reversal, the deepest intra-day touch of $1969.26 per ounce, down more than $50 from the daily high; then it quickly pulled up to recover some of the losses, but stopped below the 2000 mark, and finally closed down 0.51% at $1994.76 per ounce. Spot silver once fell more than 2%, bottoming out more strongly than gold, and finally reversed the decline, closing up 0.32% at $25.29 per ounce.

The U.S. dollar index rallied and failed to stabilize at the 102 mark, finally closing up 0.216% at 101.96; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points intraday to 3.63%, which was the highest since March 22, and finally closed at 3.591%.

International crude oil broke down to about a two-week low. WTI crude oil once fell below $79 per barrel for the first time since April 3, eventually closing down 2.39% at $79.09 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 2.34% at $83.01 per barrel.

The U.S. Dow closed down 0.23%, the S&P 500 was close to a flat close, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.03%. Popular Chinese stocks, star technology stocks were weak, Xiaopeng Auto closed down about 13%, Nifty closed down about 3% after the results.

European stocks were mixed, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.08%, the FTSE 100 index closed down 0.13%, France's CAC40 index closed up 0.21%, the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.01%.

Market Focus

1. The proposal by US Republican and House Speaker McCarthy to raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion or suspend it until the end of March next year also includes a series of spending cuts that the White House finds difficult to accept.

2. Moderates from both parties in the United States are concerned that federal debt will be dragged into default in negotiations (as early as June) and have proposed a backup plan: suspending the debt ceiling until the end of the year.

3. The Dutch electricity price fell to a negative value at one point amid a large supply of clean electricity.

4. Musk threatened to sue Microsoft, claiming that it “illegally used Twitter data for (AI) training”.

5. Tesla's Q1 operating profit margin has decreased from 16% in Q4 to 11.4%, and no vehicle gross profit margin data has been provided.

6. Federal Reserve Brown Book: Economic activity remains almost unchanged, consumer demand for loans decreases, and banks tighten credit standards.

7. Sudan to hold another 24-hour ceasefire; The Japanese side is preparing to evacuate 60 citizens.

8. The union representing approximately 155000 workers in the Canadian public sector has called for a strike to begin on Wednesday due to salary issues.

9. The UK CPI data exceeded expectations, with traders raising their bets on the peak Bank of England interest rates by 14 basis points to 5%.

10. The US debt crisis alert only added $108 billion without excluding the “tax filing date”, and the cash balance rose to $252.5 billion. Analysis indicates that this may just be enough for government spending.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict situation:

1. According to TASS: According to the “Donetsk People's Republic”, the Ukrainian army blew up four residential buildings when retreating in Bakmut, killing at least 20 civilians.

2. Hanna Maryar , Deputy Minister of National Defense of Ukraine, stated that the Ukrainian armed forces will not publicly announce a counterattack and that certain actions are already underway.

3. General Staff Department of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: In the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Air Force has carried out seven attacks on the occupiers, with Ukrainian rocket and artillery units attacking two groups of Russian manpower and military equipment, as well as two ammunition storage points used by the Russian army.

4. Russian Ministry of Defense: In the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian army has lost nearly 380 people in the direction of Donetsk. The equipment loss of the Ukrainian side includes 1 tank, 2 infantry combat vehicles, 5 armored combat vehicles, 8 vehicles, 1 locust self-propelled howitzer, 1 D-20 howitzer, and 1 hail rocket artillery.

Assistance situation: 

1. According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korean President Yoon Seok hyeon has stated that if necessary, South Korea can consider providing military assistance to Ukraine.

2. Multiple Western air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine, including the Patriot air defense missiles provided by the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands.

3. The United States provided military aid worth 325 million US dollars to Ukraine, including a large amount of artillery and ammunition to assist in launching the spring offensive.

Food situation: 

1. The Hungarian government will ban the import of 25 Ukrainian agricultural products.

2. Prime Minister of Bulgaria: Bulgaria temporarily prohibits the import of food from Ukraine, except for transit goods.

3. The Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture confirmed that food transportation through Poland will be open from Thursday to Friday night.

4. According to Pravda of Ukraine: Ukraine and Turkey agreed to resume the registration and inspection of ships carrying Ukrainian food.

5. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there are difficulties in registering and inspecting ships transporting grains from Ukraine.

6. Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture: Negotiations on the Black Sea Food Corridor are ongoing and some time is needed. It is impossible to predict how many ships Russia will allow to pass through the Black Sea Food Corridor.

7. The EU is preparing to provide a 100 million euro aid plan for the food market and will begin investigating other sensitive products related to the agricultural market situation.

Institutional Perspective 

01 

Goldman Sachs

It is reported that more people have left the Asian equity team of Goldman Sachs (GS. N).

02 

SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale: The US dollar may have peaked against the Canadian dollar, similar to the US interest rate 

On April 12th, Societe Generale stated that no one expected the policy interest rates of the Bank of Canada to change tonight. However, futures traders have established their largest Canadian dollar short position since January 2019. The USD/CAD tracks the relative interest rates between the US and Canada, but so far, the biggest driving force behind this price difference is the trend in US interest rates. We believe that the US dollar has peaked against the Canadian dollar and will decline to 1.25 in the coming months, even though the sticky core CPI data and lackluster policy statements from the Canadian central bank may not have a significant driving effect on the currency pair.

03

MUFG 

The data released on Wednesday showed that the UK's inflation rate in March was higher than expected, “said Derek Halpenny, chief strategist at MUFJ.” This fact, coupled with stronger than expected wage growth data, provides a convincing reason for the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on May 11th.