MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆7:30 JPY Core Inflation Rate YoY (MAR)

It is expected to register 3.1%, in line with the previous value.

☆7:45 USD Fed Harker Speech

Harker previously said he favored raising interest rates to more than 5% and that rate hikes could end soon.

☆14:00 GBP Retail Sales MoM (MAR)

The expected value was -0.5%, down from the previous value of 1.2%. This follows two consecutive months of higher-than-expected year-over-year retail sales growth in the U.K., which has rebounded to pre-New Crown epidemic levels. If the data exceeds expectations again, it may further consolidate the market's expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England.

☆ European major economies released the preliminary value of April manufacturing PMI. 

15:15 EUR France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (APR)

15:30 EUR Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (APR)

16:00 EUR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (APR) 

16:30 GBP S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (APR)

☆21:45 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (APR) and S&P Global Services PMI Flash (APR)

☆ The following day at 04:35 USD Fed Cook Speech

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook previously did not comment on monetary policy or the economic outlook in her latest public address.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Thursday, spot gold oscillated higher, once above the $2010 mark, then fell, but stabilized above the round number mark, finally closing up 0.58% at $2004.81 per ounce. Spot silver oscillated in the range and finally closed up 0.1% at $25.28 per ounce.

The U.S. dollar index failed to move up to the 102 mark, hitting an intraday low of 101.64 and finally closed down 0.157% at 101.8; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued to weaken, finally closing at 3.536%. But the three-month U.S. Treasury yield once rose to 5.318%, which was a new 22-year high, reflecting market concerns about triggering the debt ceiling.

International crude oil extended losses as recession fears clouded the outlook for energy demand. WTI crude closed down 2.25% at $77.16 per barrel, a near three-week low, while Brent crude closed down 2.51% at $80.91 per barrel.

U.S. stocks retreated in late trading, the Dow closed down 0.33%, the Nasdaq closed down 0.8%, the S&P 500 index closed down 0.59%. Tesla closed down about 10% after the results, dragging down the new energy vehicle stocks, ideal car, Azera closed down about 6%, Xiaopeng car closed down more than 5%.

European stocks generally closed lower, with Germany's DAX30 closing down 0.62%, the FTSE 100 closing up 0.05%, France's CAC 40 closing down 0.14% and the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 0.2%.          

Market Focus

1. American media: Biden is preparing to release a video of his official campaign for re-election next week.

2. 1.6 tons of gold were stolen from Canadian airports, and the police suspect organized crime.

3. Federal Reserve Mester: Closer to the end of tightening than before, but still needs to be cautious and support another rate hike.

4. The US money market funds experienced their first recent net outflow this week, marking the largest weekly outflow since 2020, while the size of emergency loans provided by the Federal Reserve increased for the first time in five weeks.

5. The yield of three-month US treasury bond bonds hit a 22 year high, reflecting the market's concern about triggering the debt ceiling.

6. On its first day of listing, the Chinese concept stock, Youpin Auto, rose 619%, with a market value of $2.2 billion, making it the best performing stock on its first day of listing this year.  

7. It is reported that the United States and its allies are considering a comprehensive ban on exports to Russia.

8. The European Parliament approves the first EU wide cryptocurrency regulation.  

9. European Central Bank Governor Nault: The European Central Bank may have to raise interest rates again in June and July.

10. Iran has observed American submarines in the Strait of Hormuz and claims to have forced them to surface and change their course.  

11. WHO: The armed conflict in Sudan has resulted in at least 330 deaths and nearly 3200 injuries. US media reports that the US military is preparing for the evacuation of the US Embassy in Sudan.  

12. SpaceX's starship successfully took off after several engines failed to ignite. A few minutes later, its attitude lost control and SpaceX actively detonated the starship. Musk said he will test again in a few months.  

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict situation:

1. On the 21st local time, air defense alerts were sounded throughout Ukraine.

2. An explosion occurred in the Belgorod area near the Ukrainian border, and the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that it was caused by an abnormal fall of Russian military aircraft ammunition. The explosion injured two people and damaged four apartments and four cars.

3. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg paid his first visit to Kiev since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to express support for Ukraine's preparations for launching a counter offensive.

4. General Staff Department of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: In the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have repelled dozens of Russian attacks in five directions, including Zinchman, Bakhmut, and Avjeyevka. The Ukrainian air force, missile forces, and artillery units have carried out multiple strikes against the Russian military personnel and equipment concentration areas.

5. Russian Ministry of Defense: The Russian military continued to strike Ukrainian personnel and positions in Donetsk, Kupyansk, Zinchman, Zaporoge, Kherson and other directions, repeatedly repelling Ukrainian assault troops and destroying multiple targets such as ammunition depots and command posts, and shooting down several Ukrainian drones.

Food situation:

1. The Ukrainian railway company temporarily prohibits the transportation of food to Slovakia, including grains, beans, oil crops, vegetables, fruits, sugar, pure alcohol, and honey. The ban came into effect on April 19th and will be implemented indefinitely.

2. A regulatory draft suggests that Russian grain suppliers may be able to waive some export quotas in order to redistribute them to other companies. The Russian government is seeking to maximize exports and avoid domestic oversupply.

3. Prime Minister Orban chief of staff of Prime Minister of Hungary: Hungary has temporarily banned the import of 25 products from Ukraine, and the ban will last until June 30.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

According to Nikkei News, Goldman Sachs (GS. N) is seeking Japanese investment for a $1.6 billion green fund.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale: The April tax reduction in the United States will bring the debt deadline forward.

On April 21st, strategists such as Subadra Rajappa from Societe Generale in France stated in a report that if the US Treasury's tax revenue for the rest of April is around 50% of the 2022 level, then the US Treasury is more likely to exhaust its borrowing capacity at some point in June. Societe Generale still expects the US Treasury Department to exhaust its borrowing capacity between late July and early August, but if tax revenue falls far below current expectations, this forecast will face uncertainty. Societe Generale stated that this prediction is based on assumptions about the remaining tax revenue in April and the available borrowing scale under extraordinary measures.

03

MUFG

The data released on Wednesday showed that the UK's inflation rate in March was higher than expected, “said Derek Halpenny, chief strategist at MUFJ.” This fact, coupled with stronger than expected wage growth data, provides a convincing reason for the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on May 11.