MHMarkets：The US dollar continues to strengthen, non US currencies and precious metals collectively retreat, and US crude oil once again breaks the upper limit!

MH Markets | 2023-09-01 17:31

Abstract：On Friday (September 1), spot gold has suddenly seen a rapid decline in a short term during the Asian market and the gold price has just fallen below the $1940 per ounce mark. The U.S. August non-farm payrolls report is scheduled to come out at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday. Authoritative media surveys show that the U.S. August non-farm payrolls is expected to increased by 170,000, following an expected increase of 187,000 in July.

Market Overview

On Friday (September 1), spot gold has suddenly seen a rapid decline in a short term during the Asian market and the gold price has just fallen below the $1940 per ounce mark. The U.S. August non-farm payrolls report is scheduled to come out at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday. Authoritative media surveys show that the U.S. August non-farm payrolls is expected to increased by 170,000, following an expected increase of 187,000 in July.

The survey also showed that the U.S. August unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.5%. U.S. August monthly rate of Average Hourly Earnings is expected to increase 0.3%, following an increase of 0.4% in July; U.S. August annual rate of Average Hourly Earnings is expected to rise 4.4%, following an increase of 4.4% in July;

International oil prices rose strongly again yesterday, approaching their recent high since August 10th, which was mainly influenced by yesterday's news of Russia's continued production reduction strategy.

Given the declining crude inventories, the consensus on the average price may seem rather conservative. After all, the global oil market remains tight, with Standard Chartered estimating that global inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels per day in August, and a further reduction of 2.4 million barrels per day is expected next month. Experts predict that inventory tightening will remain the main price driver over the coming months, but they warn that the market could still slip back into the kind of macro-driven anxiety seen in the second quarter.

At 20:30 Beijing time on September 1 (Friday), the U.S. will release August non-farm payrolls data. U.S. August non-farm payrolls is expected to increase by 170,000, slowing from 187,000 in July. The U.S. August unemployment rate is remain stable at 3.5%. The non-farm payrolls data and average hourly earnings data may influence the Fed's future policy.

Traders reduced the likelihood that the Fed will finally raise interest rates this year after U.S. job openings fell to their lowest level since early 2021. The jolting U.S. job openings data revived bets that the Fed would pause on rate hikes and triggered a sustained pullback in the U.S. dollar from a 12-week high hit on Friday.

Fed Chairman Powell's speech on the 25th in Jackson Hole seminar is considered “hawkish”. Powell's comments implied that there will be another interest rate hike this year, reinforcing the statement that “interest rates will take longer to raise”. As a result of his comments, the dollar index rallied sharply.

After Powell's speech, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in November soared to about 57%. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool's data, in the face of disappointing U.S. employment data, this possibility has fallen to 40%.

MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on September 1, Beijing time.

·Gold XAUUSD·
High Probability Scenario					High throw and low suction in the 1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977 range
Low Probability Scenario					Chase up and kill down outside the 1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977 range
Intraday Oscillation Range: 1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977 Overall Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1873-1892-1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977-1985-1998-2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066-2077-2089-2097-2100 In the subsequent period of spot gold, 1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977 can be operated as the bull and bear range; High throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 1. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
·Silver XAGUSD·
High Probability Scenario	High throw and low suction in the 23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 range
Low Probability Scenario	Chase up and kill down outside the 23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 range
Intraday Oscillation Range: 23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 Overall Oscillation Range: 19.7-20.1-20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6-27.3 In the subsequent period of spot silver, 23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 1. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
·Crude Oil USOUSD·
High Probability Scenario				High throw and low suction in the 79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1 range
Low Probability Scenario				Chase up and kill down outside the 79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1 range
Intraday Oscillation Range: 79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1 Overall Oscillation Range: 62.1-63.7-64.5-65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1-90.7 In the subsequent period of crude oil, 79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 1. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
·EURUSD·
High Probability Scenario			High throw and low suction in the 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 range
Low Probability Scenario			Chase up and kill down outside the 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 range
Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 Overall Oscillation Range: 1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303-1.13340 In the subsequent period of EURUSD, 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 1. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
·GBPUSD·
High Probability Scenario		High throw and low suction in the 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300 range
Low Probability Scenario		Chase up and kill down outside the 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300 range
Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300 Overall Oscillation Range: 1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300-1.30000-1.30600-1.31000-1.31660-132000 In the subsequent period of GBPUSD, 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 1. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.