MHMarkets：September 20, 2023--Fundamental Reminder

☆Today, domestic refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.

☆22:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (SEP/15)

Markets are now expecting a decrease of 2.667 million barrels.

☆ The next day at 2:00, Fed to release summary of interest rate decision and economic expectations, with markets expecting Continued 'hawkish pause'

☆The next day at 2:30, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy, so investors should pay attention to what he says.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

The dollar index followed a V-shaped pattern on Tuesday, falling to an intraday low of 104.81 before strongly recovering all its losses to end up 0.06% at 105.13. In U.S. Treasury yields, the two-year yield rose sharply to close at 5.092%; The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed at 4.365%; The yield on the five-year Treasury rose as high as 4.504%, its highest since 2007.

Spot gold traded in a narrow range above the $1,930 mark, rising as high as $1,937.43 before giving up all its gains and turning negative to end down 0.13% at $1,931.31 an ounce. Spot silver settled down 0.22% at $23.20 an ounce.

Crude oil retreated as investors took profits. WTI crude fell more than 1% on the day, falling to an intraday low of $90.28, before ending down 1.66% at $90.67 a barrel. Brent crude rose above $95 for the first time since November and reached a session high of $95.91 before giving up all its gains and turning negative to end down 0.19% at $94.35 a barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes followed a V-shaped pattern throughout the day, but still ended slightly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.31%, the Nasdaq down 0.23% and the S&P 500 down 0.22%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell more than 2%, with NIO leading the losers with a drop of more than 17%, Xpeng and Li Auto closing down 5% and 3% respectively, and secondary IPO Arm closing down nearly 5%.

European shares were mixed, with Germany's DAX30 closing down 0.4%, the U.K. 's FTSE 100 up 0.09% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.07%.

Market Focus

1. Us Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that she would not stop Japan from intervening in currency markets.

2. Russia is reportedly considering an export tariff of $250 / ton on petroleum products.

3. Armenia says Azerbaijani troops fired on it in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Armenia says it stopped building fortifications.

4. The U.S. Capitol Police briefly blocked off the streets around its Capitol Hill headquarters in response to a suspicious vehicle.

5. The U.S. government shutdown crisis remains in the air after Republican hard-liners in the House of Representatives blocked debate on key legislation.

6. Oecd: Raised its 2023 global economic growth forecast to 3.0% and lowered its 2024 forecast to 2.7%.

7. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since 2007; Cloth oil futures rose above $95 a barrel for the first time since November; The index fell 2% overnight.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation

1. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin: Ukraine's counteroffensive continues to make progress.

2. Russian Defense Ministry: shot down Ukrainian attack drones over Orel Oblast and Belgorod Oblast.

3. Ukrainian Air Force: Air defense systems destroyed 27 of the 30 drones launched by Russia.

Food Situation

1. Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine: 1.58 million hectares of winter crops have been sown in Ukraine.

2. Ukraine submitted a proposal to the EU on a mechanism for controlling grain exports.

3. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin: 280,000 tons of grain destroyed as a result of Russian military action.

4. Ukraine has filed a complaint with the WTO. Poland will not lift its ban on Ukrainian agricultural products.

5. Ukrainian grain ships leave Odessa despite Russian blockade. Sources: A cargo ship leaves after loading grain in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Chornomorsk.

6. Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture: Ukraine will approve exports of four crops to EU neighbors; A licensing system is implemented for some agricultural products exported to certain EU countries.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs：Further rises in oil prices could hit risk appetite】

September19 -- A further rise in oil prices could weigh on risk appetite if it puts upward pressure on bond yields, Goldman Sachs said. Strategists such as Christian Mueller-Glissmann believe a sustained rise in oil prices could add to inflationary pressures towards the end of the year, which could lead to a deterioration in the global growth/inflation mix. Global growth optimism is already high and is unlikely to heat up further. The options market now sees a 45% chance that Brent crude will stay above $90 a barrel by January 2024. The strategist expects Opec + to be unlikely to pursue oil prices above $100 / BBL, but noted short-term bullish risks to the forecast from recent developments.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

Co-head of corporate and investment banking atSociete Generale: 'We expect the trading environment to return to normal in the near future.'

03

MUFG

【MUFG: Dollar falls on market bets Fed will focus on falling core inflation】

September 14 -- U.S. inflation data released Wednesday showed a slightly higher-than-expected year-on-year rise in headline CPI to 3.7%, but the impact on the dollar was limited and the greenback is now slightly lower, said Lee Hardman, a foreign exchange analyst at MUFG. He said the market expects the Fed to focus on the trend of slowing core inflation. While the monthly gain was slightly higher, the annual rate of August core inflation fell to 4.3% from 4.7%. Market participants believe that the Fed will pay more attention to the slowing trend in core inflation when setting policy and continue to be vigilant about the upside risks to inflation from rising energy prices.