MHMarkets：October 17, 2023--Fundamental Reminder

08:30 RBA releases minutes of its October monetary policy meeting.

20:00 Fed President John Williams speaks.

20:30 CAD Inflation Rate MoM (SEP) & USD Retail Sales MoM (SEP)

22:45 Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook.

The next day at 05:00 Fed President Kashkari participates in a discussion.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

This year, FOMC voting committee, Philadelphia Fed President Harker continued to release doves, reiterated that the Fed should not consider further interest rate hikes, inflation is expected to weaken, the futures market expects the probability of no interest rate hike in November is more than 90%, the probability of interest rate hike in December is only 30%, the dollar index fell, closing down 0.32% at 106.21.

Treasury yields rose on Friday as geopolitical hedgers took profits, with the 10-year yield up as much as 10 basis points to close near 4.7% and the two-year yield up more than 4 basis points to close at 5.1%.

Spot gold fell slightly as risk appetite returned, falling above the $1,910 mark at one point before settling down 0.63% at $1,920.16 an ounce. Spot silver settled down 0.39% at $22.61 an ounce.

Oil also saw profit-taking, with WTI crude down 0.78% at $87 a barrel and Brent down 0.89% at $90.08 a barrel.

Risk appetite returned to U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.93%, the Nasdaq up 1.2% and the S&P 500 up 0.99%. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon index closed up 0.32%, Xpeng Motor fell nearly 5%, Huya, Tal rose 7% line. Vietnamese tram maker VinFast tumbled 18%. Gains were evident in the digital currency sector, with MicroStrategy and Coinbase both up more than 2%.

Major European stock indexes all rose slightly, with Germany's DAX30 closing up 0.33%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.42% and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.34%.

Market Focus

1. Summary of important news on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Iran said that there is not much time left for a political settlement of the conflict, and the expansion of the conflict to other fronts may be inevitable; That the United States has entered the conflict militarily; Israeli army: armored vehicles and ground troops ready to enter Gaza Strip; An air-raid siren sounded during Blinken's visit, and he ducked into a bunker for five minutes. Zhai Jun, China's Middle East envoy, is in the region this week; Us Defense Secretary orders' Be ready to deploy ' Media: A 2,000-strong U.S. Marine Corps rapid reaction force headed to waters off Israel's coast; Israeli PM: Conflict likely to last long, no ceasefire until Hamas is eliminated Both Israel and Hamas have denied reports of a temporary truce.

2. British media: Rolls-Royce to cut 2,500 jobs.

3. House Speaker candidate Jordan is seeking a full House vote on Tuesday.

4. Russia raised its November oil export tariff by 10% to $26.2 a metric ton.

5. The Belgian government has put the Brussels capital region on the highest alert level.

6. Us media: The US will ease oil sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for free elections.

7. Masato Kanda, Vice Minister of Finance: When there is excessive foreign exchange volatility, raising interest rates is an option.

8. Water levels in the Amazon River port of Manaus, the capital of Brazil's Amazonas state, have fallen to their lowest levels in more than 100 years.

9. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Novak: Russia and Venezuela agreed to seek ways to enhance oil cooperation and increase oil production.

10. Cointelegraph issued a statement on the erroneous report “SEC approves Ishares Bitcoin Spot ETF” : The news is based on unverified screenshots. The news sent Bitcoin soaring to $30,000 before blackrock denied the rumor.

11. Philadelphia Fed President Harker reiterated comments made on Friday that the Fed should hold rates steady unless there is a turn in the data.

12. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -4.6 in October, above expectations of -7 and down from 1.9 previously.

13. Us Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: The US is likely to maintain higher interest rates for a long time.

Institutional Perspective

01

Morgan Stanley

【Morgan Stanley：Morgan Stanleybelieves the catalysts for further declines are in place】

Michael Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, said the S&P 500's earnings revision breadth, which refers to the number of upgrades versus downgrades, has fallen sharply in the past few weeks. Citigroup's earnings revision index shows that downgrades have outpaced upgrades for four weeks in a row heading into the reporting season. Jpmorgan strategist Mislav Matejka expects that to continue.

02

UBS

【UBS：Yields on 10-year Treasuries could be in double digits】

UBSsaid on Monday: “Looking ahead, we expect yields to fall as US growth slows and the Fed ends tightening and starts easing later next year. ”We see bonds as an effective hedge for investors' portfolios and the 10-year Treasury could return as much as 19% if the U.S. economy falls into a recession.

03

Charles Schwab

【Charles Schwab：Third-quarter earnings per share beat Wall Street expectations】

Charles Schwab shares rose 4.7% on Monday after third-quarter earnings per share beat Wall Street expectations. Jpmorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and UnitedHealth Group rallied Friday after reporting their latest quarterly results.

Some on Wall Street are bracing for more volatility to end the year thanks to rising yields and oil prices, high inflation and conflict in the Middle East. Some analysts believe a full-blown regional conflict could send oil prices soaring above $100 a barrel, risking a global recession. But the focus on earnings can give investors optimism in the short term, according to Lisa Erickson, senior vice president of wealth management at Bancorp.