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WTI Predicted to Fall as OPEC+ Cuts Production

DCFX | 2023-12-05 12:01

Abstract：The prediction for this week is that Gold is likely to continue its upward trend. This is due to the influence of lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of buying gold with zero yield.

XAUUSD

Technical Analysis

The prediction for this week is that Gold is likely to continue its upward trend. This is due to the influence of lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of buying gold with zero yield. Additionally, Powell stated that 'the potential tightening being too low and too high is becoming more balanced,' but the Fed is not considering lowering interest rates at the moment. This week, there will be the 'Non-Farm Payroll' news, which is predicted to hold interest rates steady, thus the potential for gold movement is likely to continue to rise. Investors still tend to choose gold as a safe haven for now due to the prolonged impact of the declining USD and low confidence in the USD. The trend also supports an upward movement. Some speculate that this increase might lead to an overbought situation, but caution is necessary because this rise seems likely to be sustained ahead of the 'Non-Farm Payroll' release. It's important to be cautious if there is indeed a short-term decline in the future, as the overall direction still supports a significant rise.

Long-Term Potential: Buy

Short-Term Potential: Sell

Resistance: 2078.86

Support: 2007.24

USDJPY

Technical Analysis

The prediction for the USD this week tends to continue its downward trend. This will likely strengthen the Yen, trading down 0.3% to 147.74, heading for a third consecutive weekly gain against the dollar, moving away from the three-decade low of 151.92 reached in mid-November. There will be significant news affecting movements this week, namely the 'Non-Farm Payroll,' which is predicted to decrease against the USD due to the Fed's announcement that interest rate hikes are done for this year. This potential decline in the USD is due to the impact of declining yields. The trend shows a new downward movement, suggesting that the USD's decline is likely to be sustained.

Long-Term Potential: Sell

Short-Term Potential: Buy

Resistance: 148.801

Support: 144.896

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis

Prediction for the Pound Sterling this week indicates a tendency for an upward trend, primarily driven by the weakening of the USD in the long term. The Pound Sterling is likely to rise by 0.3% to 1.2666, aiming towards its highest level in the last three months at 1.2733, following Nationwide data indicating an unexpected monthly rise in UK house prices for the third time in November. The pattern for the Pound Sterling's rise remains broadly continuous, and this week, there isn't significant news affecting the Pound Sterling. However, there's an influence from the USD news, specifically the 'Non-Farm Payroll,' which has the potential to strengthen the Pound Sterling and weaken the USD.

Long-Term Potential: Buy

Short-Term Potential: Sell

Resistance: 1.31336

Support: 1.20396

WTI

Technical Analysis

The prediction for this week indicates that oil is still inclined towards a downward trend, although there hasn't been a significant movement or a clear correction yet. This influence is due to OPEC+ deciding to cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year. This includes 1.3 million barrels of voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. World oil prices have dropped because investors are skeptical that OPEC+ member countries will comply with the production cut agreement and do not believe that the cut is sufficient to reduce supply in the global oil market. However, despite the previous decline, it is predicted that the decrease is still relatively small and remains within a correction, so there's a possibility that prices will tend to rise as predicted in the previous week. The potential for an increase in Oil/WTI seems to be awaiting the announcement from the Fed on Friday (December 8th) discussing the 'Non-Farm Payroll' speech to confirm the next movement for Oil.

Long-Term Potential: Buy

Short-Term Potential: Sell

Resistance: 94.77

Support: 64.34

DOW

Technical Analysis

The analysis predicts a likely strengthening of the Dow Jones this week, following the release of the latest US manufacturing activity data and the Fed Chair's speech. Based on the data, there's a weakening of the USD, which is expected to drive an increase in the Dow Jones Index. Chart analysis indicates that prices have reached a new high after breaking through resistance and still have the potential to rise, given the ongoing impact of USD weakening. This week, the 'Non-Farm Payroll' news is anticipated, which is likely to support the Dow Jones' potential for strength as the Fed is predicted to have signaled a dovish stance ahead of this news release. The overall trend remains strongly bullish, indicating an upward movement with no significant signs of decline.

Long-Term Potential: Buy

Short-Term Potential: Sell

Resistance: 35887

Support: 32624

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