U.S. Stock Markets Rebound on Profit Optimism

• Earning reports optimism fuel U.S. Equity market indexes to trade higher.

• Commodities prices, including gold and oil, lacklustre as the Middle-East tensions ease. 

• BTC prices edge higher in the post-halving period. 

Market Summary

As we delve deeper into the earnings season, the spotlight shifts to the U.S. equity market, particularly with the impending release of earnings reports from tech giants such as Tesla, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet. Anticipation for a potential rally in the AI sector has fueled optimism among investors, propelling the market sentiment positively. Meanwhile, in the forex market, the dollar index remained steady in the previous session, as market participants await the release of crucial U.S. economic indicators, notably the GDP and PCE data scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively.

On another front, the Australian dollar has demonstrated strength ahead of the release of the country's CPI data tomorrow. A reading surpassing expectations is likely to further bolster the Aussie dollar. Additionally, Bitcoin prices have continued their ascent in the post-halving period. The Spot BTC ETF has witnessed net inflows following the halving event last Friday, contributing to the ongoing bullish momentum for BTC.

Current rate hike bets on 1st May Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (97%) VS -25 bps (3%)  

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The dollar index remains firmly above the $106 mark, with market participants closely watching developments in Middle East geopolitical tensions and awaiting key U.S. economic data set to be released later this week. Additionally, U.S. long-term treasury yields have sustained levels above 4.60%, which continues to support the strength of the dollar index.

The dollar index has been trading flat since the beginning of the week, giving a neutral signal for the index. The RSI is hovering above the 50 level while the MACD is approaching the zero line from above, suggesting the bullish momentum is easing. 

Resistance level: 106.15, 107.05

Support level: 105.80, 105.25

XAU/USD, H1

Gold prices have experienced a significant downturn from their recent all-time highs reached last week, although the bearish momentum appears to have stabilised around the strong support level near $2326. The movement of gold prices continues to be closely tied to developments in Middle East tensions, and recent indications of easing tensions in the region have contributed to the decline in gold prices. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in the region are being closely monitored to determine the future direction of gold prices.

Gold prices have found support and are buoyed at above $2326 level after a week-long plummet. The RSI is close to the oversold zone, while the MACD has broken below the zero line, suggesting the bearish momentum is overwhelming. 

Resistance level: 2360.00, 2375.00

Support level: 2326.00, 2300.00

GBP/USD，H4

The GBP/USD pair saw a modest rebound from its recent downtrend, albeit against a backdrop of dollar strength that has persisted since the start of the month. However, Sterling's resilience has been tested by market speculation surrounding the possibility of an early rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the UK's PMI readings later today, which are expected to offer insights into the BoE's potential policy moves and their subsequent impact on the Sterling. 

The GBP/USD pair recorded a minor rebound but remains trading with a bearish trajectory. The RSI remains at a near oversold zone, while the MACD Head Is lower, suggesting that the bearish momentum is overwhelming. 

Resistance level: 1.2370, 1.2440

Support level: 1.2260, 1.2130

EUR/USD，H4

The EUR/USD pair has remained in a consolidation phase since last Monday, with market participants awaiting a decisive catalyst to determine its direction. The forthcoming release of the Eurozone PMI data later today is highly anticipated, as it could provide indications of the economic health of the region and influence the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision on potential early rate cuts. Additionally, the U.S. GDP data scheduled for release on Thursday could also play a critical role in shaping the trajectory of the pair. 

The pair has been consolidating for a week, giving a neutral signal for either direction. The MACD is approaching the zero line from below while the RSI has risen to above 50 level suggesting the bullish momentum is increasing. 

Resistance level: 1.0700, 1.0775

Support level: 1.0630, 1.0560

AUD/USD，H4

The AUD/USD pair surpassed its near resistance level at 0.6448, buoyed by a weakening U.S. dollar. Attention is now turning to the upcoming release of Australian CPI data scheduled for tomorrow. Market participants anticipate this report could show signs of easing inflation, which would provide critical insights into the future monetary policy direction of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Previously maintaining a hawkish stance, the RBA's response to the inflation data could significantly influence the trajectory of the Australian dollar.

The AUD/USD pair has broken above the resistance level and formed a higher-high price pattern, suggesting a trend reversal signal for the pair. The RSI has been gradually moving upward, while the MACD is on the brink of breaking above the zero line, suggesting bullish momentum is forming. 

Resistance level: 0.6500, 0.6590

Support level: 0.6450, 0.6410 

Nasdaq, H4

The Nasdaq has recently shown a slight easing in its bearish momentum, despite a strong downward trend. In the latest session, all U.S. equity markets experienced an uptick in anticipation of major tech companies releasing their earnings reports this week, including Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet. However, investors should not overlook the significant economic data due later this week; the U.S. GDP figures set for release on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Friday are expected to have a substantial impact on the equity markets.

Nasdaq remained trading within its downtrend channel despite recording a technical rebound last session. The RSI edged higher yesterday, while the MACD crossed at the bottom, suggesting the bearish momentum has drastically eased. 

Resistance level: 17400.00, 17715.00

Support level: 17090.00, 16660.00

CL OIL, H4

Oil prices have remained within a narrow trading range following a notable decline last week, which coincided with a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The recent buildup in U.S. crude stockpiles, as indicated by data released since last week, has added to the pressure on oil prices. Market participants are now eagerly awaiting Thursday's release of U.S. GDP figures, which will provide insight into the economic conditions in the United States and their potential impact on both domestic crude demand and the overall direction of oil prices.

Oil prices are currently buoyed above their crucial liquidity zone at near the $81 mark. The RSI is ticking higher, while the MACD shows signs of a rebound, suggesting a potential change in the direction of oil prices. 

Resistance level: 82.85, 84.65

Support level: 80.45, 78.00