Today's Market Pulse

Market Overview

Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG. That's up from an estimated growth of 7.1% as of Friday.

Reports on Walmart results will be out next week. 

Israel and Hamas continue indirect talks for a ceasefire deal. 

There are growing expectations for a deal in the war between Israel and the Hamas militant group risen after Israel rejected an Egyptian ceasefire proposal accepted by Hamas on Monday, but said it will send a representative to further indirect negotiations in Cairo, even as it stepped up attacks in the crowded city of Rafah in southern Gaza. 

We must continue to watch how this develops and react accordingly. To call out on GOLD and Oil momentum by each days close will only confuse as these conflicts will only escalate or die down depending on political discussions or intervention. 

“Gold has shifted into consolidation mode and is now testing the thesis that a correction can be moderate if the Fed manages to avoid introducing the possibility of further hikes being required in this cycle,” Deutsche Bank said in a Monday note. “This will depend on economic data, and the US April employment report serves as an important point of reassurance.”

On the inflation side of things in the US economy, it still isnt answered as the FED remains quiet and waiting on their decision for data releases. 

“It's a quiet day, the major averages are flat, and there's some profit taking,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. “The focus remains on the Fed, but the Fed is pretty clear that there's little that's happening any time soon.”

To the analysts, they do not disregard their confidence that inflation ‘will’ go down. However, they question the possibility of a rate cut this year:

“It's not that we don't think that inflation is going to come down. We just don't think that in view of having had three top-side prints on inflation, that we're going to get comfort with inflation that quickly,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and interest rates strategist at Macquarie in New York.

“It's going to take more than one print, maybe even more than two prints of low inflation before the Fed is comfortable, and that just means that there's not going to be enough time potentially this year to squeeze in two rate cuts.”

GOLD -Gold closed on a negative yesterday, ranging between 2332.174 and 2295.536. We wait for the price to break the range before calling out anything on this market. But at the current price placement, we can see the collection of orders taking place.

SILVER - Silver is on a good level as we can see a potential SHS formation on a bigger timeframe. We can see the market collecting more orders. However, we do need to see a break beyond 27.552 before a call for continuation.

DXY - The dollar in a corrective pullback from the aggressive pushdown. We cannot call on anything for this until sufficient structure breaks happen. But as it stands, the price is between 105.840 and 105.071. Another break below will call for a test on 104.607.

GBPUSD -GBPUSD is still being supported by its daily range and is respecting top side structure. We continue to wait on this pair as not much action has been made other than a negative candle print on the daily. 

AUDUSD -AUDUSD on a corrective pullback from 0.66145 after its aggressive push. Bullish structures are still respected and we continue to wait for the price to move accordingly.

NZDUSD -  We see the price ranging above 0.59796, which is a good indication for a collection of orders to continue the price push toward the topside.

EURUSD - EUR is respectful of the bullish structure and we see it on a corrective move. We continue to wait for the price to move accordingly.

USDJPY -There are small movements toward the upside for the USDJPY overnight. Continue to practice prudence as government intervention may come at any given time.

USDCHF - The USDCHF has gained a bit of strength from where its at. We may see a price test at the bottom of the range or very suddenly push down. We wait for the price to move.

USDCAD -While USDCAD still respects the bearish structure, the upside push has caught many off guard. We wait for the price to push beyond 1.37881 or below 1.36563 before calling for any general direction. But we continue to see this market to be bearish.