Global Market and Political Shifts: A Comprehensive Analysis Part 2

9

The euro fell after the French election due to concerns over fiscal policy. No party won a majority, increasing the risk of political instability but potentially limiting the influence of the left-wing New People's Front and Marine Le Pen's National Rally, both of which proposed increased public spending.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased political uncertainty could weaken the EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY

Impact on Shares:

European Market: Negative impact on financial and government sector stocks.

Companies:BNP Paribas (BNP.PA), Société Générale (GLE.PA)

10

As the 10th anniversary of the Apple Watch approaches, Apple plans a significant update. The new Series 10 (codenamed N217 and N218) will feature larger displays similar to the Apple Watch Ultra. Series 10 and the new Ultra 3 will be equipped with new chips, laying the foundation for future AI enhancements. However, Apple Intelligence (Apple's upcoming AI feature suite) will currently only be used for iPhone, iPad, and Mac, with potential future applications for Vision Pro.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive corporate news could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Tech Market:Positive impact on technology sector stocks.

Companies:Apple Inc. (AAPL)

11

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, where he is expected to tell lawmakers that Fed officials need further confirmation that inflation is slowing before they can consider lowering interest rates. Despite evidence of slowing economic growth and employment, he remains cautious.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Continued cautious stance could stabilize the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Market: Potential stabilization of financial sector stocks.

Companies:JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC)

12

The Hong Kong dollar continued its rise for four months ending in June, the longest rally since 2020. This trend is expected to continue as July is the peak season for dividend payments by Hong Kong companies.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased demand for the HKD could strengthen the HKD.

FX Pair:USD/HKD, EUR/HKD, GBP/HKD

Impact on Shares:

Hong Kong Market:Positive impact on financial sector stocks.

Companies:HSBC Holdings (0005.HK), AIA Group (1299.HK)

13

Zimbabwe's new central bank governor John Mangudya achieved the seemingly impossible goal of creating a stable currency and curbing price pressures within his first 100 days in office, in a country notorious for hyperinflation and currency collapse.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Stabilized currency could strengthen the ZWL.

FX Pair:USD/ZWL, EUR/ZWL, GBP/ZWL

Impact on Shares:

Zimbabwean Market:Positive impact on market sentiment and stocks.

Companies:Major Zimbabwean firms

14

Despite India's rapid economic growth at 7%, Citibank states that it will be difficult to create enough jobs for its growing workforce over the next decade. The bank suggests that the world's most populous country needs to take more consistent measures to promote employment and skill development.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Concerns over job creation could weaken the INR.

FX Pair:USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR

Impact on Shares:

Indian Market:Negative impact on market sentiment and stocks.

Companies:Major Indian firms

15

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the EU's recovery fund is becoming one of the EU's success stories and is starting to show results in the economy. Lagarde made this statement at a conference in Aix-en-Provence, southern France, emphasizing that the “Next Generation EU” fund is making a difference.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive economic news could strengthen the EUR.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY

Impact on Shares:

European Market: Positive impact on financial and government sector stocks.

Companies:BNP Paribas (BNP.PA), Société Générale (GLE.PA)