Today's Financial Headlines: A Quick Rundown

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLD - GOLD is currently near 2483.417, and is finding support from this level. We expect further trading to happen soon as data releases are underway, especially with the news to be released tomorrow. We suggest holding strongly onto the GOLD buying bias but having the appropriate technical readings ready to suggest alternative possibilities that may push prices lower. However, the most recent escalations, which we will discuss tomorrow, have pushed price expectations for GOLD and safe-haven assets higher. In the near term, we will not experience this yet and find lackluster activity across the board despite the said issues.

SILVER - SILVER has found grounds at 27.725 as we expected, and is now climbing upward. The possibility for the price to drop deeper is still there–depending on the results to come out from the FED rate cuts, but we can see this rising from here and making a reset, with the chances for the price to return to 27.725 again for a re-test.

DXY - The dollar drops and weakens after data showed U.S. job openings dropping to a 3-1/2-year low in July, suggesting the labor market was losing steam, with the figures coming after Tuesday's ISM manufacturing survey which remained in contraction territory. The figures suggest that the U.S. economy stays on the cooling side–which suggests a heightened expectation of a 50 bps cut in the meeting this September. Traders are now pricing in a 44% chance of an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut when the Fed meets later this month, up from 38% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

This means–if the FED does cut bigger, there is a chance that the economic outlook for the dollar will be better, and the dollar will be stronger. While this may sound good, it is not exactly true all the time. 

GBPUSD - Until the rate cuts, we will expect the pound to rise further as traders leave risk-on assets to find better alternatives that can show a more probable trade setup. With that said, we expect the pound to continue upward until the rate cut itself, and find the dollar strengthened if the cuts are bigger than expected. Although the increased strength of the dollar will not be sudden after the cut, you will instead find a weakened dollar right after the announcement, you will see its gradual growth as investors price in an outlook for a better economy, and a growing stock and labor market–similar to the Kiwi’s behavior.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar is currently at 0.67147 and is finding further weakness to come into the market despite the dollar's weakness. However, we see that there was recovery after the sharp breakthrough structure. Price can move upward from here, or find itself consolidated for a while until the data release set for tomorrow. We wait for further confirmations but allow us to navigate through the smaller instances of price in this chart.

NZDUSD -  The Kiwi remained consolidated at 0.62086 while the price failed to break above it. We remain looking very bullish for this market, and expect further growth to come into price as we near the data releases. However, there is a chance for this to lose out against the dollar further if the FED issues a 50 bps cut.

EURUSD - The Euro is finding strength against the dollar and as we expected, it will further its trading upward. However, it will require more momentum and strength to push prices up toward 1.11386, and Friday’s release of Non-farm payrolls may give that strength to push it as markets price in a higher chance of a 50 bps rate cut.

USDJPY - The Yen finds incredible strength as traders leave risk-on assets, finding itself lower than the previous low point–changing our bias and outlook on the chart. With this, we may expect further selling to come until next week.

USDCHF - The Franc is currently finding strength back in the market–with it forming an SHS formation and confirming it with a pushdown. We may see this market drop further, but depending on the rate cut bps, we may see this market push upward back toward 0.85541 and beyond.

USDCAD - The Loonie is finding strength back despite being called a risk-on asset, due to the relevance of the Oil in the market, and the unrealized increase in demand. Many reasons were being called in the market for the Oil prices dropping, but in our narrative, we see it failing to rise due to the market avoiding panic buying. However, we continue to expect its price to rise further and see higher prices soon. Can this be controlled? Yes, if all things go well for America’s project with Africa, we may find a lessened worry about oil supply.