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Market Overview

Market Worries Rise as Trumps Tariff Threats Loom on February 1st

Concerns in the market are growing as the potential for a stronger U.S. dollar emerges ahead of Trumps tariff decisions. Speculation continues over whether oil imports from Canada and Mexico will be included in the tariff list, with Trump stating that his decision will depend on whether the prices charged for oil are deemed fair. A final determination is expected by the evening of January 31st.

It is widely anticipated that he will impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on all imports from China. Additionally, discussions are underway regarding potential tariffs on India and Brazil for allegedly harming U.S. interests.

Tariffs on Colombia have been put on hold after the country acknowledged Trumps threats and agreed to accept deported migrants from the U.S.

If Trump moves forward with imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, it will likely drive GOLD prices higher and strengthen the U.S. dollar from its current levels.

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD has reached a new high at 2797.055 ahead of Trumps tariff decisions. Market expectations suggest that this is not the end of the rally, with projections for GOLD to rise toward 3,000 or beyond. We also second this view as market momentum continues to increase, with both the MACD and RSI supporting further buying. Price action remains bullish overall, reinforcing our expectations for continued upside.

SILVER - SILVER prices followed GOLDs rally, as anticipated. The MACD is growing in both momentum and volume, while the RSI is also reflecting an explosive surge in buying pressure. The EMA200 remains steady in its bullish trend, confirming the strength of the uptrend. We expect further gains in the coming days.

DXY - The Dollar remains consolidated beneath the previous swing high. Momentum and volume are still lacking conviction for a decisive move. Support at 107.834 is holding, and we are seeing expanding bullish movement. However, the EMA200 is currently acting as resistance, keeping price in consolidation for now.

GBPUSD - The Pound remains in a prolonged consolidation phase. The MACD is still muted, and the RSI is also lacking conviction in any direction. The market appears to be waiting for Trumps tariff decisions before making a move.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar is still bearish but is losing momentum as it approaches the lower boundary of its consolidation zone. The RSI is neutral, failing to indicate a strong directional bias, while the MACD is showing muted histograms with little volume. While overall price action remains bearish, we wait for more market activity before confirming a continuation or reversal.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi has confirmed its bearish shift, with price breaking lower as expected. However, both the MACD and RSI show weak momentum and volume, indicating a lack of strength behind the move. The EMA200 and overall price action remain bearish, but price needs additional strength to break out of its consolidation zone.

EURUSD - The Euro has finally crashed below its previous swing low, confirming increasing selling momentum. The EMA200 is now acting as resistance, reinforcing the bearish trend. However, both the MACD and RSI are still muted, failing to provide a clear directional bias at the moment.

USDJPY - The Yen is still moving sideways, with no strong conviction for a breakout in either direction. Support at 153.868 is holding firm. Strength in the Yen is expected to persist against other currencies, supported by expectations of further BOJ rate hikes. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reaffirmed that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if economic conditions align with forecasts. Tokyos core inflation data on Friday showed a 2.5% increase—the fastest annual pace in nearly a year—adding further weight to expectations of more tightening. Analysts anticipate continued Yen strength, with Rabobank predicting USD/JPY to reach 145 by year-end.

USDCHF - The Franc is losing strength as price action shifts upward. The EMA200 is now positioned below current price levels, suggesting a potential bullish continuation. However, both the MACD and RSI remain in consolidation, lacking a clear directional bias.

USDCAD - The CAD weakened significantly after Trump hinted at a possible 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian oil, set for February 1. The Bank of Canada warned that a tariff war could harm the economy and cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. Recent CAD declines are attributed to trade policy uncertainty, with 2-year Canadian bond yields dropping 5.9 basis points to 2.738%, widening the spread with U.S. yields to 147 basis points—the widest since September 1997. Despite expected further CAD weakness, the market remains in a bullish structure, with a strengthening MACD and stable RSI. Overall, price action rem