Eyes on Today’s FOMC Minutes

• RBNZ cut the rate by 50 bps and delivered a dovish statement followed by the rate cut, weighing on the Kiwi.

• Trump's new tariff threat strengthens the dollar and fuels Wall Street.

• Gold prices back to all-time peak territory as uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies heightened.

Market Summary

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a larger rate cut by 50 bps, weighing heavily on the Kiwi dollar. The NZD/USD pair tumbled to a weekly low, under pressure from the central bank‘s dovish stance, as policymakers signaled further rate cuts ahead to support the country’s struggling economy. Unlike the RBA, which maintained a hawkish tone after its rate cut, the RBNZ‘s outright dovish guidance has accelerated the Kiwi’s decline.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar found support after former President Trump threatened new tariffs, proposing a 25% levy on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor products. This protectionist policy shift boosted sentiment on Wall Street, pushing both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record highs.

The market now turns to today‘s FOMC meeting minutes, which will be crucial in shaping the greenback’s near-term trajectory, as well as broader risk sentiment. In the UK, the Pound Sterling has been firm in recent sessions, with traders eyeing todays UK CPI release, expected to show an upbeat inflation print, potentially fueling further gains for GBP/USD.

In the gold market, spot prices surged to a fresh all-time high, as Trumps tariff threats reignited uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical and economic risks.

Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (98%) VS -25 bps (2%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The U.S. dollar index traded flat but saw a mild rebound after Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reaffirmed a steady-rate stance, citing persistent inflation concerns. While opposing immediate rate cuts, Harker emphasized the Feds data-dependent approach, keeping investors focused on upcoming economic indicators for potential policy shifts. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields also remained stable as markets awaited further clarity on interest rate direction.

The Dollar Index is trading higher following the prior rebound from the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 47, suggesting the index might extend its gains since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory.

Resistance level: 107.45, 108.40

Support level: 106.55, 105.65

XAU/USD, H4

Global markets remain volatile as escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty drive investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold extended its rally amid heightened risk aversion after former U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats, proposing duties of up to 25% on semiconductor chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car imports. The prospect of higher tariffs has raised fears of supply chain disruptions and slower global growth, further bolstering demand for gold.

Gold prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 57, suggesting the commodity might experience technical correction since the RSI retreated from overbought territory.

Resistance level: 2935.00, 2955.00

Support level: 2915.00, 2875.00

GBP/USD，H4

The Pound Sterling has held firm in recent sessions, but GBP/USD has struggled to gain clear directional momentum, trading sideways as the resurgent U.S. dollar offsets its strength. The greenback has found renewed support after reports suggested that the Trump administration is preparing a new round of protectionist policies, including tariffs on key sectors. Meanwhile, market participants are closely watching todays UK CPI release, with expectations of rising inflationary pressure in the UK.

GBP/USD has been consolidating after the pair rallied by more than 2% since last week. The RSI remained close to the overbought zone while the MACD saw a cross on the above, which signalled an easing of the bullish momentum.

Resistance level: 1.2730, 1.2850

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2375

Crude Oil, H4

Crude oil prices rebounded after reports that OPEC+ may postpone planned production increases in April, while geopolitical risks added to supply concerns. A senior Russian official claimed Ukrainian drone attacks damaged a key oil pipeline responsible for 1% of global crude output. While this disruption fueled short-term supply fears, optimism over potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks capped further gains.

Crude oil prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 60, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline.

Resistance level: 71.95, 72.55

Support level: 70.95, 70.25