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Market Overview

This week features key economic reports: US Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Australian CPI on Wednesday, US prelim GDP and unemployment claims on Thursday, and US Core PCE Price Index on Friday, alongside Canadian GDP and German Preliminary CPI. Concerns over Trumps tariffs are raising inflation fears, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold in the short term, though gold may rise long-term.

Tariff Developments

Trump plans 25% tariffs on auto imports and higher levies on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by April 2, 2025. Steel and aluminum tariffs will increase to 25% by March 12, 2025. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are suspended until March 4, 2025, while a 10% tariff on Chinese imports took effect on February 4, 2025. Reciprocal tariffs to match other countries rates on US exports are planned by April 2025.

Geopolitical Tensions

Escalations between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt Trumps tariff plans. Russian forces are active in Kharkiv and Luhansk, while Ukraine resists peace terms favoring Russia. Zelenskyy has offered to step down for peace and NATO membership. These tensions may influence global markets and trade policies.

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD prices have failed to surpass the previous high, indicating hesitation from last week. However, expectations remain for a potential rise this week, fueled by concerns over additional tariffs hitting the markets. Analysts are also watching inflation reports closely, as they will influence the FED‘s interest rate decisions. If rates remain high, GOLD’s appeal could weaken, potentially leading to a drop in prices and a corresponding rise in the Dollar lasting a quarter or two. Nevertheless, long-term expectations for GOLD remain bullish, serving as a hedge against Dollar-related risks.

SILVER - If GOLD prices stall, SILVER is also likely to slow down, especially if the Dollar becomes a more attractive option. Momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI are showing growing bearish signals, with prices starting to dip below the EMA200 and 32.5177 support level. A test of the previous higher swing low could signal a shift in medium-term price direction.

DXY - The Dollar has found strength despite inflation concerns from Trumps comments. Market participants are waiting for inflation reports to gauge how the FED will handle interest rates this year. Currently, technical indicators dominate analysis. The MACD is nearing a bearish cross, and the RSI is approaching oversold levels, suggesting a short-term bounce before another potential decline. The EMA200 and overall price action remain bearish.

GBPUSD - The Pound is showing bullish momentum, with prices bouncing off 1.26163. While the RSI indicates overbought conditions, the MACD is close to crossing upward, leaving room for continued bullish growth. Well monitor how prices react, but the overall trend remains positive.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar continues its bullish movement, bouncing off the EMA200 and 0.63407. Though the MACD hasnt yet signaled an upward shift, the RSI is at overbought levels. This suggests a potential sideways movement or slight dip before resuming an upward trend. The broader price action remains bullish.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi maintains its bullish momentum, staying above its previous high. Prices are rebounding from a key zone, with the MACD showing muted selling volume and the RSI reflecting oversold conditions. Overall, the trend remains upward.

EURUSD - The Euro has broken past its consolidation boundary, signaling further bullish potential due to Dollar weakness. While the MACD hasnt yet confirmed buying strength, the RSI indicates overbought levels. Prices may consolidate briefly before continuing higher, but the overall market sentiment remains bullish.

USDJPY - The Yen is extending its bearish trend, with the MACD crossing downward and the RSI showing overbought levels despite minimal price movement. Selling momentum continues to dominate, and we expect further declines.

USDCHF - The Franc is gaining against the Dollar. The MACD is nearing a bearish cross, while the RSI remains steady despite falling prices, suggesting building momentum for continued downside movement.

USDCAD - The CAD remains in a holding pattern with no significant movement yet. Until clearer price action emerges, the bearish bias stays intact as prices continue to face rejection at higher levels.

COT Report Analysis

AUD - WEAK (3/5)

GBP - WEAK (1/5)

CAD - WEAK (4/5)

EUR - WEAK (3/5)

JPY - STRONG (5/5)

CHF - WEAK (5/5)

USD - STRONG (5/5)

NZD - WEAK (5/5)

GOLD - STRONG (4/5)

SILVER - STRONG (5/5)