USDJPY Analysis: Key Long-Term Support Under Siege

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY for August 14, 2025.

Technical Analysis of USDJPYUSDJPY Daily Chart Insights

• After a robust surge in late July drove the price to fresh highs around 151.00, the currency pair has undergone a steep correction. Recent candlestick patterns reveal intensifying downward pressure, culminating in a significant bearish formation. The Stochastic indicator, previously elevated in overbought territory above 80, has reversed course dramatically, signaling weakening bullish momentum and the onset of a downward adjustment.

• Key support area: The immediate support zone between 146.25-147.00 is critical, and former June/July resistance that now acts as support. Holding this zone is essential for maintaining the bullish outlook. Secondary support sits at 144.00, matching June‘s swing low and serving as the next target if the immediate support fails. Major support around 142.00 represents April 2025’s significant low, where a break would invalidate the current bullish structure.

USDJPY 2-hour Chart Analysis

• The Stochastic oscillator has entered oversold territory beneath the 20 level, indicating that the recent decline may have become overextended and could warrant a temporary pause or minor rebound. Nevertheless, during robust downward trends, prices often persist in oversold conditions for prolonged periods.

• Breakout scenarios: The bearish breakdown follows the current downtrends path of least resistance. A sustained break below 146.55 on the H2 chart would confirm the downtrend continuation, targeting 146.00 initially, then 145.80. The bullish breakout requires significant momentum shift against the trend. A decisive break above 147.70-148.00 resistance would signal reversal by overcoming all three moving averages and major support/resistance, shifting bias to neutral-bullish and targeting 148.50.

USDJPY Pivot Indicator

• The price is positioned well beneath all three moving averages. These moving averages display a fanned-out formation while trending sharply downward, representing a textbook indication of robust, established bearish momentum. Recent trading activity, particularly the substantial bearish candles from August 13th, demonstrates that sellers have assumed complete market control.

• Bearish Breakdown (Continuation): The continuation pattern would be triggered by a sustained 30-minute candle close below the current low of 146.46, which would signal the persistence of the strong downtrend. With no clear support levels below this point, likely targets would be psychological round numbers such as 146.25 and 146.00.

• Bullish Breakout (Corrective Bounce): The bullish breakout is a lower probability scenario, initially viewed as a counter-trend correction rather than reversal. The price must first reclaim 147.00-147.10 to show stabilization, with more meaningful reversal signals requiring a decisive break above 147.40-147.50, indicating exhausted selling pressure. A break above 147.50 would target 147.90-148.10, where only a move above this major resistance would neutralize the current bearish intraday outlook.

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