Safe Havens and Storms: Silver Sees “Epic” Volatility

Market Overview

U.S. equities rebounded on the back of stronger-than-expected durable goods orders, with all three major indices closing at over one-week highs. However, chipmakers and small-cap stocks underperformed as capital rotated elsewhere. On the single-stock front, Apple gained nearly 3%, while Tesla fell more than 3% amid renewed concerns over intensifying competition.

In policy-related news, the Trump administration announced a USD 1.6 billion equity investment in USA Rare Earth, acquiring a 10% stake to bolster supply chain security, sending the stock up nearly 8%. Separately, NVIDIA committed an additional USD 2 billion investment to AI cloud provider CoreWeave to support the build-out of so-called “AI factories,” lifting CoreWeave shares by almost 6%.

Macro and FX Turbulence

FX Chain Reactions:

Strong demand at U.S. Treasury auctions helped stabilize bond prices, while the U.S. dollar index fell below the 97 level for the first time in four months. The Japanese yen strengthened to a two-month high on signs of potential government intervention. Offshore RMB outperformed notably, breaking above 6.95 for a second consecutive session and marking its strongest level in over two years.

Energy Shock from Extreme Weather:

A historic winter storm, “Finn,” swept across the eastern United States, triggering widespread power outages and severely disrupting natural gas production. U.S. natural gas futures surged more than 40% intraday amid acute supply concerns.

Commodities Enter a “Milestone” Phase of Volatility

Precious Metals in Turmoil:

Spot gold surged past the USD 5,000 mark for the first time in history, at one point gaining more than 2%. Silver, however, stole the spotlight. Prices staged their most aggressive intraday rally since 2008, spiking as much as 14% to nearly USD 118 before profit-taking erased most of the gains, leaving silver up less than 1% by the close.

Energy and Crypto:

Crude oil retreated after touching weekly highs, weighed down by inventory expectations. In digital assets, Bitcoin found support near USD 86,000 and rebounded more than 3% intraday.

Key Outlook● OPEC+ Signals Potential Extension of Production Freeze into March

Against a backdrop of structural oversupply in global crude markets and ongoing geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain the production freeze initially announced in November for the first quarter. Saudi Arabia and Russia are set to lead the upcoming virtual meeting to review and reaffirm the policy stance.

● Silver Surges 14%, Then Gives It All Back

Silver prices in New York spiked 14% intraday to a record high of USD 118 before sharply retracing, ultimately closing up just 1%. Volatility metrics soared to 106, with markets now pricing in daily swings of around 7%. Trading behavior has moved well beyond retail-driven dynamics.

Silver ETF trading volumes hit record levels, while technical charts printed a classic “shooting star” reversal pattern. Analysts caution that the parabolic advance shows signs of an exhaustion top, suggesting the speculative phase of this rally may be nearing its end.

Events to Watch (GMT+8)

22:00 US

• FHFA House Price Index (MoM, November)

• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (YoY, November)

23:00 US

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (January)

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (January)