FPG USDJPY Market Report March 10, 2026

USDJPY on the H4 timeframe continues to move within a well-defined bullish ascending channel that has developed over the past several weeks. Price briefly moved slightly outside the lower boundary of the channel near 156.44 but quickly recovered back inside the structure, indicating that buyers are still actively defending the trend support. The pair is currently trading around 157.67, aligning closely with the diagonal support of the bullish channel. This area remains technically important, as it will determine whether price can maintain the upward structure within the channel or begin to weaken toward a deeper correction.

From a technical perspective, the overall price structure remains constructive as the pair continues to respect the ascending channel formation. Bollinger Bands remain moderately expanded, reflecting sustained volatility within the ongoing trend while price continues to fluctuate around the mid-band area. The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) has recently dropped sharply toward the oversold region, indicating a potential exhaustion of short-term selling momentum after the recent pullback. Meanwhile, Bulls Power has weakened significantly and is hovering near neutral levels, suggesting that bullish pressure has temporarily softened while the market tests the lower boundary of the channel support.

The movement of USDJPY continues to be heavily influenced by the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, with relatively higher U.S. interest rates supporting the dollar against the yen. Key U.S. macroeconomic indicators—including inflation data, labor market conditions, and Treasury yields—remain central to shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve‘s policy path and consequently the pair’s direction. At the same time, rising inflation pressures in Japan and increasing speculation about further policy normalization by the Bank of Japan have strengthened expectations of potential yen appreciation. Market participants are also closely watching the possibility of Japanese government intervention if USDJPY approaches the psychologically important 160 level.

Technical Market Overview

1. Current Position: USDJPY is trading around 157.67, fluctuating near the lower boundary of the ascending bullish channel that has guided the broader uptrend over recent weeks.

2. Resistance Zone: The nearest resistance is located around 159.22, corresponding to the upper boundary of the ascending channel where previous rallies have encountered selling pressure.

3. Support Zone: Immediate support is positioned near 156.44, which aligns with the horizontal support level.

4. Indicator Observation: Bollinger Bands indicate sustained volatility while price remains close to the mid-band area within the broader upward structure. The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) has declined sharply toward the oversold region, signaling fading short-term downside momentum. Meanwhile, Bulls Power has softened and is currently hovering near neutral territory, reflecting a temporary pause in bullish pressure as the market tests channel support.

5. Technical Summary: USDJPY remains within a broader bullish channel structure despite the recent pullback toward its lower boundary. Momentum indicators show short-term weakening but remain consistent with a corrective phase within the prevailing upward trend structure.

Market Performance:

Forex Last Price % Change

EUR/USD 1.1631 −0.05%

GBP/USD 1.3441 −0.01%

Today's Key Economic Calendar:

JP: Household Spending MoM & YoY

AU: Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index

JP: GDP Growth Annualized & GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final

UK: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY

AU: NAB Business Confidence

CN: Balance of Trade

CN: Exports & Imports YoY

DE: Balance of Trade

DE: Exports MoM

US: ADP Employment Change Weekly

US: Existing Home Sales

Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.