U.S.–Iran Direct Talks May Resume This Weekend

[Chart 1: U.S.–Iran Geopolitical Overview]

U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the next round of direct talks with Iran could take place this weekend in Islamabad. He suggested the current ceasefire may be extended if needed and highlighted a “substantial” Iranian commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, reportedly valid for over 20 years.

Trump stated both sides are “very close” to an agreement and aims to finalize negotiations during the ceasefire period. He noted the deal could grant the U.S. access to “free oil” and unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while warning that failure could reignite conflict.

At the same time, Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective Thursday 5 PM ET. Israel agreed but will maintain forces in southern Lebanon as a buffer zone, retaining self-defense rights. The U.S. emphasized no offensive actions during the ceasefire. Trump plans to host both sides for talks, while Iran responded cautiously.

Escalating “Maximum Pressure”

The U.S. has launched an “Economic Fury” campaign, intensifying economic and military pressure on Iran. Expanded blockades on Iranian shipping have forced at least 13 vessels to turn back.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply from 135 vessels per day to just 11, severely disrupting Irans ~1.7 million barrels/day oil exports. While alternative routes via UAE waters are being tested, overall flow remains significantly constrained.

Iran condemned the move as “economic terrorism.” Gulf and European officials estimate a full agreement could take up to six months, suggesting a ceasefire extension may be necessary. The U.S. Defense Secretary warned military action remains on the table if talks fail.

Progress vs. Key Gaps

Trump remains optimistic, stating Iran has agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons. However, major disagreements persist over nuclear program details, the reopening timeline of the Strait of Hormuz, enriched uranium handling, and frozen asset releases.

Iran has also set conditions for further talks and proposed free navigation on the Omani side of the Strait.

Fragile Ceasefire & Global Risks

The Israel–Lebanon ceasefire remains fragile. Hezbollah has rejected direct talks and accused Israel of violating past agreements. Whether the short-term truce leads to broader negotiations remains uncertain.

Fed Uncertainty Adds Pressure

Domestically, leadership uncertainty at the Federal Reserve is adding risk. With May 15 approaching, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has refused early resignation.

The confirmation of Kevin Warsh has stalled due to political opposition, raising uncertainty over the transition timeline. Trump has threatened dismissal, which could trigger legal challenges and undermine Fed independence.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has shifted to a cautious stance, supporting a wait-and-see approach amid rising energy prices. This signals reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts. If Warsh takes office, policy uncertainty may increase further.

Macro Outlook

The U.S. is pursuing a dual-track strategy: offering incentives such as ceasefire extensions while applying maximum pressure through blockades. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pose immediate risks to global energy supply.

Combined with a fragile Middle East ceasefire and Fed leadership uncertainty, markets face heightened volatility. A breakthrough in Islamabad could stabilize energy markets, while failure may lead to renewed conflict, driving energy price spikes, inflation risks, and monetary policy uncertainty.

Gold Technical Analysis (H1)

[Chart 2: Gold H1 Technical Analysis] />

[Chart 2: Gold H1 Technical Analysis]

Gold rebounded from the 4800 support level and approached 4900 but failed to hold gains, pulling back into a range-bound structure. Selling pressure has emerged at higher levels, with bullish momentum slowing.

Strategy:

• Range trading preferred

• 4900 = key resistance (bearish bias if rejected)

• 4800 = key support (break may target 4700)

• Break above 4900 = bullish continuation

Risk Disclaimer

This material is for general market commentary only and does not represent the platforms position. Investors should assess risks independently and trade with caution.