ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Rebounds to $4,753 as Ceasefire Frays

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on May 11 (Monday), spot gold rebounded after an intraday drop. Prices briefly fell to USD 4,648.14 per ounce before closing 0.4% higher at USD 4,734.63. US gold futures were almost flat, settling near USD 4,728.70.

On May 12 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, spot gold traded around USD 4,753 per ounce. Gold continued to recover from recent lows as markets assessed the latest US-Iran developments and awaited key US inflation data.

Global Headlines

US Iran Ceasefire Faces Pressure

Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire remains extremely fragile and rejected Irans latest peace proposal. Iran demanded an end to the maritime blockade, sanctions relief, and partial control over Strait of Hormuz shipping. US officials said Trump will discuss next steps with his national security team, including the possible resumption of military action.

FED Hike Odds Fall Sharply

According to CME FEDWatch data, markets price a 97.7% probability that the FED keeps rates unchanged in June. By December, the chance of no change stands at 69.7%, while the probability of at least one 25bp rate cut is 3.9%. The chance of a 25bp rate hike has fallen to 26.3%.

Uranium Dispute Remains Deeply Divided

Iranian officials said major gaps remain with the US over enriched uranium disposal, the timeline for suspending enrichment, and war compensation. The US is seeking access to Irans 60% enriched uranium and opposes a transfer to Russia. Iran rejects moving the uranium overseas but is willing to dilute it under IAEA supervision.

Trump Weighs Cuba Military Options

Trump is reportedly frustrated that Cuba‘s government has not collapsed despite continued US pressure. He has repeatedly asked advisers why Cuba’s leadership remains in power. The Pentagon has accelerated planning for possible military options against Cuba, though no final decision has been made.

PBOC Highlights AI Economic Support

The PBOC released its first-quarter 2026 monetary policy report, stressing the need to balance macroprudential policy with monetary policy and improve the dual-pillar framework. The report said Chinas balance of payments can remain broadly stable, while AI will provide stronger support for high-quality economic growth.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Spot gold remains in a short-term recovery structure, with 4,705 acting as the key support level. If prices stay above 4,705, rebound momentum may continue, with upside levels to watch at 4,795 and 4,830.

If gold falls below 4,705, the structure may weaken again. In that case, support is seen at 4,680 and 4,650. Overall, gold is still in a consolidation and recovery phase after rebounding from recent lows.

RSI is moving higher, showing an improvement in short-term momentum. Bullish strength is still rebuilding. With markets reacting to US-Iran negotiations, inflation expectations, and rate path pricing, price swings may remain repeated and uneven.

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