EUR/USD gathered extra steam and challenged the critical 200-day SMA near 1.0870, up for the third straight day. Germany’s Retail Sales and Import Prices are due in the first turn, seconded by the preliminary Inflation Rate in the euro area as well as the Unemployment Rate. GBP/USD came under pressure following two daily advances in a row and a climb to four-month tops in UK 10-year gilts. The speech by the BoE’s Breeden will be the only event on the UK docket. USD/JPY saw another session of sidelined trading amidst steady prudence prior to the interest rate decision by the BoJ and vital US data releases. The BoJ’s interest rate decision will be the salient event followed by the BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report. In addition, advanced Industrial Production results are due along with weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures, Housing Starts, and Construction Orders. AUD/USD regained the smile and reversed three daily retracements in arow, coming just short of the key 0.6600 hurdle. Retail Sales will be published in Oz, seconded by Housing Credit figures, Export and Import Prices, and Private Sector Credit data. WTI prices rose to weekly highs on the back of a bullish weekly report from the EIA and speculation that the OPEC+ could delay its plans to boost the oil output in December. Prices of Gold maintained their upside well in place, reaching an all-time peak near the key $2,800 mark per ounce troy. Silver prices, on the flip side, faded Tuesday’s robust uptick and deflated well below the $34.00 mark per ounce.

EUR/USD gathered extra steam and challenged the critical 200-day SMA near 1.0870, up for the third straight day. Germany’s Retail Sales and Import Prices are due in the first turn, seconded by the preliminary Inflation Rate in the euro area as well as the Unemployment Rate. GBP/USD came under pressure following two daily advances in a row and a climb to four-month tops in UK 10-year gilts. The speech by the BoE’s Breeden will be the only event on the UK docket. USD/JPY saw another session of sidelined trading amidst steady prudence prior to the interest rate decision by the BoJ and vital US data releases. The BoJ’s interest rate decision will be the salient event followed by the BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report. In addition, advanced Industrial Production results are due along with weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures, Housing Starts, and Construction Orders. AUD/USD regained the smile and reversed three daily retracements in arow, coming just short of the key 0.6600 hurdle. Retail Sales will be published in Oz, seconded by Housing Credit figures, Export and Import Prices, and Private Sector Credit data. WTI prices rose to weekly highs on the back of a bullish weekly report from the EIA and speculation that the OPEC+ could delay its plans to boost the oil output in December. Prices of Gold maintained their upside well in place, reaching an all-time peak near the key $2,800 mark per ounce troy. Silver prices, on the flip side, faded Tuesday’s robust uptick and deflated well below the $34.00 mark per ounce.

The US Dollar lost additional momentum on Thursday, primarily as the Japanese yen gained strong support following a slightly hawkish tone from the BoJ meeting, preventing the dollar from recovering any upward traction. Friday’s release of the US labour market report is expected to be pivotal for determining the Fed’s near-term rate path. Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 1: The US Dollar Index (DXY) deflated to multi-day lows and flirted with the critical 200-day SMA in the 103.80 region. The publication of October’s Nonfarm Payrolls will take centre stage, seconded by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Construction Spending. EUR/USD picked up further upside impulse and traded closer to the key barrier at 1.0900 the figure amidst sticky inflation figures in the bloc and shrinking bets for a jumbo rate cut by the ECB in December. GBP/USD faced increasing selling pressure and receded to fresh two-month lows in the 1.2840 zone despite the US Dollar’s offered stance and the perceived as favourable release of the Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The Nationwide Housing Prices are due seconded by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. USD/JPY plummeted to weekly lows and retested the sub-152.00 region after the BoJ kept rates unchanged but left a potential hike on the table for later in the year. The final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI will be published. AUD/USD left behind the initial weakness and advanced modestly, although another test or surpass of the 0.6600 hurdle remained elusive. The final Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI will be unveiled along with Producer Prices, Home Loans, and Investment Lending for Homes. Prices of WTI rose markedly and managed to reclaim the key $70.00 mark per barrel and above in response to prospects for strong US demand and speculation that the OPEC+ could delay its planned oil output boost in December. Gold prices retreated to three-day lows near $2,730 per ounce troy on the back of some profit taking, while the broader outlook is seen constructive. Silver prices followed suit and tumbled to multi-day lows near $32.50 per ounce.

The US Dollar lost additional momentum on Thursday, primarily as the Japanese yen gained strong support following a slightly hawkish tone from the BoJ meeting, preventing the dollar from recovering any upward traction. Friday’s release of the US labour market report is expected to be pivotal for determining the Fed’s near-term rate path. Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 1: The US Dollar Index (DXY) deflated to multi-day lows and flirted with the critical 200-day SMA in the 103.80 region. The publication of October’s Nonfarm Payrolls will take centre stage, seconded by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Construction Spending. EUR/USD picked up further upside impulse and traded closer to the key barrier at 1.0900 the figure amidst sticky inflation figures in the bloc and shrinking bets for a jumbo rate cut by the ECB in December. GBP/USD faced increasing selling pressure and receded to fresh two-month lows in the 1.2840 zone despite the US Dollar’s offered stance and the perceived as favourable release of the Autumn Budget on Wednesday. The Nationwide Housing Prices are due seconded by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. USD/JPY plummeted to weekly lows and retested the sub-152.00 region after the BoJ kept rates unchanged but left a potential hike on the table for later in the year. The final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI will be published. AUD/USD left behind the initial weakness and advanced modestly, although another test or surpass of the 0.6600 hurdle remained elusive. The final Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI will be unveiled along with Producer Prices, Home Loans, and Investment Lending for Homes. Prices of WTI rose markedly and managed to reclaim the key $70.00 mark per barrel and above in response to prospects for strong US demand and speculation that the OPEC+ could delay its planned oil output boost in December. Gold prices retreated to three-day lows near $2,730 per ounce troy on the back of some profit taking, while the broader outlook is seen constructive. Silver prices followed suit and tumbled to multi-day lows near $32.50 per ounce.

XAUUSD MARKET OUTLOOK 📊 Happy Friday everyone 👋 1️⃣ Now Trendline Uptrend is building up and there are already 3 touches. When the M15 candlestick closes below the trendline uptrend, you can enter Sell at (2693 - 2695) and TP at (26786) = Sell 🔴 2️⃣ If the candlestick H4 closes above (2715.18), you can enter Buy at (2714 - 2709) and TP at (2724.94) = Buy 🟢 #Analysis

XAUUSD MARKET OUTLOOK 📊 Happy Friday everyone 👋 1️⃣ Now Trendline Uptrend is building up and there are already 3 touches. When the M15 candlestick closes below the trendline uptrend, you can enter Sell at (2693 - 2695) and TP at (26786) = Sell 🔴 2️⃣ If the candlestick H4 closes above (2715.18), you can enter Buy at (2714 - 2709) and TP at (2724.94) = Buy 🟢 #Analysis

On Thursday, we could see the dollar index pull back from its highs, ending down 0.776% at 104.34, which also marked its biggest one-day gain since March 2020. I think the reason for this may be that Powell did not say that there may be a pause in rate cuts in the future, as predicted yesterday, and investors took profits on the "Trump trade". Treasury yields, on the other hand, gave up the previous day's gains, with the benchmark 10-year yield closing at 4.332%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.199%. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose and showed signs of rising, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market. The US dollar index has not breached the descending trendline and is currently under pressure. Here again, I don't expect the Fed to factor a Trump victory into its near-term interest rate decisions until it has more clarity on the new policy and its impact on inflation. Today's BOE rate decision The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 7:2 in favour of a quarter-point cut and keep its guidance rate relatively unchanged. EUR/USD: 1st support: 1.0747 1st resistance: 1.0859 2nd support: 1.0673 2nd resistance: 1.0897 GBP/USD: 1st support: 1.2914 1st resistance: 1.3053 2nd support: 1.2823 2nd resistance: 1.3101

On Thursday, we could see the dollar index pull back from its highs, ending down 0.776% at 104.34, which also marked its biggest one-day gain since March 2020. I think the reason for this may be that Powell did not say that there may be a pause in rate cuts in the future, as predicted yesterday, and investors took profits on the "Trump trade". Treasury yields, on the other hand, gave up the previous day's gains, with the benchmark 10-year yield closing at 4.332%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.199%. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose and showed signs of rising, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market. The US dollar index has not breached the descending trendline and is currently under pressure. Here again, I don't expect the Fed to factor a Trump victory into its near-term interest rate decisions until it has more clarity on the new policy and its impact on inflation. Today's BOE rate decision The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 7:2 in favour of a quarter-point cut and keep its guidance rate relatively unchanged. EUR/USD: 1st support: 1.0747 1st resistance: 1.0859 2nd support: 1.0673 2nd resistance: 1.0897 GBP/USD: 1st support: 1.2914 1st resistance: 1.3053 2nd support: 1.2823 2nd resistance: 1.3101

Forex trading tip: Manage your risk like it's your job! Set stop losses, avoid overleveraging, and remember that protecting your capital is just as important as making gains.

Forex trading tip: Manage your risk like it's your job! Set stop losses, avoid overleveraging, and remember that protecting your capital is just as important as making gains.

Sometimes, the best trade is no trade at all. Forex isn't about constant action; it's about waiting for the perfect setup and then moving. Missed trades don't hurt as much as bad ones!

Sometimes, the best trade is no trade at all. Forex isn't about constant action; it's about waiting for the perfect setup and then moving. Missed trades don't hurt as much as bad ones!

New traders: don't be afraid to start with a demo account. Learning is key, and it's better to make mistakes with fake money than real cash. Test strategies, practice discipline, and get comfortable before you go live!

New traders: don't be afraid to start with a demo account. Learning is key, and it's better to make mistakes with fake money than real cash. Test strategies, practice discipline, and get comfortable before you go live!

Let's be real: Forex trading is like a workout for your patience. No quick wins here – consistency, discipline, and learning from losses are what get you across the finish line. Stay the course! 💪

Let's be real: Forex trading is like a workout for your patience. No quick wins here – consistency, discipline, and learning from losses are what get you across the finish line. Stay the course! 💪

Forex lifestyle: Setting your own hours, trading from anywhere… and constantly refreshing your charts on ‘vacation.’ 😂 It's the freedom and the curse of trading. Who else feels this?

Forex lifestyle: Setting your own hours, trading from anywhere… and constantly refreshing your charts on ‘vacation.’ 😂 It's the freedom and the curse of trading. Who else feels this?

Ever wondered why so many traders fail? It's not lack of skill; it's lack of patience and emotional control. Forex success is 90% psychology and 10% strategy. Master your mind to master the market!

Ever wondered why so many traders fail? It's not lack of skill; it's lack of patience and emotional control. Forex success is 90% psychology and 10% strategy. Master your mind to master the market!

Forex 101: Don't chase trades, let them come to you. 🧘 The market doesn't care about FOMO, and rushing in usually leads to losses. Sit back, wait for your setup, and stick to your plan.

Forex 101: Don't chase trades, let them come to you. 🧘 The market doesn't care about FOMO, and rushing in usually leads to losses. Sit back, wait for your setup, and stick to your plan.

USD/JPY fell sharply amid the pullback seen in USD as Trump trade unwinds. Pair was last at 151.95 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. JPY set to continue to regain strength “Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell from near overbought conditions. Near term likely to see further pullback. Support at 151.55 (200 DMA), 150.60/70 levels (50% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low, 100 DMA). Resistance at 153.30 (61.8% fibo), 155 and 156.50 (76.4% fibo).” “Governor Ueda said that the current political situation in Japan wouldn’t stop him from lifting rates if prices and the economy stay in line with BoJ’s forecast. He also made reference to FX rates more likely to affect prices in Japan than before. He also said that similar wage deals next year as this year would be good but there is not much information on next year’s shunto yet. Overall, his remarks were more hawkish than expected and is likely to have paved the way for BoJ hike in Dec, which remains our house view.”

USD/JPY fell sharply amid the pullback seen in USD as Trump trade unwinds. Pair was last at 151.95 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. JPY set to continue to regain strength “Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell from near overbought conditions. Near term likely to see further pullback. Support at 151.55 (200 DMA), 150.60/70 levels (50% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low, 100 DMA). Resistance at 153.30 (61.8% fibo), 155 and 156.50 (76.4% fibo).” “Governor Ueda said that the current political situation in Japan wouldn’t stop him from lifting rates if prices and the economy stay in line with BoJ’s forecast. He also made reference to FX rates more likely to affect prices in Japan than before. He also said that similar wage deals next year as this year would be good but there is not much information on next year’s shunto yet. Overall, his remarks were more hawkish than expected and is likely to have paved the way for BoJ hike in Dec, which remains our house view.”

USD/SGD fell, tracking the pullback in USD as Trump trade unwinds. Pair was last at 1.3171, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD pulls back as Trump trade unwinds “Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI eased from near overbought conditions. Support at 1.31 (38.2% fibo), 1.3040 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.3190 (50% fibo), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low).” “S$NEER strengthened; last at 1.62% above model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD fell, tracking the pullback in USD as Trump trade unwinds. Pair was last at 1.3171, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD pulls back as Trump trade unwinds “Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI eased from near overbought conditions. Support at 1.31 (38.2% fibo), 1.3040 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.3190 (50% fibo), 1.3290 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun high to Oct low).” “S$NEER strengthened; last at 1.62% above model-implied mid.”

The labor market report on Friday had no lasting negative impact on the US dollar. The abysmally low number of new jobs created did not harm the dollar because (a) the unemployment rate did not surprise on the downside and (b) there were enough special effects to explain a downward deviation of the nonfarm payrolls figure, without the US labor market having to be assumed to be in freefall, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. The key driver is the upcoming US election “Depending on which of the announcements made by Donald Trump and his cronies are taken seriously, the US economy could soon look quite different if he wins the election. The key driver is therefore tomorrow's US election. The polls published over the weekend have probably shaken the certainty with which some market participants may have bet on Trump's victory. At least the greenback has weakened significantly with and since the start of trading in Asia.”

The labor market report on Friday had no lasting negative impact on the US dollar. The abysmally low number of new jobs created did not harm the dollar because (a) the unemployment rate did not surprise on the downside and (b) there were enough special effects to explain a downward deviation of the nonfarm payrolls figure, without the US labor market having to be assumed to be in freefall, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. The key driver is the upcoming US election “Depending on which of the announcements made by Donald Trump and his cronies are taken seriously, the US economy could soon look quite different if he wins the election. The key driver is therefore tomorrow's US election. The polls published over the weekend have probably shaken the certainty with which some market participants may have bet on Trump's victory. At least the greenback has weakened significantly with and since the start of trading in Asia.”

Elsewhere in Europe, EUR/NOK tested the 12.0 near-term target, which likely mirrors some deterioration in FX liquidity conditions ahead of the US vote, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Krone’s weakness to keep Norges Bank hawkish “The krone’s weakness will likely keep Norges Bank a hawkish outlier this week, with markets pricing in no risk of a cut at the Thursday meeting.” “Another development in the Nordics is the Riksbank meeting (also on Thursday). We expect a 50bp in line with consensus and market pricing, and see only a severe post-US election SEK selloff potentially tilting the balance to 25bp.”

Elsewhere in Europe, EUR/NOK tested the 12.0 near-term target, which likely mirrors some deterioration in FX liquidity conditions ahead of the US vote, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Krone’s weakness to keep Norges Bank hawkish “The krone’s weakness will likely keep Norges Bank a hawkish outlier this week, with markets pricing in no risk of a cut at the Thursday meeting.” “Another development in the Nordics is the Riksbank meeting (also on Thursday). We expect a 50bp in line with consensus and market pricing, and see only a severe post-US election SEK selloff potentially tilting the balance to 25bp.”

EUR/USD is back up this morning after a rollercoaster ride on Friday as US payrolls were released. This week will all be about the US election with probably very little contribution by the eurozone calendar, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Pre-election volatility is dominating “The US election implications for the euro aren’t only related to the dollar reaction. Markets have scaled back some European Central Bank dovish bets after the latest eurozone growth and inflation numbers, but probably remain open to pricing back in the chance of a 50bp December cut should Trump win this week.”

EUR/USD is back up this morning after a rollercoaster ride on Friday as US payrolls were released. This week will all be about the US election with probably very little contribution by the eurozone calendar, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Pre-election volatility is dominating “The US election implications for the euro aren’t only related to the dollar reaction. Markets have scaled back some European Central Bank dovish bets after the latest eurozone growth and inflation numbers, but probably remain open to pricing back in the chance of a 50bp December cut should Trump win this week.”

The US Dollar (USD) net long positions have increased. EUR net short positions have increased. GBP net long positions have decreased for the fourth week in a row and JPY positions turned net short for the first time in 11 weeks, Rabobank’s FX analysts Jane Foley and Molly Schwartz note. USD turns strongest performing G10 currency in October “USD net long positions have increased, driven by an increase in long positions. USD was the strongest performing G10 currency in October, but its strength ebbed late last week. October NFP registered well-below expectations at only 12k payrolls on Friday, November 1st. This upcoming week is the US presidential election on Tuesday and the FOMC rate cut decision on Thursday. The market is pricing in a 25bp cut.”

The US Dollar (USD) net long positions have increased. EUR net short positions have increased. GBP net long positions have decreased for the fourth week in a row and JPY positions turned net short for the first time in 11 weeks, Rabobank’s FX analysts Jane Foley and Molly Schwartz note. USD turns strongest performing G10 currency in October “USD net long positions have increased, driven by an increase in long positions. USD was the strongest performing G10 currency in October, but its strength ebbed late last week. October NFP registered well-below expectations at only 12k payrolls on Friday, November 1st. This upcoming week is the US presidential election on Tuesday and the FOMC rate cut decision on Thursday. The market is pricing in a 25bp cut.”

Turkey’s current-account balance improved so far, but it is too early to be confident about sustainability. The same holds true for today’s inflation readings, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. Some moderation in Turkish inflation “On Friday, the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce published its monthly cost of living index, which showed cost of living increasing by 3.64% m/m and 59.1% y/y. The media headlines were that cost of living increase had slowed down to 3.64% m/m. But, at this rate of month-on-month increase, annualised inflation still works out to 53%.”

Turkey’s current-account balance improved so far, but it is too early to be confident about sustainability. The same holds true for today’s inflation readings, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. Some moderation in Turkish inflation “On Friday, the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce published its monthly cost of living index, which showed cost of living increasing by 3.64% m/m and 59.1% y/y. The media headlines were that cost of living increase had slowed down to 3.64% m/m. But, at this rate of month-on-month increase, annualised inflation still works out to 53%.”

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to lower its bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75% on November 7, DBS’ Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes. BOE Governor to address monetary policy “CPI inflation fell to 1.7% YoY in September, below the 2% target for the first time since Covid. However, core inflation remained high at 3.2% in September. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey should address monetary policy in light of the controversial Budget announced on October 31.” “While the IMF backed Chancellor Rachel Reeve’s economic plan to boost public investment to drive growth, Moody’s warned that frequent changes to the fiscal rules could erode credibility. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reckoned the additional spending could provide a short-term lift to growth before crowding out business activity and investment and lifting inflation.”

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to lower its bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75% on November 7, DBS’ Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes. BOE Governor to address monetary policy “CPI inflation fell to 1.7% YoY in September, below the 2% target for the first time since Covid. However, core inflation remained high at 3.2% in September. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey should address monetary policy in light of the controversial Budget announced on October 31.” “While the IMF backed Chancellor Rachel Reeve’s economic plan to boost public investment to drive growth, Moody’s warned that frequent changes to the fiscal rules could erode credibility. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reckoned the additional spending could provide a short-term lift to growth before crowding out business activity and investment and lifting inflation.”

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stated on Tuesday that the economic conditions remain challenging and business is doing it tough. The New Zealand central bank also warns of the impact of geopolitical tensions on the economy. Key quotes Economic conditions remain challenging, business is doing it tough. Geopolitical tensions do really matter, key risk for the economy. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr concerned as reduction in interest rates lags real economy. Climate change poses existential threat. Market reaction At the press time, the NZD/USD pair was down 0.06% on the day to trade at 0.5968.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stated on Tuesday that the economic conditions remain challenging and business is doing it tough. The New Zealand central bank also warns of the impact of geopolitical tensions on the economy. Key quotes Economic conditions remain challenging, business is doing it tough. Geopolitical tensions do really matter, key risk for the economy. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr concerned as reduction in interest rates lags real economy. Climate change poses existential threat. Market reaction At the press time, the NZD/USD pair was down 0.06% on the day to trade at 0.5968.