The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index (IMX) fell in February

In February, the Investor Movement Index® (IMXSM) fell to 6.79 from 7.07 in January. The IMX is TD Ameritrade's proprietary, behavior-based index that aggregates Main Street investor positions and activity in order to measure what investors were doing and how they were positioned in the markets.

In comparison to historical averages, the reading for the four-week period ending February 25, 2022 ranks “Moderate.”

“While the month began with strong equity demand, the rapid rise of geopolitical concerns, combined with inflation numbers pushing higher and continued uncertainty on the cadence of Fed rate increases that emerged at the end of the period led many retail investors to sell equities and move into safe haven assets,” according to JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “While this selling pushed the IMX score lower this month, our clients were net buyers in February, taking advantage of the pullback to shift toward more 'traditional' names and add to positions that they felt could weather uncertainty well.”

After a significant drop across all major indices in January, equities began February with some relative strength. The much-anticipated monthly employment report appeared to provide confirmation that the Federal Reserve could resume its interest-rate hike cycle full-steam ahead. While markets initially focused on the Fed's impending policy shift, attention quickly shifted to the escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine. As investors realized that this conflict would escalate far beyond the scale of the 2014 Crimea incursion, markets quickly repriced, with significant movements in commodities across the board as well as energy, metals, and agricultural products. The rise in inflation expectations, combined with the possibility of lower growth expectations, led to markets pricing in the possibility of a stagflationary environment. Following the Fed-induced pullback in January, the S&P 500 entered correction territory (defined as a 10% drop from its recent peak) for the first time since February 2020.

Despite heavy selling near the end of the month, TD Ameritrade customers were net buyers of stocks in February. Among the most popular equity names purchased during this time period were:

• The NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

• Microsoft Company (MSFT)

• Apple Computers, Inc. (AAPL)

• Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

• Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

As commodity prices rose throughout the month, so did selling pressure in a variety of industries. Among the names sold during this time period were:

• The Carnival Corporation (CCL)

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)

• The Boeing Company (BA)

• General Electric Co. (GE)

• The Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

About the IMX

The IMX value is determined by a complex proprietary formula. Each month, TD Ameritrade selects a sample of funded accounts from its client base, which includes all accounts that completed a trade in the previous month. Individual scores are calculated by evaluating the holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample, and the median of those scores represents the monthly IMX.

Visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX for more information on the Investor Movement Index, including historical IMX data dating back to January 2010; to view the full report from February 2022; or to sign up for future IMX news alerts. TD Ameritrade clients can also chart the IMX using the symbol $IMX in the thinkorswim® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.

The inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold by TD Ameritrade. All investments carry some level of risk, including the possibility of losing money. Before investing, please consider all risks and objectives.

A security's, strategy's, or index's past performance is no guarantee of future results or investment success.

When making investment decisions, historical data should not be relied on solely. Before making an independent investment decision, please consult other sources of information and consider your personal financial situation and goals.

The IMX index is not tradable. The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or TD Ameritrade financial performance.

About TD Ameritrade

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