FX Technical Strategy for the Short Term (5 Apr 2022) By CMCMarkets

As we predicted in our previous post on April 1st, the EUR/USD has begun to fall. And reached a high of 1.1000. (printed an intraday low of 1.0959 on 4 April US session).

Key technical indicators are currently pointing to a likely rebound, along with a short-term severe oversold state, as shown by the hourly RSI. Change to a bullish bias over 1.0935, a major short-term critical support level, for a possible comeback towards intermediate resistances of 1.1035 and 1.1075.

However, a breakdown with an hourly close below 1.0935 invalidates the rebound scenario for a continuation of the minor downtrend phase from the 31 March 2022 high to the 7 March 2022 medium-term swing low region of 1.0850.

GBP/USD - Maintain a negative bias below 1.3175 major barrier.

Since our previous analysis on 1 April, the GBP/USD has traded sideways below the 1.3175 excess short-term critical barrier. Maintain bearish bias below 1.3175 short-term key barrier for a possible push down to the next support around 1.3030 in the first stage.

A clearing with an hourly close above 1.3175, on the other hand, results in a squeeze up towards 1.3240, followed by 1.3290.

USD/JPY - 121.30 is the important support level for the rise to continue.

As we said in our previous post on April 1st, 121.30 is the crucial short-term critical support to monitor on the USD/JPY. A break over 123.30 confirms another possible leg of an impulsive up run to retest the 28 March 2022 swing high level of 124.70 before rallying above 125.30/80 big range resistance.

In the first stage, failing to hold above 121.30 with an hourly closing below it reactivates the multi-week corrective slide scenario below 120.55 and 119.90.

As the RBA approaches, the important resistance level for the AUD/USD is 0.7560.

The AUD/USD has risen slowly, and it is presently roughly 20 pips below the 0.7560 significant medium-term critical resistance, as mentioned in our prior analysis on 1 April.

Maintain bearish bias and added 0.7470 (minor range support since 28 March 2022) as a downside trigger level; a break below it strengthens a probable decline below 0.7415 next (the median line of the medium-term ascending channel from 28 January 2022 low) max 0.7365.

However, a 4-hour close above 0.7560 signals the continuation of the medium-term corrective up move sequence towards the following resistance levels at 0.7640 and 0.7690.