In a world where economies ebb and flow like tides, a powerful institution holds the keys to the kingdom of money. Nestled in the heart of the United States, the Federal Reserve looms as a force to be reckoned with, shaping the very fabric of the global financial landscape. But what exactly is the Federal Reserve, and how does it exert its influence over the value of the almighty U.S. dollar and the broader global economy? Let’s explore it in great depth!
It was reported that the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke on Friday and extended the deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government could default on its debt as early as June 5 without increasing the country's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
The USD/JPY pair has slipped vertically near 140.00 in the Asian session. The downside movement in this asset was supported by a heavy sell-off in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Investors have cut long positions in the USD pair.
On Friday, Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, said that the market should set currency exchange rates according to economic fundamentals. He made this statement after the Yen fell to its lowest level in six months against the dollar.
The Euro started a fresh decline from well above 1.0800 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD traded below 1.0800 and 1.0780 to move into a bearish zone.
Risk profile improves on Monday as US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy agree on a compromised deal to avoid the US default. Even so, the agreement needs to pass through the House and the Senate to be the law, which in turn appears to challenge the risk-on mood amid holidays in multiple markets including the US.
Asian markets ended mixed, but mostly higher as investors across the region reacted to the news that President Biden and U.S. lawmakers struck a tentative deal to raise the debt ceiling in the U.S. The deal will be voted on later this week and if passed will allow the U.S. government to avoid a potentially catastrophic financial scenario.
Spot gold shocked lower during the Asian session on Tuesday (May 30), once hitting a new low of more than two months to $1,932.52 per ounce. Optimism over the U.S. debt ceiling deal and reduced market bets on the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate hikes in June weakened gold's appeal.
On Monday, spot gold oscillated in a range of less than $10 due to low holiday liquidity and once approached the $1,950 mark during the day before finally closing down 0.01% at $1,943.6 per ounce. Spot silver also traded sideways, eventually closing down 0.64% at $23.14 per ounce.
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Markets turn dicey as traders await crucial events scheduled for late Friday and Sunday. The consolidation mode allows the US Dollar bulls to take a breather at a multi-day high, which in turn favors the Gold price to lick its wounds. On the same line, other commodities like crude oil and silver, join the Antipodeans to portray a corrective bounce.
EUR/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.0759 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.0903 resistance holds.
FX: USD traded to a two-month high. A lack of progress in talks over raising the US debt limit hurt investors’ appetite for risk taking. The 2-year yield printed a high last seen in March at 4.40% before closing near its low at 4.32%. It looks like a bearish “shooting star” candle printed on the day with yields sinking today. The 10-year yield hit a two-month high at 3.76% but settled on its low at 3.69%.
As gold prices continue to increase, investors wonder if they should boost their investment in the yellow metal in 2023. The pandemic and geopolitical tensions have caused economic uncertainty, leading to a surge in gold prices. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has even joined the gold-buying trend, purchasing 10 tonnes of gold in March 2023.
Gold price attempts a bounce as US Dollar pulls back alongside US Treasury bond yields. The price of the Gold is replicating the moves seen in Wednesday’s Asian trading, making headways for a minor recovery toward $2,000 early Thursday. The retreat in the United States Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields supports Gold price.
On Wednesday House Speaker Kevin McCarthy planned to send Republican negotiators to the White House to finish out debt limit talks, but warned that the two sides are “still far apart” as they try to reach a budget deal with President Joe Biden. This causes US equities traded lower yesterday because the negotiations over the debt ceiling continued to create uncertainty.
FOMC minutes turned out to be a non-event. Document largely echoed FOMC statement and Powell's presser. However, it included line that Fed staff is still projecting a mild recession as likely near the end of the year
FOMC minutes were released at 7:00 pm BST today. Document related to May 2-3, 2023 meeting during which Fed strongly hinted that it may pause its rate hike cycle. Minutes have mostly echoed FOMC statement and Powell's comments during press conference and did not include any major surprises.
Spot gold oscillated narrowly during the Asian session on Monday (May 29) and is currently trading near $1,946.45 per ounce.
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