MHMarkets ：API crude oil inventories fell more than expected, concerned about the Fed's interest rate decision

Fundamentals:

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and policy statement. Currently, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, raising the federal funds rate to the target range of 2.25% to 2.50%. The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.2% and raised its global inflation forecast to 8.3%. The IMF believes that the risk of a recession is particularly acute in 2023, with growth in the U.S. and Europe falling to near-zero levels due to rising inflation and tighter financial conditions. In addition, the group's chief economist warned that the world “may soon be teetering on the brink of recession.”

The United States reported that API crude oil inventories fell by 4.037 million barrels last week, a decrease that exceeded market expectations. The White House said that in order to support supply and stabilize oil prices, an additional 20 million barrels of oil will be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and 1 million barrels per day will be released to the market. The spread between WTI and Brent on Tuesday widened to its widest since April 2020, at nearly $10 a barrel.

Technical side:

Dow: The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively, the Dow closed down 0.71%, and the Nasdaq closed down 1.87%. Retail stocks and large technology stocks dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the top is concerned about the support pressure near 33240.

U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar index rose all the way, breaking through the 107 mark, and finally closed up 0.695% at 107.24; the 10-year U.S. bond yield bottomed out and rebounded, finally closing at 2.803%. The top of the dollar fell, and the bulls were cautious, focusing on the target position of 105.8 below.

Gold: On Tuesday, the volatility of spot gold narrowed, waiting for the outcome of the Fed's decision on interest rates, and finally closed down 0.07% at $1,717.66 per ounce; gold fluctuated at a low level, with the lower level supporting the 1700 position, and the top focusing on the 1744 target position.

Crude oil: In terms of crude oil, the difference between the two oil prices was nearly 10 US dollars, the largest level since April 2020. WTI crude oil once approached 99 US dollars, then fell above 95 US dollars, and finally closed down 0.65% at 97.67 US dollars / barrel; Bren Crude oil settled down 0.34% at $104.53 a barrel. Crude oil fluctuated, and the top was concerned about the target position near 100.

(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the foreign exchange market is risky, and investment should be cautious)