MHMarkets:The US dollar fell in response to the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, and US crude oil exports hit a record high and oil prices rose 3%

Fundamentals:

On July 27, data showed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in June as exports jumped, while orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, seen as a barometer of business spending plans, rose 0.5% last month, potentially easing the impact on the economy. some concerns. The U.S. dollar index closed down 0.69 percent on Wednesday at 106.48.

At 2:00 on July 28, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points as widely expected, and comments from Fed Chairman Powell fueled hopes for a slower rate hike path. The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the second time in a row in an attempt to control inflation. The Fed also noted that while the labor market remains strong, other economic indicators have softened.

On the disk: The dollar initially moved higher after the Fed statement, but quickly reversed course and weakened further along with Treasury yields, while U.S. stocks rebounded as Fed Chairman Powells post-policy statement comments were seen as Dove.

Overall, the dovish speech of Fed Chairman Powell's press conference will dominate the market in the short term, and the US dollar index will face further downside risks.

The reduction of crude oil inventories in the United States and the reduction of natural gas exports from Russia to Europe support oil prices to rise, and oil prices may return to the $100/barrel mark; however, Irans attitude towards the Iran nuclear talks has eased, and the global new crown epidemic has spread, superimposed on the new cases of monkeypox around the world. The increasing situation will still drag down the oil market.

However, investors are reminded that they also need to pay attention to the performance of European and American stock markets. In particular, the market's expectations for a recession in the United States have cooled down, which may drag down the performance of precious metals. Tonight's second-quarter GDP data and changes in the number of jobless claims in the United States need to be Focus.

Technical side:

U. S. index:The three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively, the Dow closed up 1.37%, and the Nasdaq closed up 4.06%. Big tech stocks rallied across the board. Apple rose 3.42%, Amazon rose 5.37%, Netflix rose 6%, Google rose 7.66%, Facebook rose 6.55%, and Microsoft rose 6.69%.Tightening monetary policy, namely raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet, is the biggest negative for the stock index, and for the US stock market, which has risen for 14 consecutive years, the technical adjustment is in line with expectations. The Nasdaq's sharp sell-off on Friday showed that the rhythm of accelerating declines has begun.Since the last subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the current global epidemic, the U.S. economy's response to inflation has basically been a continuous monetary easing policy. The rise of the stock index driven by this capital will eventually become unsustainable in the face of high inflation, and then the negative interest rate hike and tightening, it is very reasonable to turn down at the high point of 16800!As for the current Nasdaq index, I don't think it's an impulsive decision. The current price is running at a low level. After a continuous decline, the market is basically oversold, and there is a demand for rebound at any time. Just like the trend of precious metals, we must be patient and wait for the market to respond. Our better chance!Therefore, for the operation of the Nasdaq index, we will participate in the idea of with the price rebounding to the 12800 area before the price breaks through 13050!

USD:The US dollar index rose and fell, falling below the 107 mark, and finally closed down 0.709% at 106.48; the 10-year US bond yield failed to hold 2.8% and finally closed at 2.785%.The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points, as widely expected, and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stoked hopes of a slower rate hike path. Due to the optimism about economic recovery, it showed a less hawkish attitude, which also conveyed to the market the expectation of whether the Fed's follow-up monetary policy will continue to be tightened. The U.S. dollar has fallen from a lofty height. You must know that the reason for the dollar's surge before this was largely because the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 100 basis points.After the rivers and lakes published by Fed Powell now, the market expects that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 or 25 basis points in line with the status quo. At the same time, with the fall in global inflation in the second half of the year, the economic situation eased. As well as the demand for a soft landing of the economies of various countries, it is necessary to start taking into account the rise and recovery of the stock market.Since the US dollar index was weak and fell again at the important position of 110, it is expected to backtest the 104 position of the previous support and resistance conversion position. Therefore, focus on the impact of fundamentals on the trend of the dollar.Focus on resistance: 108.5 to 110 area Focus on support: 104 to 105 area

gold:On Wednesday, spot gold continued its upward momentum, once hitting the 1740 mark, and finally closed up 1.02% at $1734.57 per ounce; spot silver rose sharply, standing at the $19 mark, and finally closed up 2.65% at $19.09 per ounce.As the time window for the Fed to raise interest rates closes, there is a two-month window. The gold price has run to the 1738 to 1740 area, and the construction of the “head and shoulders bottom” pattern has been completed. Whether it is the market's rise in interest rate hike expectations before July 27, or after the interest rate hike as expected by the market on July 27, At present, it has been unable to change the rebounding market trend of bottoming out.According to the “2B rule” of the exchange of support and resistance, the price of gold will have a proportional upward space after it breaks through the 1740 neckline. That is, the long target can locate the 1814 area. Therefore, we just need to wait for the right opportunity to participate in the continued rebound of the market.The current support position has moved up, we only need to pay attention to resistance: 1752-1755, 1775; support: 1725, 1733

Crude oil:In terms of crude oil, the two crude oils fluctuated violently during the session. WTI crude oil stood at US$98 and finally closed up 2.75% at US$98.12 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.48% at US$107.12 per barrel.The price of crude oil has fallen from a high of 123, and the daily line has formed a “double top” structure. The properties of bulk commodities determine the law of value discovery. Short-term news will affect the magnitude and intensity of fluctuations, but will not change the trend. Currently, the United States dominates The economic sanctions on Russia and the expected impact of OPEC's demand on the crude oil market will be phased. The main factor in the global supply and demand imbalance will determine that crude oil prices will not continue to be high. What we need to do is not to blindly bullish the market, the current price shows that the high point is moving down, and the resistance is also moving down. The short-term market is still dominated by the bear market. It is reasonable to target support at 85 to 92 for now.

(The above analysis only represents the analyst's opinion and does not provide any investment advice, and does not assume any responsibility for any loss or damage caused by any direct or indirect transaction risks, losses or gains related to any personal investment.)