Mohicans markets：Pay Attention to Key Range of Gold Long and Short Competition for Oil Prices is Fierce

Key Dada

Market Overview

Fundamentals Overview

On Thursday August 19, spot gold moved slightly lower below the pivot point of 1761.44 during the Asian session. It is now running not far from the 1750 handle with primary support at 1748.82. Spot silver is trending similarly with primary support at 18.89. WTI crude oil rebounded after falling below the long-short pivot point at 89.88 and is approaching that level again. The dollar index held steady above the 107 handle and fell into a narrow range after failing to challenge the first resistance at 107.74.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully.The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 18, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1782 Strong positive force

1771-1775 Intensive resistance area

1762 Intraday significant resistance

1757 Asian and European resistance

1753-1754 Asian and European support

1745 Intraday support

1740 Previous downtrend line, intermediate support

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, Gold broke down continuously, approaching the medium-term support at 1740, with positions increasing by only 0.1%. It implies that the current long sentiment in gold is very weak and needs to be guarded against false breakouts near resistance before pulling back. Options bets are now relatively uniform, with calls concentrating on bets above the current price and puts mainly on reduced positions. It may be a sign that institutions are starting to hedge against the uncertainty of the Jackson Hole annual meeting. Locked range trading in advance first, the medium-term can focus on two ranges of 1735-1770 and 1740-1782.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 19h. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO ·Technical Level · Spot Silver   

20 Bullish increase, bearish decrease. Long target 

19.75-19.8 Bullish decrease, bearish increase. Resistance range 

19.5 Bullish increase, bearish decrease. Long-short contention point 

19.25 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease. Weak support (test-in-Process) 

19.15 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly reduce but with stock. Short target 

19 Bullish increase, bearish increase, short target

Technical Analysis

On Thursday evening, silver failed to break through the resistance range after a slight upward movement, being under pressure below 19.5. From the perspective of options changes, bearish options showed obvious signs of increasing holdings. The company's main focus is on the development of a new product that will be available to the market. And the 19.75-19.8 area long positions decreased, weakening silver's upward momentum. However, there are still bulls laying out for a medium-term move, betting on a 20-plus target. For now, silver is testing 19.25-19.3, where there is a large stock of bearish options but also some longs providing weak support. A break below would see the next short targets at 19.15 and 19. There are also more short bets at 18.75. Looking at the range of silver's volatility, it is difficult to reach this point intraday, but one still needs to be alert to the risk of further downside.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 19th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

95 Bullish reduction, bearish unchanged, the second target of the bulls, the upward momentum slows down

92 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish increase, first rebound target

91 Bullish increase, bearish increase, first resistance

89-89.5 bullish increase, bearish increase, first support

87.5 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, key support

86-86.5 Bullish increase, bearish increase, support level

85 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, previous short target

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, after the US market broke through the key 89 level, it reached the first strong positive force of 91. The long and short sides of the options competed fiercely in the 89-91 range. During the day, pay attention to the fluctuations in the 86-91 range,among which the 89 support is more important, or wait further direction selection.

In terms of options, 92 has added a lot of call options. If the intraday rally continues, this is still the first rebound target. Stabilization has the opportunity to move the volatility range up to the 92-95 range.

However, there are many call options leaving the early mid-line resistance at 95, which is expected to weaken the upward momentum. Below the current price, since the active funds of options are mainly concentrated around 89, once the price falls below 89, the bullish kinetic energy will be weakened, that is, the probability of breaking through 92 will be reduced.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 19:00 on August 19. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR · Technical Level · EURUSD

1.0250 bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target 

1.02 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance 

1.0150 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance 

1.01 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but huge stock, resistance

1.0050 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target 

1.00 Bullish decrease, bearish increase, bear target, support at 

0.9800-0.9950 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bearish target zone

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the euro against the dollar broke down, falling below the lower edge of the recent shock range of 1.0150, and further below the 1.01 level. After the opening today, it continued to be under pressure below 1.01. Judging from the new options changes, the increase in call options is mainly concentrated above 1.01. The EUR/USD is only expected to ease its downward momentum if it breaks through 1.01, but it faces the 1.0150 resistance level and the 1.02 strong resistance level. On the other hand, although put options at 1.01 are reduced by 22 lots, there is a huge stock here, which is expected to suppress the rebound in Europe and the United States. Below this level, the bears will focus on 1.0050, and the support level will be 1.0025. If it breaks the parity level again, the short target is expected to be 0.98-0.9950. The bears in this range are divided and are expected to ease the decline.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 19th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.2050 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease, resistance level 

1.20 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease, resistance level 

1.1950 Bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged, but the two stocks are outstanding and equal, resistance level 

1.1920 Bullish increase, bearish increase, key level

1.19 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduction but larger stock, bear target, support level

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD fell below the 1.20 support level on Thursday, extending losses after the opening bell today, testing the 1.19 bearish target.

Judging from the new option changes, the 1.19 bearish target position put options decreased by 227 lots, which is expected to be a profit for the bears to leave the market. You can pay attention to the support here.The newly added call options at 1.1920 indicate that when the GBPUSD fell to around 1.1901.1920, not only did shorts leave the market with profit, but also some long funds entered the market. During the day, you can focus on the support and defense of this range, or it is expected to stabilize and rebound.On the other hand, considering that there is no call option entry above, it is expected that even if the pound and the United States can stabilize, the momentum of the sharp rebound will be limited, and we will pay attention to the performance of the 1.20 resistance level.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 19th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.72 call options + 569 lots, put options unchanged, medium-term long target 

0.71 call options + 475 lots, put options unchanged, long second target 

0.705 call options-2 lots, put options-2 lots, short-term resistance 

0.7 call options-6 lots, Puts - 445 lots, long target, weakening resistance

0.69 call options - 6 lots, put options - 1 lot, support level 

0.685 call options unchanged, put options - 133 lots, support level, downside momentum weakened 

0.68 call options unchanged, put options - 80 lots but the stock is large, short target

Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar's rally was capped at 0.695 on Thursday, and then fell back to the 0.69 bearish target. The current downside momentum has weakened compared to yesterday. From the perspective of options changes, bullish sentiment prevails, and bears leave the market in a wide range. The 0.7 put options are reduced, the resistance is weakened, the bulls have the upper hand, and there are more long bets above. If the breakthrough is successful, it may expand the upward momentum. There are more call options betting in the 0.71-0.72 range, of which 0.71 and 0.72 are both long targets.Below 0.69 is the early short target, if the Australian dollar falls, it may continue to decline. But put options with bear targets below 0.685 and 0.68 have been out for the second day in a row, and downside momentum is fading. The volatility of the Australian dollar may be further narrowed, the resistance will weaken when the bears leave the market, and the call options will bet up, and the bulls should be alert to counterattack.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 19th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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