Mohicans markets：Insufficient Short-term Support For Gold Crude Oil Bears Bet on a Pullback

Key Data

Fundamentals Overview

Spot gold in the Asian session approached the 1750 mark, but failed to break above it and is now challenging the first resistance at 1748.86 On Wednesday August 24. Spot silver is running above the 19 mark, and the first upward target is 19.29.WTI crude oil held steady above the pivot point 93 and broke the 94 mark. If it breaks through 95.53, it is expected to further open up the upside.The U.S. dollar index erased most of its intraday gains and tested the pivot point at 108.62.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 24, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1797 Bullish decrease but large stock, bearish decrease, long target and resistance

1777-1787 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish decrease but stock is large, long target

1757-1767 Bullish decrease but large stock, bearish decrease, resistance level

1727-1737 Bullish decrease but large stock, bearish decrease but stock is large, and the support is weakened

1717 bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, bear target

1687-1692 bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, support level

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, the U.S. PMI data went bad, which was good for gold in the short term. However, it quickly fell back at 11 o‘clock in the evening. In addition, the open interest was only slightly, and the medium and long-term funds did not have a strong willingness to enter the market. Yesterday’s rise may only be a short-term capital operation. In addition, another factor that is easily overlooked is that yesterday, because OPEC+ released information that it may tighten supply, energy commodities rose, combined with the continued drought in Europe and tight water transportation, energy prices continued to rise, and there will be concerns about insufficient energy supply in winter. This rise in energy prices, then, may give the market a link to the Fed's follow-up monetary policy. It can be seen that gold has attracted some safe-haven funds. Specifically, put options mainly bet on the short target of 1717, and although the 1727-1737 range is still support, the strength may weaken. If the resistance of 1749 and 1754 fails to stand firm again, then the short-term push up yesterday is likely to retreat again today, and the 1740-1739 support has become the key support for the day.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 24th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

19.75 Bullish reduction, bearish unchanged, resistance level

19.45-19.5 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, long target and resistance

19.25-19.35 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target

18.9-19 Bullish increase, bearish increase, support for the long-short game

18.75 Bullish unchanged,bearish reduced, support level

18.5 Bullish reduced slightly,bearish sharply reduced, support level

Technical Analysis

Silver and gold rose in sync on Tuesday, and also fell back after 11 pm, with the 19.3 resistance still in effect. Although it is theoretically possible to test the resistance again, the decline in silver holdings is more severe than that of gold, and the liquidation of funds may be difficult to effectively push the price of silver up. Be careful that the weakness of gold drags down silver.

The sentiment of options is slightly more optimistic than gold, 18.9-19, 18.75 and 18.5 may be support, and silver prices may appear more volatile before the short target of 18.45 is achieved. However, if there is a lack of signals for funds to enter the market, the trend of silver in the next few days is still not optimistic.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 24th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE ·Technical Level · US Crude Oil

96-96.5 Intraday resistance

94-95 Asian-European resistance

93 Asia and Europe support

91.8 Intraday support

91 Long and short boundary

90 Previous downtrend line support

88-89 Midline Support

86-86.4 Medium and long-term support

Technical Analysis

There is no order flow data due to the inconsistency between the delivery and the main continuous quotation. Yesterday, crude oil broke through the resistance strongly and hit the long target of 94. Judging from the changes in options, the bulls and the bears are fighting fiercely near the current price, and the bears below have begun to bet on a pullback. After the sharp rise, the volatility of oil prices has narrowed. The stock advantage of the 93 long positions below is expected to bring some support to oil prices, but short bets have also increased simultaneously, and we need to be alert to the risk of breaking down. 91-91.5 is the first bearish target range. If oil prices continue to decline, or return to the 90 pre-trend line. There are many call options entering the market at 93.5-94 near the current price, which may give some support to oil prices, and the bulls continue to bet on 95. However, both 97 and 100 above are bulls leaving the market, and the short-term kinetic energy is weakened. Above 100, many bulls have entered the market one after another, and there are a large number of call option bets at 105, which is expected to set up a mid-term upward trend. On the whole, intensive long and short bets near the current price will restrain the sharp fluctuations in oil prices, and we need to be alert to the risk of correction in the short term.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 24th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1.1 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease but with stock, resistance level

1.0025-1.0075 Bullish increase, bearish increase, long and short contention, resistance area

1.00 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease but short dominant, resistance

0.9975 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance

0.99 Bullish increasing, bearish sharply decrease, downside pressure easing

0.98 Bullish unchanged , bearish sharply reduce, downside pressure easing

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, EURUSD tested the short target of 0.99 suggested yesterday before the European session, and then tested the key level of 1.00 in the US session due to the weakness of USD. However, it failed to stabilize and is still oscillating below parity.

From the perspective of option changes, overnight Europe and the US retested 1.00 driven by data, making 1.0025-1.0075 a long-short focus again. Bearish and bullish at the same time to increase bets, which is expected that it is difficult for Europe and the United States to smooth the upside even if it once again breaks through 1.00. The above-mentioned range in the signal of resistance also needs to be paid attention to.

On the other hand, below parity, 0.99-0.9975 has some bullish options entry. And bearish bets are divergent, especially yesterday's key bets on 0.99 and 0.98 there are a large number of bearish options left, which is expected in the short term Europe and the United States again the possibility of falling below 0.99 reduced.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 24. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.1950-1.1970 Bullish increase, bearish slightly increase, long target and contested area

1.19 Bullish slightly increase, bearish slightly decrease but stock is large, resistance level

1.1850-1.1870 Bullish increase, bearish increase, key resistance area

1.18-1.182 Bullish increase, bearish increase, key support area

1.1750 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly reduce, support area

1.17 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increase, short target

1.165 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, GBPUSD briefly broke below 1.1750 but did not touch the short target at 1.17. In the U.S. session, it tested 1.180 upwards for a while amid a weaker dollar before falling back in late trading. It is still trading above 1.18.

From the perspective of options changes, bulls are betting on the GBPUSD to the upside, but 1.1850 is expected to constitute a key resistance level for further rally. This is where bullish and bearish bets are increasing in tandem, and is expected to constitute a long-short contention level. If we can break this level, there is a possibility of further upside to the 1.19-1.1920 range. However, the large stock of bearish options at 1.19 is expected to continue to pose strong resistance, with further breakout targeting 1.1950-1.1970. On the other hand, and the defense of the 1.18-1.182 support area. If broken there may be further downside risk, the lower edge of the overnight oscillation range under 1.1750 is expected to constitute weak support, with short targets at 1.17 and 1.165 respectively.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 24. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.70 Bullish increase and stock is large, bearish unchanged, long target and resistance

0.695 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increase with large stocks, first resistance

0.69 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly reduce with large stocks, key support

0.685 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease, downside target

0.68 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, short second target

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar mainly followed the rhythm of the US dollar and tested the first resistance at 0.695 due to the weakness of the US dollar. It is currently testing the key support at 0.69. 0.69 stock of bearish options is prominent and is the key intraday support, and price stabilization above this is expected before another test of 0.695. Once the Australian dollar breaks through 0.695, short momentum will be significantly weakened and may return to 0.7. This is a near-term long target. If the price falls below 0.69 again, it will depress the long momentum. The first target below is 0.685, and the second target for shorts is 0.68.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 24. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.