Mohicans markets：Markets Await Next Week’s Meeting

Key Dada 

Fundamentals Overview

On Friday, September 16, spot gold in the Asian session was in the key position of 1672.10 below the narrow oscillation, and the support in short-term was weak; spot silver blocked back near the 19.2, below the first support 18.88; WTI crude oil recovered all the gains in the session, down to test the first support 84.72; dollar index short pull up to 110 mark above, and the next upside target to see 110.55. 

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on September 16, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

CME Group options layout changes (October futures prices)：

1720-1725 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, rebound target area

1700 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease sharply, rebound target

1680-1685 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase sharply, strong resistance area

1670 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance

1650 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase sharply, short target

1640 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase sharply, short target

1620-1625 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase sharply, short target

Order flow key point markers (spot prices)：

1692 short defensive level, breakout stabilization will weaken the short confidence

1681 start point of volume,  strong resistance during the day

1671 first resistance level, failing to break this level indicates that the gold price is still very weak

1661 first  support level during the day

1658  short term target during the day

Technical Analysis

Gold plunged again on Thursday evening, breaking below the annual support line and reaching a low of 1660 target level. However, the volume in the U.S. market overnight was less than Tuesday's wave of decline, and with the weekly close today, On Friday, it is not recommended to be too aggressive in chasing shorts. If it breaks below last night's low again, the next target looks to 1643.

From the options changes, 1672 would constitute the first resistance level, resonating with the resistance from the order flow analysis. A break of this level would focus on the possibility of a gold price rally to 1682-1687, which is expected to be a strong resistance. Breakthrough is expected to break the short-led situation during the day, looking up to 1700.

On the other hand, if the gold price below 1662, we will look down to 1652 level, and short momentum is expected to get a step to strengthen, below the options bet target mainly 1642, 1622, or even 1602. The new huge amount of bearish options is expected for the aggressive short advance layout.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 16. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical level · Spot silver

CME Group options layout changes (October futures prices)：

19.75 Bullish decrease, bearish slightly increase, resistance

19.50 Bullish increase, bearish slightly increase, resistance

19.25 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, key resistance

18.95-19 Bullish period slightly decrease, bearish increase, the break is concerned about the downward momentum to increase

18.75 Bullish increase, bearish equally increase, support

18.50-18.55 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, short target

Order flow key point markers (spot prices)：

19.9-20 CPI data after the release of the starting point, strong resistance area

19.67 Strong resistance

19.45 Volume down starting point, strong intraday resistance

19.32 Intraday secondary resistance

19.2 First intraday resistance, watch for continued downside risk at this level

18.3-18.5 Key support area (long cost area)

17.85 Extreme support

Technical Analysis

After gold fell below key support on Thursday, silver happened to step back up to 19.55 resistance, where it quickly followed down into the upper edge of the 18.9-19.2 key support area. This morning opened to make up for the fall to the lower edge of the range, and now temporarily hold the key support area. However, if it cannot stabilize above 19.2, silver still has the risk of testing downward from the options change. 19.25  is also the key level for the main contention between long and short, resonating with the order flow important point and breaking the level up to 1945.-19.50.

On the other hand, the primary short target below 19.20 is 18.95-19, and a break below that is expected to add to the downside momentum. Short targets are further seen at 418.50-18.55, with weak support expected at 18.75 during the period.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 16. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

CME Group options layout changes (October futures prices)：

90 Call options+726 lots, put options+21 lots, long target

87-87.5 Call options -4 lots, put  options+409 lots, resistance

85 Call options+63 lots, put options+87 lots, support, break alert to expand downward momentum

82.5 Call options +11 lots, put options+69 lots, support

81 Call options +2 lots, put options+473 lots, short target

80 Call options-2 lots, put options+824 lots, short target

Order flow key point markers (spot prices)：

88 strong resistance

86.4-86.8 the U.S. session release down starting point, strong resistance during the day

85.4-85.9 first resistance area, the level of pressure still need to be alert to downside risk

84.25 First support during the day, break will look down near 82

82.13-82.46 Key support area (long cost area)

Technical Analysis

Demand expectations adjusted coupled with the dollar suppression, crude oil lost 88 yesterday and fell back to near 85 to complete the short target. The current short inventory near the current price is still large, but there is no significant change in positions, long and short bets to both ends of the concentration, the market divergence on future trend expectations. 

The short and long stocks around 87-87.5 are comparable, but there are significant bets on the short side, posing resistance to oil prices in the short term. 90 has significant new bullish option bets, constituting a long target. 

On the other hand, intraday attention needs to be paid to whether crude oil can stabilize at 85 support, where the short side has a stock advantage and a break could intensify downside momentum, with the first support level at 92.5. If it continues to move lower, see 81 and 80 short targets.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 16. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR · Technical level · EUR/USD

CME Group options layout changes:

1.0175 Bullish increase, bearish increase, bulls target and strong resistance

1.01 Bullish increase slightly and the stock is large, bearish remains unchanged, the key resistance

1.005 Bullish increase, bearish slightly increased and large stock, first resistance

1.00 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease greatly but the stock is large, the bulls and the bears are fighting for positions

0.995 Bullish unchanged, bearish increased sharply, first support

0.99 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, key support

0.985-0.9875 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increased and the stock is large, the short target in the early stage

Technical Analysis

Europe and the United States maintained a narrow range on Thursday, continuing to digest the decline after the announcement of CP1. The market is waiting for more fundamental signals. In terms of options, the bearish sentiment is still not small, and some put options at the 1.0 integer mark have left the market, becoming a long-short short-term competition. The price remains below 1.0, and the initiative will return to bears. The first support is at 0.995. There are a lot of put options at 0.99. The support is more critical. If it falls below, it is expected to test the previous short target of 0.985-0.9875 again.

On the contrary, if the price successfully returns to above 1.0, there may be some rebound momentum, but the call option is not willing to bet, and the room for a sharp rebound before the US market may be limited. 1.005, 1.01 have certain resistance, and 1.0175 has become the stage long target.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 16. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

CME Group options layout changes:

1.16 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, strong resistance

1.155 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increased and the stock is large, the second resistance

1.15-1.152 Bullish increase, bearish increase, key resistance area

1.145 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increased and the stock is large, the first support

1.14-1.142 Bullish slightly increased, bearish slightly increased, the first target and support of the bears

1.135 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly reduced, support level

1.13 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, medium line bearish target

Technical Analysis

The pound and dollar fluctuated and fell on Thursday, hovering near the low level in September. The overall bet on options was not strong, and funds were mainly scrambled around 1.15.

In terms of options, there is no obvious departure from the short bet below 1.15, and we still need to be alert to the downward action. The first support below is 1.145, and the break below may look at the first short target of 1.14-1.142. If it falls here, the pound may enter a new low range of 1.13-1.14 for the year. 1.13 is the short target of the midline of the option, and 1.135 has certain support during the period.

Conversely, if the GBPUSD returns to the top of 1.15-1.152, it is expected to ease the short-term weak trend. In view of the cautious long bets, the rebound can only focus on 1.155 and 1.16 for the time being. Among them, 1.16 is a long target for a short-term rebound.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 16. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical level · AUD/USD

CME Group options layout changes:

0.685 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease slightly, bulls target and bulls and bears compete for points

0.68 Bullish sharp increase, bearish unchanged, bulls target

0.675 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, strong resistance and long-short dividing point

0.67 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, downtrend energy expands

Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has been less volatile recently, and the options market has made a big bet at the point near the current price. The market is obviously above 0.675 and there are 1220 put options inflow, which has formed a strong pressure on the Australian dollar. But it is also the demarcation point between long and short. Only if there is a smooth breakthrough can the upward momentum be further expanded. 0.68 is the first bull target, but there are also big bets on put options, and it is difficult to see a big rally in the short term. 0.685 is a secondary long target and a point of competition between long and short

In the day, Australia and the United States also need to pay attention to the defense below 0.67, the bulls support is weak below 0.67, and the action can expand under the vigilance of breaking the position.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 16. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.