Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

October 19, 2022 - Fundamentals Reminder

☆ At 14:00, the UK announced the monthly rate of CPI and RPI in September.

☆ At 17:00, the euro area announced the final annual rate and monthly rate of CPI in September.

☆ At 22:30, the US announced EIA crude oil inventory for the week of October 14.

☆ At 1 am the next day, the Federal Reserve Kashkari delivered a speech.

☆ At 2:00 in the morning of the next day, the Federal Reserve announced the economic situation in brown paper.

☆ The White House of the United States will issue a statement on reducing gasoline prices.

Market overview

——Source: jin10&Bloomberg

On Tuesday, October 18, the dollar index fell 112 intraday, closing down 0.054% at 112.05. The yen hit another 32 year low. The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered at 4%.

Spot gold surged to 1660.85 at the highest level and fell to 1645.30 at the lowest level, and finally ended up 0.11% at 1651.68 US dollars/ounce; Spot silver failed to recover from the 19 mark and closed 0.3% higher at US $18.74/oz.

The daily decline of WTI crude oil once expanded to 4%. Brent crude oil lost $89/barrel, and the news that the United States will release strategic crude oil reserves put pressure on oil prices. As of the closing, WTI crude oil closed 2.37% lower at 84.02 USD/barrel;

Brent crude oil closed 1.47% lower at USD 91.11/barrel. US natural gas futures continued their decline, extending the intraday decline to 5%. European natural gas futures fell 16% in the session. European natural gas prices fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, as the weather was warmer than usual and natural gas inventories were high, which eased concerns about winter supply shortages.

US stocks opened higher and closed higher after intraday diving. The Dow closed 1.12% higher, the Nasdaq 0.9% higher, and the S&P 500 1.14% higher. Cruise stocks and aviation stocks were among the top gainers, while education stocks and chip stocks declined. Pinduoduo closed up about 5%, TAL closed down about 5%, and TSMC closed down about 2%.

European stocks collectively gained, and Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.92%; The FTSE 100 index closed 0.24%; France's CAC40 index rose 0.44%; Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed 0.64% higher; Spain's IBEX35 index closed 0.67% higher; Italy's FTSE MIB closed 0.93% higher.

Market Focus

——Source: jin10 & Bloomberg

1、According to people familiar with the matter, the Biden administration is moving to release another 10 million to 15 million barrels of oil from the national emergency reserve to balance the market and prevent gasoline prices from climbing further. The U.S. government is still considering restricting fuel exports.

2、The U.S. Treasury Department reported that Japan, the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, reduced its holdings of U.S. debt by $34.5 billion in August, with the total size falling to $1.2 trillion, which was the lowest level since 2019.

3、The Federal Reserve Bostic: inflation is too high and must be brought under control.

4、The Bank of England confirmed that it will conduct the first Treasury bond sale operation on November 1.

5、OPEC Secretary General: energy demand will increase sharply by 23% from 285.7 million barrels per day in 2021 to 351 million barrels per day in 2045.

6、Spain issued a warning on the oversupply of natural gas.

7、The European Commission has proposed a package of emergency energy measures. The EU proposed to start joint purchase of natural gas rules among EU countries, requiring countries to give the European Commission the authority to propose a temporary “amendment mechanism” to set a maximum price for the Dutch TTF gas deal.

8、The Bank of Japan and the Financial Services Agency of Japan held the 17th Financial Stability Cooperation Council meeting on Tuesday, and the dollar plunged a hundred points against the yen in the short term.

9、The European Central Bank management committee Villeroy: the European Central Bank will slow down interest rate hikes after the deposit rate reaches 2%.

10、London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) survey: gold prices are expected to rise to $ 1830.50 per ounce in 2023.

11、The World Gold Council said India's gold sales during the festive season at the end of the year may not be so dazzling.

12、The U.S. State Department: the United States believes that the conflict in Ukraine will end at the negotiating table.

13、Iranian sources said that Iran has committed to provide Russia with more drones and missiles.

14、Fitch expects the U.S. economy to enter a true recession in the second quarter of 2023, but relatively mild by historical standards, and the strength of the U.S. consumer will ease the severity.

Institutional Perspective

——MHMarkets ETA

1. Mitsubishi UFJ bullish on the dollar

2. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: little technical support for GBPUSD until 1.0705

3. National Australia Bank: still cautious about the pound trend

4. Mitsubishi UFJ: the pound may be further sell-off

5. Credit Agricole insists on bearish pound