Mohicans markets：MHM Today’s News

November 22, 2022-Fundamental Reminder

☆ 15:00 Australian Fed President Lowe delivers a speech.

☆ 17:00 Eurozone releases seasonally adjusted current account for September.

☆ 21:30 Canada publishes monthly rate of retail sales for September.

☆ 23:00 The U.S. releases the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for November.

☆ The following day 03:15 Fed George delivers a speech.

☆ The following day 05:30 U.S. releases API crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov. 18.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Monday, November 21, the dollar index rose 1% during the day and stood at the 108 mark, but failed to hold above the mark, which finally closed up 0.79% at 107.81.

U.S. bond yields in the U.S. stock market stopped falling and turned up, including short bond yields rose more. 10-year U.S. bond yields once fell to 3.76%, then turned up to 3.83%; 2-year yields once fell through 4.50%, turned up and rose to 4.56%, almost recovering losses since November 10. The 2-year U.S. bond and 10-period U.S. bond yields were once inverted by more than 75 basis points, highlighting recessionary concerns.

Spot gold fell more than 1% during the day to as low as $1,732.10 per ounce and lost the $1,740 mark, which closed down 0.72% at $1,738.18 per ounce due to a stronger dollar and U.S. bond yields. Spot silver fell below the $21 mark, closing down 0.45% at $20.85 per ounce.

Before the U.S. stock market opened, foreign media rumored that OPEC+ discussed increasing production by 500,000 barrels per day, triggering an intraday plunge of more than 6% in U.S. crude oil and Brent oil, both hitting new lows for the year; WTI crude oil prices once fell to $75.27 per barrel, with Brent crude oil futures near-month contract entering a futures premium for the first time since August compared to the second-month contract. Then Saudi Arabia denied the discussion of increasing production and WTI crude turned up and returned to above $80 per barrel; Brent crude's decline narrowed to less than 0.5%. In the end, WTI crude closed up 0.14% at $80.25 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 0.23% at $87.62 per barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed lower, with the Dow closing down 0.13%, the Nasdaq closing down 1.09% and the S&P 500 closing down 0.39%. New energy vehicle stocks, popular Chinese stocks, charging pile sector fell in the lead, Tesla closed down 6.8%, the share price continued to hit a two-year low.

European stock indexes generally closed lower, Germany's DAX30 index closed down 0.36%, the UK FTSE 100 index closed down 0.08%, France's CAC40 index closed down 0.15%, the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.37%, Spain's IBEX35 index closed up 0.81%, Italy's FTSE MIB index closed down 1.28%.

Hot spots in the market

1. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates denied that the Wall Street Journal quoted sources saying that OPEC was considering increasing production by up to 500000 barrels per day, and said that the current production reduction of 2 million barrels per day would continue until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia and Russia also stressed that further production reduction could be made when necessary; The international oil price then easily recovered its 6% decline.

2. SMART, one of the largest railway unions in the United States, voted against an agreement brokered by the White House, raising the risk of a railway strike.

3. Germany recorded a monthly rate of - 4.2% in October, the largest decline on record, ending the growth trend since August 2020.

4. The aftereffect of the FTX incident expanded: After BlockFi was exposed last week to consider applying for bankruptcy, Genesis, another cryptocurrency company, warned that without new financing, the company would face bankruptcy.

5. [Speech by Federal Reserve officials] Daly: The policy is in a moderately restrictive range. At present, it is estimated that the interest rate will peak at about 5%. The actual impact of interest rate increase may be higher than that implied by the current interest rate target. Do not ignore the lag of policy impact; Maester: The Federal Reserve has just entered a restrictive position. If it does not see meaningful progress in inflation next year, it will respond.

Geopolitical situation

Conflict situation:

1. The Donetsk side said that the Ukrainian army shelled Petrov District, Kirov District and the municipal village of Donetsk.

2. According to Pravda Pravda of Ukraine: Three strong explosions occurred near the railway station in the north of Melitopol City, Zaporoge State.

3. Spokesman of Russian President Putin: The Kremlin did not discuss the new military mobilization plan.

Energy situation:

1. It was reported that Saudi Arabia sought OPEC+to increase production by up to 500000 barrels per day before the Western embargo on Russian oil was implemented, which was subsequently denied by the Saudi Energy Minister.

2. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak reiterated that he would not sell oil to countries that implement the oil price ceiling.

3. As the Russian attack increases the cost, Ukraine will increase the (transportation) cost of the “Friendship” pipeline, and Ukraine will increase the oil transit fee to 13.60 euros/ton from 2023.

4. The Ukrainian Electric Power Company reported that on November 21, it will cut off power in all regions of the territory as planned, which may last for 4 hours.

5. Norwegian Ministry of Energy: An agreement has been signed to assist Ukraine in purchasing natural gas.

6. According to senior market analysts, from November 1 to November 12, the shipment of Russian diesel to Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp (ARA) storage area increased to 215000 barrels per day, an increase of 126% over October.

Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：The bear market of US stocks will continue to be more optimistic about Asian stock markets until 2023

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The bear market of US stocks will continue to be more optimistic about Asian stock markets until 2023

3. MUFG：The rebound of sterling against the dollar may fade soon

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general consultation only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranty or representation on this material. The examples in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any information provided or omitted in this material in any way (including negligence). The characteristics of MHMarkets' products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statement provided on MHMarkets' website. Derivatives may be risky; The loss may exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

MohicansMarkets, (abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.