Mohicans markets：MHM Today’s News

December 8, 2022-Fundamental Reminder

☆ 07:50 Japan publishes revision for annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter, and trade balance for October.

☆ 21:30 U.S. releases initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 3.

☆ 23:30 EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending Dec. 2.

☆ The following day 02:00 ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech.

MHMarkets -Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Wednesday, December 7, the dollar index fell slightly, once down 0.7% and lost the 105 barrier, closing down 0.37% at 105.18. The euro lost 1.05 against the dollar, the pound rose against the dollar to 1.22, the dollar fell below the 137 barrier against the yen.

U.S. bond yields fell collectively, and 2-year U.S. bond yields fell more than 2% to 4.26%; 10-year U.S. bond yields fell more than 2.5% to 3.42%. The inversion of the U.S. 2-10 year Treasury yield curve reached 85 basis points, breaking the inversion record for three consecutive days.

Spot gold touched $1,790 per ounce intraday to the upside and spot silver approached the $23 mark. By the close of trading, spot gold closed up 0.85% at $1,786.14 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 2.43% at $22.73 per ounce.

Investors' recession fears intensified, and both U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil plunged 3% during the day, with WTI crude falling below the $72 mark and Brent crude once falling below $77 per barrel. Finally, WTI crude oil closed down 2.76% at $72.39 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 2.88% at $77.36 per barrel.

U.S. stocks extended their losses, with the Dow closing near flat and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing down 0.51% and 0.19%, respectively. The new energy vehicles, airline and cruise sectors were the top losers, while the precious metals sector performed better. So far, the S&P 500 has fallen for five days in a row, and the Nasdaq has fallen for four days in a row, both hitting a four-week low.

European stocks collectively closed lower, Germany's DAX30 index closed down 0.59%, the FTSE 100 index closed down 0.43%, France's CAC40 index closed down 0.41%, the European Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.48%, Spain's IBEX35 index closed down 0.71%, Italy's FTSE MIB index closed down 0.09%.

Hot spots in the market

1. Putin: Russia's nuclear arsenal is a deterrent force, and the risk of a global nuclear war is rising. There is no need for additional mobilization at this time.

2. Overnight US debt strengthened, and the 2Y/10Y interest margin deepened to 85BP; US stocks closed slightly lower, while Chinese stocks generally retreated, and the Golden Dragon Index closed 2.8% lower.

3. Forbes: Bernard Arnault of Louis Vuitton Group and his family won the of the richest man in the world in Musk for a short time.

4. The Peruvian Congress voted to impeach the President, and the President Castillo was arrested by the judiciary, and the Vice President succeeded the President.

5. U.S. Senator Warnock won the Georgia runoff election, and the Democratic Party won 51 seats in the Senate.

6. After the nickel trading storm in March, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) expressed interest in acquiring LME, but it was rejected.

7. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%, the highest level since December 2007. The Bank “considered” whether further interest rate increases were needed to curb inflation.

8. Blackstone suffered a redemption run, and its real estate income trust (BREIT) fund of about $70 billion triggered a 5% quarterly redemption ceiling.

Geopolitical situation

Conflict situation:

1. Putin: 150000 soldiers are mobilized in the special military operation area, including 77000 combat troops; There is no need for additional mobilization at present; The risk of a global nuclear war is rising.

2. According to the Washington Post: Ukrainian officials acknowledged that Kiev was responsible for drone attacks on airports in Russia.

3. Senior officials of the President's Office of Ukraine: Russian shelling killed 8 people in Kurakhov, eastern Ukraine.

4. NATO Secretary General: NATO is worried that the conflict in Ukraine will worsen in the spring of 2023.

Energy situation:

1. European Commission President Von Delain: The European Union may soon resolve the difference that the TTF natural gas futures price ceiling is 289 dollars/MWh, and implement the price ceiling by the end of 2022.

2. Western officials negotiated with Türkiye on the delay of oil tankers.

3. Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia: Russia is worried about the accumulation of oil tankers in Türkiye's Bosporus Strait, and is discussing this issue with insurance companies and transportation companies.

MHMarkets-Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：The US stock index is bound to open lower due to growing worries about economic recession

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%, which may trigger subconscious buying by the Canadian dollar.

3. MUFG：It is expected that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. If inflation improves and the economy deteriorates, interest rate increases may be suspended in January. The performance of the Canadian dollar behind that of the G10 currency will become the norm in the future.

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