Mai hui MHmarkets: July 7, 2023-MHM European Perspective

Market Overview

Spot gold oscillated slightly higher during the Asian session on Friday (July 7) and is currently trading near $1914.30 per ounce. While stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data overnight, especially ADP employment data, reflecting a strong U.S. labor market, reinforced expectations for a rate hike in July and raised expectations for an additional rate hike in November. U.S. bond yields soared, weighing significantly on gold prices.

Investors generally await the U.S. June non-farm payrolls report that will come out in the evening. The median market expectation is that the number of non-farm payrolls will increase by 225,000 in June, the unemployment rate will fall back to 3.6% in June, and the average hourly wage will fall slightly to 4.2% annually in June.

After a series of data overnight, the market generally raised expectations for the U.S. non-farm payrolls data. From this aspect, even if the evening U.S. non-farm payrolls data is stronger than expected by the market, the negative impact on gold prices may be relatively limited, because it has been partially digested by the market, when there may be a short fall after the “turning from bearish to bullish” market, to provide gold prices with the opportunity to rise; if the data is in line with expectations or weaker than expected, gold prices are also inclined to up.

In addition, due to the international trade tensions, gold prices are also supported by safe-haven buying; the dollar index overnight high retreat, Friday Asian market slightly weaker, but also to provide support for gold prices. Technically, overnight gold prices held the support near the 1900 mark, investors need to beware of the possibility of gold prices to continue the previous rebound trend.

U.S. crude oil is shaking and slightly up, which is currently trading around $72.09 per barrel. Overnight U.S. economic data performed stronger than market expectations, weakening market fears of a recession. In addition, OPEC will remain optimistic about next year's oil demand growth, Saudi Arabia raised its official oil selling price to Asian customers in August, and the US dollar index retreated after being blocked on its way higher, all of which provided support to oil prices. In the short term, the oil market has a long bias in the short term.

Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, raised the selling price of most of its crude to Asian customers in August, which was the second consecutive increase, after the country announced an extension of voluntary production cuts on top of a broader OPEC+ deal.

State-owned Saudi Aramco said in a statement it raised the official selling price (OSP) for August shipments of Arabian light oil to Asia by $0.20 a barrel from July to $3.20 a barrel higher than the Oman/Dubai offer.

OPEC is likely to remain upbeat when it first releases its outlook for oil demand growth next year later this month, with demand expected to slow from this year but still expected to increase at a higher-than-average rate, sources close to OPEC said.

This trading day, investors need to pay attention to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for June, the market is expected to add 225,000 jobs and the unemployment rate will fall to 3.6%, which is expected to be slightly positive for oil prices. In addition, investors need to pay attention to the changes in U.S. crude oil drilling data and news related to the international trade situation.

MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on July 7, Beijing time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1960

Overall Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1873-1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1960-1978-1985-1998-2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066-2077-2089-2097-2100

In   the subsequent period of spot gold, 1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1960 can be   operated as the bull and bear range; High throw low suction in the range,   chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above   strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 7. This policy is a daytime   policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation   Range: 21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9

Overall Oscillation   Range: 19.7-20.1-20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6-27.3

In   the subsequent period of spot silver, 21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9 can be operated as   the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up   and kill down outside the range!

Note:   The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 7. This policy is a daytime   policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday   Oscillation Range: 68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1

Overall   Oscillation Range: 62.1-63.7-64.5-65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1

In   the subsequent period of crude oil, 68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1 can be   operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range,   chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note:   The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 7. This policy is a daytime   policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220

Overall Oscillation Range: 1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303

In   the subsequent period of EURUSD, 1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220 can be   operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range,   chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above   strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 7. This policy is a daytime policy.   Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300

Overall Oscillation Range: 1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300-1.30000-1.30600

In   the subsequent period of GBPUSD, 1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300   can be   operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range,   chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note:   The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 7. This policy is a daytime   policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.