MHMarkets：November 30, 2023--Fundamental Reminder

TBD Opec + holds the JMMC and ONOMM meetings today.

18:00 EUR Inflation Rate YoY Prel (NOV)& EUR Inflation Rate MoM (NOV)

21:30 USDCore PCE Price Index YoY (OCT)& USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (OCT) & USDInitial Jobless Claims (NOV/25)& USD Personal Spending MoM (OCT)

22:15 New York Fed President John Williams delivers the keynote address.

22:45 USD Chicago PMI (NOV)

23:00USD Pending Home Sales MoM(OCT)

23:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (NOV/24)

MHMarkets Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Wednesday, the dollar index recovered from a more than three-month low on another stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth in the third quarter and repeatedly tested the 103 mark in U.S. trading, but failed to hold above it and ended up 0.10% at 102.84. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below the 4.3% mark to close at 4.259%; The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, retreated to 4.646%.

Spot gold held steady above the 2040 mark and briefly surged above the 2050 mark in Asia before settling up 0.16% at $2,044.17 an ounce. Spot silver oscillated around the $25 mark before settling down 0.02% at $25.02 an ounce.

Oil was on a roller-coaster ride, with WTI crude falling to an intraday low of $75.65 before recovering all its losses and turning positive to end up 1.52% at $77.67 a barrel. Brent crude fell nearly 1% and dipped below the $80 mark before rallying to near $83 and closing up 1.5% at $82.61 a barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and closed lower, with the Dow up 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.09% and the Nasdaq down 0.19%. General Motors (GM.N) closed up 9%, while Tesla (TSLA.O) and Microsoft both fell 1%. Pinduoduo closed up 1.9%, while Alibaba (BABA.N) fell 2.6%, a gap of about $1 billion. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.3%, with Bilibili (BILI.O) leading the decliners with an 11% drop and LI Auto (LI.O) falling more than 5%.

Major European stock indexes were mixed. Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.52%, Germany's DAX30 index rose 1.09% and Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.43%.

Market Focus

1. The US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q3)was revised at an annualized quarterly rate of 5.2%, beating market estimates of 5%.

2. Fed Beige Book: Economic activity has slowed since the last report, with consumer spending on nonessential items falling.

3. Fed Grand hawk Mester said that monetary policy is in a good position to flexibly assess future data, and whether to raise interest rates further depends on the data; Richmond Fed President Paul Barkin declined to take further rate increases off the table; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bosti said there was growing confidence that the downward trajectory of inflation could persist. Interest-rate futures are now fully pricing in at least one rate cut by May.

4. The White House confirmed that Mr. Biden will skip COP28 and that Vice President Harris will attend in his place.

5. According to foreign media, Opec + is considering new oil production cuts of up to 1 million barrels per day. Opec + consultations are continuing and no postponement of the Nov. 30 meeting is currently expected, two of the sources said.

6. Saudi Arabia extends olive branch to Iran, seeking investment cooperation to ease Palestine-Israel conflict.

Institutional Perspective

01

Morgan Chase

【Morgan Chase：U.S. stocks are expected to fall 8% next year】

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief global equity strategist at J.P. Morgan, said in a forecast that elections in countries including the U.S. could increase policy volatility as global growth slows, household savings dwindle and geopolitical risks remain high. The S&P 500 will end 2024 at 4,200, about 8% below its current level.

02

Societe Generale

【Societe Generale：Gold may continue to surge above 2,200 in 2024】

With gold back above $2,000 for the first time since May and looking well supported by bulls, gold could surge to new highs in 2024 on expectations the Fed will cut rates by as much as 150 basis points, Societe Generale analysts said. Analysts at Societe Generale see a break above $2,000 as the start of a bigger rally that could see gold stay around $2,200 an ounce for most of 2024.

03

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs：The RBNZ is expected to begin its easing cycle from the fourth quarter of next year】

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs noted that it continues to expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR steady at 5.5% before phasing in an easing cycle from Q4 2024.

To put that in context, Goldman's forecast OCR by the end of 2024 is about 80 basis points above current market pricing. Goldman Sachs believes today's hawkish tilt from the RBNZ is partly designed to build expectations for a scenario of “higher for longer” interest rates.