MHMarkets：March 11, 2024 Economic Highlights

Date: March 11, 2024

Economic Highlights (GMT + 8)

No high-impact event

Market Overview

Global Market Recap

Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated within a range during the Asian and European trading sessions but plummeted during the U.S. session due to an unexpected rise in the February unemployment rate. It managed a slight recovery supported by higher-than-expected non-farm employment data, closing down 0.067% at 102.74. U.S. Treasury yields saw mixed movements; the benchmark 10-year yield ended at 4.0769%, and the rate-sensitive 2-year yield finished at 4.4777%.

Bitcoin once again reached above the $70,000 mark, and Ethereum approached $4,000.

Spot gold prices surged during the U.S. session, briefly exceeding the $2,195 mark, but failed to maintain this level, closing up 0.89% at $2,179.16 an ounce. Spot silver was nearly flat, ending down 0.06% at $24.31 an ounce.

Concerns over sustained demand offset the positive news, leading to a decline in international oil prices. WTI crude closed down 2.05% at $77.93 a barrel, and Brent crude finished down 1.68% at $82.50 a barrel.

U.S. stock indices all fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.18%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.16%. Nvidia (NVDA.O) ended a seven-day winning streak by falling 5.5%. The blockchain sector continued its upward trend, with Marathon Digital (MARA.O) up 7.71%, MicroStrategy (MSTR.O) up 9.66%, and Coinbase (COIN.O) up 5.77%.

European stock indices mostly closed lower. The German DAX30 fell 0.16%, the UK's FTSE 100 was down 0.43%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.26%.

The Hang Seng Index opened higher and fluctuated within a range, continuing to climb in the afternoon before a slight pullback at the close. The market generally showed more gains than losses, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.76% for the week, despite a 1.42% cumulative decline. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.78%, with a cumulative weekly drop of 2.94%. Trading volume in the market was HK$86.688 billion. On the market, oil and gas producers and shipping concepts led gains, while biotech sectors rebounded; tech stocks like Weibo (09898.HK) and BYD Electronic (00285.HK) were up over 5% and 3%, respectively. UBTech (09880.HK) surged over 10% at the open but closed down over 12%.

A-shares saw collective gains; the Shanghai Composite was up 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.97%. Chip stocks soared, with multiple stocks hitting their upper limits, including Tongfu Microelectronics and Optoelectronics. Consumer electronics concepts strengthened, with Shengyi Electronics and Jingyan Technology among the 20% gainers. Other leading sectors included BC batteries, liquid cooling servers, shipbuilding, media and entertainment, and electric power, while pork, duty-free, tourism, coal, and liquor sectors weakened. Total trading volume across markets was about 860 billion yuan.

Market Highlights:

· U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm employment hits a new low since November 2023.

· ECB governing council member Simkus: A rate cut in June is very likely.

· Bitcoin climbs back above the $70,000 mark.

· Reports suggest the Bank of Japan is leaning towards ending negative interest rate policy in March.

· Some gold shops on Dubai's “Gold Street” see sales halved.

· National Bureau of Statistics: Increase in CPI month-over-month expansion.

· Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Proactively ahead in building 5G and computing power among other information infrastructure.

· World Gold Council: Continuous outflows from gold ETFs have little impact on gold prices.

Institutional Views:

1. Bank of America (BofA)

Bank of America highlights the complexity of central bank policy directions and their impact on currency trends, especially between the Euro and the US Dollar. June emerges as a key month, with decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank playing a crucial role in predicting currency shifts. BofA's insights point to a detailed understanding of how central bank actions could influence EUR/USD volatility, leaning towards a possible weakening of the USD over time due to the substantial global impact of Federal Reserve policies.

2. ANZ

ANZ adopts a neutral position on EUR/USD, forecasting a trading range between 1.085 and 1.10 for the next week. While the Euro may show some short-term strength, it's under downward pressure from possible changes in European Central Bank policy and inflation trends. Investors are recommended to be cautious with long Euro positions, staying alert to changing economic indicators and central bank decisions.

3. HSBC

HSBC advises caution due to the recent downtrend in the CHF, noting that the currency's movements are increasingly linked to global interest rate differentials, rather than direct interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Although the immediate outlook suggests further CHF depreciation, HSBC is on the lookout for signs that could alter this direction, particularly changes in yield differentials that might benefit the CHF. Given the present financial climate, a wait-and-see strategy is recommended, with the possibility of a CHF appreciation as global monetary policies change.