Today's Financial News

Market Overview

Chair Powell is very non-committal to cut rates this year. The FED has voted to hold interest rates steady, again. No progress with inflation in the first quarter. A rate hike is not the next move. He thinks that inflation is sufficiently restrictive. His personal view is that inflation will fall at the end of the year, but he is unsure if it is sufficient enough for the FED to cut rates. They mentioned holding rates for as long as possible. 

We see earnings better than expected through the first quarter. Earnings and growth have continued to hold up. Investors suggest diversifying one's portfolio. Use periods of volatility to diversify and balance your portfolio. In equities, look into S&P 493. The AI market is something to look forward to as it is a long-term investment. In your bond portfolios, do not overweight—there is a re-investment risk.  

Asia stocks started shaky coming into Thursday after the FED flagged a delay in rate cuts, while the dollar shorted against the yen which may be Japanese government intervention. Oil fell sharply overnight with Brent crude futures hitting a seven-week low of $83.44.

The focus on the stock markets today falls on APPLE where markets have braced themselves for a big drop in sales and to wait and hear of the companys plans to integrate AI into their iPhones. Meanwhile, the U.S. indexes ended up mixed. Energy, technology, and consumer staples led to a decline in the S&P500. 

The 10Y Treasury yield briefly broke below 4.60%

We also see the 3-month VIX opening on a high and ranging over 16, with prices hovering at about 50 points below 17. The FEDs continued pushing of rate cuts will affect consumer and investor confidence. 

The GOLD rose higher overnight and is trading above 2319.398. 

Middle East tensions eased as talks of a ceasefire between Gaza and Israel take place. However, we are also reminded that it is too early to say anything about this matter. 

GOLD -With tensions in the Middle East easing and the continued push of the FEDs rate cut decision, and their dismissal of a potential hike as data disapproves of this, they mention, GOLD has risen in value overnight. Although a higher timeframe suggests the formation of an M-pattern, it is important to take note of how prices will play around these levels as we may see the potential formation of an SHS from where the price is as it created the perfect scoop for orders to be taken into after it slid slightly below 2295.536. However, for as long as the price remains ranging between the structures, we do not call for GOLD for anything.

SILVER -We can see SILVER doing the same thing as gold with the potential to drop further. However, if it fails to drop, we may see the price range below 27.552. 

DXY - Weve now confirmed that the formation of the W in the 1h is simply the confirmation of a range in the lower timeframe. With this in mind, we can see the price aggressively get rejected off 106.394 and 105.523, making USD strength uncertain at the moment. However, we can already tell that there is a weakening in sentiment for the currency. During these conditions, it is better to go for other pairs amongst the majors and diversify trade options.

GBPUSD - The GBP continues to look bullish as the price stalls for orders within the daily range, above 1.25019. While we can see the potential formation of an SHS formation, we must wait to see if the price breaks below to test 1.24268 or push above 1.25740.

AUDUSD - The AUD plays the same scenario as the GBP as we see the price moving sideways, completing a potential SHS formation. However, we can see a price range between 0.65250 and 0.64801. It is important to note that current market conditions do reflect a ranging market. We need to wait for how the price will turn out from here.

NZDUSD -The NZD now is in a range between 0.59796 and 0.58856. While we continue to respect a higher timeframe downtrend, we must wait for a break above 0.59400 and a retest of 0.59796 or a break below 0.58856.

EURUSD - The price is consolidating between 1.07549 and 1.06660 with the potential to push the prices up and test the higher timeframe trendline. We can see the current price breaking through the SHS formation and reinforcing the W previous completion of the W formation. However, while we do not see a break above or below, we see the price stalling and collecting orders.

USDJPY -After a strong push from the Yen, we see the price get rejected by 153.239. We also see the price once again trying to push back up toward normalcy. We suggest staying away from the Yen and all its pairs during these market conditions.

USDCHF - After the price reached 0.92248, we see it get rejected by both the anchor point of the upward channel and the structure. We continue to see this pair as bullish as we see the price supported by 0.91473.

USDCAD - Higher timeframe UCAD continues to look into an uptrend with the potential to form an M pattern. With this in mind, we have to wait and see if the price will break below 1.37035 and 1.36612, or above 1.37881.