US Retail Sales Data Unexpectedly Declines; A Major Fed Governor Does Not Rule Out a Rate Cut in Mar

Hot spot tracking

• The U.S. retail sales month-on-month rate unexpectedly fell to 0.4% in December, lower than the expected 0.6%, the lowest since August 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending January 11 was 217,000, the highest since the week ending December 21, 2024. This news is bearish for the US dollar.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller believes that the possibility of a rate cut in March cannot be ruled out. If the data performs well, there may be three or four rate cuts this year. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee pointed out that the CPI data is encouraging but also raises concerns, and both have equal impact. This news is bearish for the US dollar.

• It is reported that the Bank of Japan believes that there is a high possibility of raising interest rates in January. This news is bullish for the yen.

Product Hot Comment

• Forex

• ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenEUR/USD▲0.05%1.029811.03011GBP/USD▲0.01%1.224081.22371AUD/USD▼-0.21%0.621560.62137USD/JPY▼-0.79%155.146155.169GBP/CAD▲0.40%1.7611.7616NZD/CAD▲0.23%0.806740.80669

• 📝 Review:The U.S. dollar index weakened on Thursday after retail sales data unexpectedly fell. It hovered around the 109 mark and finally closed down 0.15% at 108.94. U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.617%; the two-year Treasury yield closed at 4.234%.

• 🕵️ Operation suggestion:USD/JPY 155.384 Sell Target Price 154.394

• Gold

• ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenGold▲0.73%2714.352714.34Silver▲0.45%30.79230.785

• 📝 Review:Boosted by the continued decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, spot gold regained the $2,700 mark. It once surged above $2,720, hitting a new high in more than a month, and finally closed up 0.66% at $2,714.21 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 0.46% at $30.79 per ounce.

• 🕵️ Operation suggestion:Gold 2715.19 Buy Target Price 2747.52

• Crude Oil

• ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenWTI Crude Oil▼-1.65%77.81877.818Brent Crude Oil▼-1.48%80.39280.39

• 📝 Review:Crude oil retreated as investors expected a temporary calm in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. WTI crude oil fell to an intraday low of $76.86 at one point, and eventually closed down 1.58% at $77.81 a barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.44% at $80.39 a barrel.

• 🕵️ Operation suggestion:WTI Crude Oil 77.880 Buy Target Price 79.430

• Indice

• ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenNasdaq 100▼-1.02%20981.5521026.76Dow Jones▼-0.48%42994.143040.2S&P 500▼-0.48%5924.755934.45US Dollar Index▼-0.12%108.77108.8

• 📝 Review:The three major U.S. stock indices all fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.16%, the S&P 500 down 0.21%, and the Nasdaq down 0.89%. Apple (AAPL.O) fell 4%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell nearly 2%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) fell more than 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.2%, Douyu (DOYU.O) surged 27%, Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) rose 6%, and NetEase (NTES.O) fell 4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.65%, the S&P 500 rose 1.83% and the Nasdaq rose 2.45%. Meta (META.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose more than 3%, while Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 8%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.97%, Alibaba (BABA.N) rose 0.9%, Douyu (DOYU.O) rose more than 13%, and Li Auto (LI.O) fell 2%.

• 🕵️ Operation suggestion:Nasdaq 100 21030.880 Sell Target Price 20812.799

• Crypto

• ProductYesterday's ChangeYesterday's CloseToday's OpenBitCoin▲0.42%100107.899767Ethereum▼-3.28%3317.23293.2Dogecoin▲0.01%0.379940.37557

• 📝 Review:Judging from the overall trend, the bullish forces clearly have the upper hand in the Bitcoin market. As of the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin was below 99,900 points. Due to the rapid and sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin in the past two days, its rise has even exceeded the strength when it first broke through the 100,000 mark. The current time window seems quite unusual.

• 🕵️ Operation suggestion:BitCoin 100082.9 Sell Target Price 98200.4