U.S. Treasury Surge and Hammers Dollar

• U.S. long-term treasury surge to new high and weighs on the U.S. dollar.

• The market is awaiting the much anticipated Nvidia earnings report today.

• BTC dipped below $90,000 on mounting risk-off sentiment.

Market Summary

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as long-term Treasury yields continue to slide, with the 10-year yield dipping below 4.3%, its lowest level of the year. This decline has weakened the greenback‘s appeal, making it more vulnerable in the broader financial market. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s latest trade policies has further eroded confidence. Reports suggest that his administration is probing potential copper tariffs, opening the door for additional trade restrictions.

While the dollar struggles, the Japanese yen has emerged as the most favored safe-haven currency, driving USD/JPY below the 149.00 mark for the first time this year. The growing preference for the yen underscores mounting market anxieties, as investors seek stability amid rising uncertainties. Wall Street, meanwhile, has been left directionless, with equities struggling to find traction. The focus now turns to Nvidias highly anticipated earnings report, which could serve as a crucial barometer for the AI sector. A stronger-than-expected performance from Nvidia may provide a much-needed boost, particularly for the Nasdaq, which has struggled to gain momentum in recent sessions.

Over in Asia, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) continues to build on its bullish momentum, as optimism surrounding China‘s stock market recovery strengthens. The rally has been fueled by growing confidence in the AI sector following DeepSeek’s debut, with investors betting on sustained technological advancements to drive further gains.

In contrast, the crypto market has suffered a brutal sell-off, with major digital assets facing heavy losses. Bitcoin plunged below the $90,000 mark, driven by renewed concerns over security in the digital asset space following the Bybit hack, which resulted in a staggering $1.5 billion loss. The broader risk-off sentiment, exacerbated by Trumps increasingly combative stance on trade and rising geopolitical tensions, has further discouraged investors from taking on riskier assets.

Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (98%) VS -25 bps (2%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index weakened as soft consumer confidence data raised concerns about U.S. economic stability, fueling expectations of Fed rate cuts despite ongoing inflation pressures. Recent economic reports, including disappointing retail, services, and housing data, have added to market uncertainty, increasing downside risks for the greenback.

The Dollar Index is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 39, suggesting the index might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline.

Resistance level: 106.55, 107.30

Support level: 105.65, 104.30

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices experienced sharp swings, initially retreating as forced liquidations in crypto and equities led investors to cover margin calls. However, the metal rebounded as trade tariff uncertainties resurfaced, with Trump reaffirming his aggressive stance on global trade policies. Weak consumer confidence further reinforced golds safe-haven appeal, supporting a recovery in prices.

Gold prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 42, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI rebounded from the oversold territory.

Resistance level: 2920.00, 2940.00

Support level: 2895.00, 2880.00

USD/JPY, H4:

USD/JPY may extend its losses, weighed down by declining U.S. Treasury yields and weak consumer confidence. Februarys Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to an eight-month low of 98.3, down from 104.1, signifying growing economic concerns. Inflation expectations also surged to 6% from 5.2%, raising speculation over potential Fed policy shifts. In Japan, producer prices rose to 3.1% YoY, driven by higher service costs. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains focused on services inflation as a key indicator of sustained wage growth. Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the BoJ's data-driven approach, signaling a readiness to hike rates if wage growth continues.

USD/JPY is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 34, suggesting the pair might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline.

Resistance level: 149.50, 151.35

Support level: 146.95, 143.80