Markets Return: Key Data to Watch After Good Friday Break

The Week Ahead: Week of 21st April 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

After a long weekend following the Good Friday holidays, market volatility is likely to return. Investors are heading into the final full week of April with renewed focus on U.S. growth indicators, digesting a slew of key data spanning manufacturing, services, housing, and labor markets—all pivotal to shaping the Feds evolving policy stance. With interest rates remaining elevated and inflation proving stubborn, these indicators will be crucial in recalibrating market expectations on rate cuts. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties re-emerge as the U.S. mulls reinstating tariffs on select Chinese goods, raising concerns over renewed global supply chain stress, inflationary risks, and margin pressures for multinational companies.

Key Events to Watch:

Wednesday, 23 April 2025 – 16:45

US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

Previous: 51.9 | Forecast: N/A

US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr, Flash)

Previous: 51.8 | Forecast: N/A

As markets reopen after the long weekend, attention will center on the latest U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs. With trade policy uncertainty resurfacing—particularly the potential reimposition of Trump-era tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar components—manufacturers could face new cost headwinds. These PMI readings will be closely watched for signs of resilience or weakness in the broader economy. Better-than-expected prints could strengthen the dollar and reinforce confidence in U.S. economic growth, while weaker readings may prompt caution and raise questions about growth sustainability under persistent rate pressures.

Wednesday, 23 April 2025 – 17:00

US New Home Sales (March)

Previous: 662K | Forecast: 676K

Economists are expecting a modest uptick in U.S. new home sales to 676K, up from the previous reading of 662K. However, looming uncertainties—such as the potential implementation of tariffs that could raise construction material costs—pose downside risks. Coupled with the Feds firm stance on maintaining elevated interest rates, housing demand may face additional pressure. A significantly stronger-than-expected result would signal continued consumer confidence and economic resilience, likely lending support to the dollar. On the flip side, any disappointment may reinforce concerns about housing sector vulnerability.

Thursday, 24 April 2025 – 15:30

US Durable Goods Orders (MoM, March)

Previous: -1.0% | Forecast: +1.0%

Durable Goods Orders, a key indicator of business investment and manufacturing activity, are projected to rebound slightly with a forecast of +1.0% for March, following a -1.0% drop in the previous month. These orders track the value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods. However, potential inflationary pressures from newly proposed tariffs—particularly on high-tech imports—could cloud the outlook, especially for capital-intensive industries reliant on global supply chains. Markets will closely assess whether this momentum is sustainable amid rising input costs.

Thursday, 24 April 2025 – 15:30

US Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: 212K | Forecast Range: 205K–220K

Initial Jobless Claims will serve as another key gauge of labor market health. Continued readings at the lower end of the range would reinforce the narrative of a tight labor market, supporting the Feds “higher-for-longer” stance. However, any unexpected rise could spark concerns about emerging cracks in employment strength. With trade tensions heating up, job creation in export-sensitive sectors may come under pressure in the coming months. This data point could influence short-term sentiment around economic resilience and rate policy trajectory.