FPG EURUSD Market Report July 4, 2025

The EURUSD monthly chart shows a significant bullish breakout from a prolonged sideways channel that held price between approximately 1.0395 and 1.1220 from late-2022 through early 2025. After years of coiling within this range, the pair surged strongly above 1.1370 in recent months, closing above the 1.1763 level. This decisive move indicates a transition from consolidation to trend, suggesting bullish market sentiment and growing confidence in EURUSD's upside potential.

The breakout is accompanied by a rising Bulls Power indicator (Bulls 13), showing a clear increase in bullish pressure over the last few months. Price has also breached the upper Bollinger Band, a sign of strong momentum, though it may also signal overextension and the potential for a minor pullback or consolidation. The wide expansion of the bands supports the view of a high-volatility breakout, often associated with trend initiation phases in major timeframes like monthly charts.

Looking ahead, the next key resistances lie at 1.2236 and 1.2545 — both major multi-year swing levels. If price sustains above 1.1700–1.1370, the bulls are likely to remain in control, targeting these higher levels. However, any rejection from the 1.1800 psychological zone or signs of exhaustion could trigger a retest of the breakout level around 1.1370. Traders should watch for confirmation through continued bullish closes and volume expansion to validate this emerging trend continuation.

Market Observation & Strategy Advice

Current Position: Price around 1.17638, after confirmed breakout from long-term sideways channel.

Resistance: 1.22360 – Monthly structural swing high. 1.25453 – Multi-year resistance from 2018.

Support: 1.10230 – Lower support zone from the previous range.

Bollinger Bands: Breakout above upper band, rising volatility. Caution of potential mean reversion toward 1.1370 in case of exhaustion.

Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• Bullish Retest Opportunity: Wait for dip into 1.1370–1.1450 zone for bullish re-entry with target toward 1.2236.

• Momentum Continuation: If price consolidates above 1.1700, a run toward 1.22+ is likely.

• False Break Risk: A bearish rejection from 1.1800 with monthly close back under 1.1370 would re-open range trading bias.

Market Performance:

Forex Last Price % Change

GBP/USD 1.3664 +0.09%

USD/JPY 144.61 −0.20%

AUD/USD 0.6578 +0.11%

Today's Key Economic Calendar:

JP: Household Spending Mom & YoY

DE: Factory Orders MoM

FR: Industrial Production MoM

EU: ECB President Lagarde Speech

UK: S&P Global Construction PMI

Risk Disclaimer This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.