CNBC Daily Open: Inflation in the U.S. hit a four-month high in June — as expected

• U.S. President Donald Trump announces a trade deal with Indonesia.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praises China's AI sector.
• The Nasdaq Composite hits a record even as other indexes fell.
• ASML's second-quarter earnings smash expectations.
• Fund managers are bullish on European stocks, according to a survey.

Expectations are a funny thing. When we say that something meets expectations, we tend to mean it in a positive way, suggesting that a hurdle has been cleared or the result is welcome.

But what happens when we expect something bad, and the outcome meets expectations?

The U.S. consumer price index in June, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, matched the Dow Jones consensus estimate. And there was even a pleasant surprise: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% on the month, which was 0.1 percentage points below expectations.

That said, both the headline and core inflation numbers, on an annual basis, hit their highest since February.

“The latest U.S. inflation report practically confirmed that President Trump's tariffs acted to push up consumer prices in June,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.

Hence, while the inflation figures didn't surprise market watchers and investors — markets really dislike unpredictability —the fact that the downbeat expectations were realized still weighed on stocks, which mostly fell on the news.

As yesterday's market movements illustrate — and as many of us, after going through performance reviews with our supervisors, know — sometimes, meeting expectations isn't good enough.

What you need to know today

A preliminary U.S.-Indonesia deal.U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that under the trade agreement, U.S. exports from Indonesia will face a 19% tariff, while American goods will enter the Southeast Asian country tariff-free. Jakarta has yet to confirm the deal.

Nvidia CEO praises China's AI sector. Speaking at a supply chain expo in Beijing on Wednesday, Jensen Huang named DeepSeek and Ernie bot as “world class” models. He also lauded Chinese companies' open-source approach to AI, saying it is a “catalyst for global progress.”

The Nasdaq Composite hits a record. A 4% jump in Nvidia boosted the tech-heavy index, even as the S&P 500 and Dow retreated Tuesday. Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Wednesday. Shares of Chinese toymaker Pop Mart slumped over 6% despite issuing a bullish outlook.

ASML's second-quarter earnings smash expectations. The Dutch chip equipment maker beat estimates on net sales and net profits by around $200 million euros. However, ASML forecast its revenue for the current quarter will come in below market expectations.

[PRO] Fund managers are bullish on European stocks. A Bank of America survey of European fund managers found that 81% of respondents saw upside for the region's equities in the coming 12 months.

And finally...

Central banks are increasingly buying gold from local mines as prices surge

Traditionally, central banks acquire gold through the global over-the-counter market — typically centered in London — where gold is transacted via major bullion banks, priced in U.S. dollars, euros, or sterling.

However, 19 out of 36 respondents in the World Gold Council's latest central bank survey said they are buying gold directly from domestic artisanal and small-scale gold miners in local currency. Four are thinking of following suit.