S&P 500 Extends Five-Day Rally to Fresh Records as Fed Independence Faces Scrutiny

Market Overview

U.S. equities showed mixed performance ahead of major tech earnings releases. The S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive gain and closed at a new all-time high, while the Nasdaq remained firm. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined, dragged down by a nearly 20% plunge in UnitedHealth Group. The healthcare giant tumbled after reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue, issuing a soft 2026 outlook, and amid government proposals to maintain Medicare reimbursement rates. The stock suffered its worst single-day decline in 25 years.

Elsewhere, sector highlights stood out. Corning surged 15% after confirming a fiber-optic supply agreement with Meta valued at up to USD 6 billion. Micron Technology gained more than 5% after announcing an additional USD 24 billion investment in NAND manufacturing capacity.

On the macro and FX front, the U.S. Dollar Index fell more than 1% to a four-year low. Ongoing concerns over the Federal Reserves independence, combined with weak consumer confidence data, pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh intraday lows. The Japanese yen outperformed sharply, rising a cumulative 4% over the past three sessions. Offshore RMB strengthened markedly, breaking below the 6.94 level intraday for the first time in nearly three years, extending its strong appreciation trend this month.

Commodities and Cryptocurrencies

• Precious metals on a historic run: Spot gold posted its sixth consecutive record close, surging more than 3% intraday. While safe-haven demand remained elevated, silver entered high-level consolidation after its recent sharp rally.

• Crude oil lifted by Middle East tensions: The geopolitical risk premium returned, driving oil prices sharply higher late in the session, with gains at one point exceeding 3%.

• Crypto sentiment improves: Bitcoin traded higher in a volatile session, rising more than 2% intraday and reclaiming the USD 89,000 level.

Key Themes to Watch

• U.S. to hold air combat readiness exercises in the Middle East

• U.S. Central Command announced on the 27th that its Ninth Air Force will conduct a multi-day air readiness exercise to demonstrate rapid deployment, distributed operations, and sustained combat capabilities across the CENTCOM area of responsibility. According to CCTV News, the U.S. has reportedly briefed Israel on preparations related to potential actions involving Iran. Meanwhile, Iran‘s president held phone calls with the Saudi crown prince, and the foreign ministers of Iran and Qatar also spoke.

• Japan signals coordination with the U.S. on FX policy, yen jumps

• Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that Japan may coordinate with the United States on appropriate exchange-rate actions if necessary, triggering a short-term surge in the yen. Expectations of potential joint intervention have increased, after the New York Fed previously inquired with multiple institutions about USD/JPY pricing, which markets interpreted as a possible pre-intervention signal. While near-term depreciation pressures have eased, most institutions still expect USD/JPY to seek a new medium-term equilibrium in the 147–149 range.

Data and Events to Monitor (GMT+8)

23:30 (US) – EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (week ending Jan 23, thousand barrels)

Overnight

03:00 (US) – Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Upper Bound)

03:30 (US) – Fed Chair Jerome Powells Monetary Policy Press Conference