Weak Jobs Data Triggers Recession Fears as Amazon Sheds Market Value; Gold, Silver, and Crypto Face

Market Overview

Markets were thrown into a full-blown recession panic after an exceptionally weak U.S. labor report collided with renewed concerns over excessive AI-related capital spending in the tech sector. The latest ADP private payrolls data showed job gains of just 22,000, far below expectations, reigniting fears that the U.S. economy is losing momentum faster than anticipated.

U.S. equities sold off sharply, with all three major indices posting declines of more than 1%, as risk assets were indiscriminately dumped. On the corporate front, Amazon plunged 10% following its earnings release. While AWS delivered its fastest revenue growth in three years, investor sentiment turned sharply negative after the company announced plans to ramp up 2026 capital expenditures to USD 200 billion, representing a 50% year-over-year increase. The scale of spending overwhelmed the positive operating momentum.

Technology stocks came under broad pressure, with the Software ETF tumbling 5%, while heavyweight names such as Oracle and Microsoft broke key technical support levels. In contrast, U.S.-listed Chinese equities showed notable resilience, with Baidu and Meituan managing gains against the broader market selloff.

Macro markets shifted decisively into risk-off mode:

• Treasury Rally: Investors rushed into U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. Both the 10-year and 2-year yields plunged by 9 basis points, hitting their lowest levels in nearly a month.

• FX Volatility: A dovish stance from the Bank of England triggered a 0.9% drop in the British pound, while the U.S. dollar index rebounded 0.3%, climbing to a four-week high.

Meanwhile, commodities and cryptocurrencies endured a brutal liquidation day:

• Precious Metals Shock: The previously overheated precious metals rally suffered a violent correction. Spot silver collapsed 19% in a single session, briefly approaching the USD 70 level intraday, while gold fell 4% under heavy profit-taking pressure.

• Crypto Rout: Cryptocurrencies recorded their worst day since the FTX collapse. Bitcoin plunged 12%, breaking below USD 63,000, as global risk asset deleveraging accelerated.

• Energy Stabilization: Crude oil slipped roughly 2%, with markets closely monitoring the upcoming U.S.–Iran talks on resuming nuclear negotiations scheduled for Friday.

Key Themes Ahead

● U.S. December JOLTS Job Openings Miss Expectations Sharply

U.S. job openings fell to their lowest level in more than five years in December, significantly undershooting market forecasts. Additionally, the prior months data was revised lower, reinforcing evidence that the U.S. labor market was already softening toward the end of 2025. While the JOLTS report confirms a cooling trend, other indicators suggest the labor market is decelerating rather than collapsing.

● Bitcoin Suffers a Heavy Selloff

Bitcoin dropped 12% on Thursday, marking its lowest level in 16 months, as a synchronized global risk-off move pushed the worlds largest cryptocurrency deeper into a new downtrend. According to Coinglass, total long-position liquidations across cryptocurrencies reached USD 1.703 billion over the past 24 hours, with approximately 400,000 traders forced out of positions.

Some market observers warn that the decisive break below the USD 70,000 psychological level could trigger further forced selling in the near term, potentially driving prices back toward the post-rally lows seen earlier in 2024.

Events to Watch (GMT+8)

21:15 (US)

• Preliminary U.S. February 1-Year Inflation Expectations

• Preliminary U.S. February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Overnight

01:00 (US)

• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics