Mohicans markets：Gold Downside Support is Weak Oil Prices Focus on Channel Resistance

Key Dada

Fundamentals Overview

On Monday August 22, spot gold moved lower below the pivot point at 1749.31 during the Asian session, with first support at 1727.65. Spot silver erased all gains, falling below the pivot point at 19.06 and approaching first support at 18.82. WTI crude oil was under pressure below the pivot point at 89.81, with some support above 88.30. The dollar index held above the pivot point of 107.99 and stood at the 108 mark with little resistance in the short term.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully.The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 18, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View 

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1757 Uptrend and downtrend line resistance

1752 Wave resistance

1748-1749 Asian and European resistance

1745-1744 Asia and Europe Support

1740 Short target and intraday support

1730 0.618 Retracement support

1727.96 Intermediate Support

Technical Analysis

Gold started its downside on Friday. Although it briefly rallied to near 1758, it was then beaten down by a large amount of money and the decline continued into Monday. Coupled with still no significant growth in positions and a lack of new money coming in,gold is likely to continue to find opportunities to move lower ahead of the annual Jackson Hole conference. Most of the call and put options above the current price are reducing their positions, it probably because the institutions do not have much outlook for gold's rise. Bearish options are focused on the 1725-1740 range, where the action of plus and minus is staggered and could be a range for the next long-short battle.However,entering into this range is contingent on a break below 1740 intraday support.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 22rd. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO ·Technical Level · Spot Silver

19.75 Bullish decrease, bearish unchanged. Resistance at

19.5-19.6 Bullish increase, bearish decrease. Long target and resistance at

19.2-19.25 Bullish increase, bearish slightly increase, long target

19 Bullish increase, bearish decrease. Support at

18.7-18.75 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase. Support may be weak

18.5-18.55 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease, short targets

Technical Analysis

On Friday, silver followed gold all the way down. Although it had a small rebound on Monday but it had all fallen away. At present, the trading volume and open interest of silver are sluggish, which is not conducive to silver's speculative properties, and there are relatively few opportunities for short-term contrarian. Silver is testing the 19 mark at noon on Monday, and there are call options to increase positions here, which may be supported in the short term, but it is not as important as 18.94 during the day. If it falls below the 18.94 support within the day, the support near 18.7 may be weak, and there is a band support at 18.64, followed by the 18.5 bear target and the 18.2 midline 4 support.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 22rd. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

95 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, long target

92 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease but there is stock, upside energy is weakened

91 Bullish increase, bearish increase, long target and long and short fight for position expensive

90 Bullish increase, bearish increase and bears prevail, resistance

87.5-88 bullish decrease but stock, bearish increase, support level

85 Bullish slightly increased, bearish increased, bears target

Technical Analysis

Crude oil fell to around 88 last week and rebounded, but failed to break through 92. The recent issue of the Iran nuclear deal has added a lot of uncertainty to the market, and funds are waiting for the progress of the Iran nuclear deal. From the perspective of options changes, above the current price, there are active bets between 90-91 between long and short sides, and it is also the resistance of the downward channel of oil prices, and the competition here is more critical. Although there is a large stock of call options near 92, there are signs of bulls leaving the market, suggesting that the breakthrough momentum before the US market is limited. At 95 and above, there are call options entering the market one after another to lay out a mid-term rebound trend. On the other hand, the lower 87.5-88 is the main bet position for the bears below, and it is also the key support of the midline. A break below may return to the previous bearish target of 85. Overall, oil prices are supported near 88, and in the short-term, we still need to pay attention to whether oil prices can break through the upper edge of the descending channel at 90-91.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 22. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1.0250 Bullish increase, bearish increase and bears dominate, resistance level 

1.02 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target 

1.0150 Bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, resistance 

1.0075 Bullish increase, bearish increase and bears dominate, key resistance

1.0050 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance level 

1.00-1.0025 Bullish increase, bearish increase but bulls dominate, key support area 

0.9950 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, short target 

0.99 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply, support level

Technical Analysis

On Friday, the euro fell further against the dollar, stabilized after falling to the 1.0025 support suggested in last Friday's report, and fell into a narrow range. Judging from the new options changes, Europe and the United States are approaching parity again, the gap between long and short positions has increased, and 1.00-1.01 has added bullishness, indicating that some long funds are trying to hunt for the bottom, or can ease the decline before Europe and the United States break the parity. But 1.0050-1.0075 added put options, expected to suppress the rebound in Europe and the United States. Only by effectively stabilizing above 1.0075, can Europe and the United States be expected to rise further. The next resistance level is 1.01, which is the key bet level of call options and the level of huge stock of put options. If it can't break through, Europe and the United States will still face the risk of being under pressure and down. On the other hand, if Europe and the United States break the parity, the short target will first look at the low point area of 0.9950 in mid-July, followed by the integer 0.99.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 22. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.20 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease but there is stock, resistance level

1.1950 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bullish target

1.19 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bullish target

1.1850-1.1870 bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, resistance area 

1.1820 Bullish increase and there is stock, bearish increase greatly, key level

1.18 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, support level

1.1750 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bearish target

1.1650-1.17 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bearish target zone

Technical Analysis

Last Friday, GBP/USD failed to stabilize at 1.19, broke down in the European session, and stabilized after falling to 1.1791, falling into shock.From the perspective of new options changes, 1.18-1.1820 is expected to constitute a short-term key range. If the pound and the United States can stabilize above this range, you can pay attention to the rebound momentum of the pound and the United States.However, if the GBPUSD fails to stabilize at 1.18, it is expected to continue the decline.First look at 1.1750, followed by the 1.1650-1.17 range. The short bets in this range are not very positive, but the stock of put options is relatively high. If the GBPUSD continues to decline, it does not rule out the possibility that the market will reach this range.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 22. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.705 Bullishness decreases but the stock is large, the bearishness decreases, the trend resistance

0.695 Bullish increase and the stock is large,the bearishness remains unchanged,the first target of the rebound

0.68 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease but large stock,support

0.675 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase,support level

Technical Analysis

Australia and the United States stabilized near the key support of 0.685 on Friday, rebounded on Monday, and now reach the key point of the option near 0.69, where the short-term competition is more critical.If it stands above 0.69, it is expected to further test the first target of the 0.695 rebound. Only when it stands firm at 0.7 can it be expected to ease the downward trend. If it encounters resistance at 0.69, it is expected to test the key support of 0.685 again. If it breaks down, the bulls will lose the initiative, and the key points below are 0.68 and 0.675.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 22. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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